On the configuration of a regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction system to maximize predictive capacity

Limitations to operational weather forecasts exist in terms of availability of computer (and human) resources combined with operational deadlines. For operational weather services it is therefore important to utilize their resources to maximize the predictive capability. This study shows how forecas...

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Autores principales:	Morten KØltzow, Rafael Grote, Andrew Singleton
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Taylor & Francis Group 2021
Materias:	arctic regional numerical weather prediction operational forecast quality ensemble prediction system high-resolution initialization Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/b068e18694b2417c824fb413c7a6253c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:b068e18694b2417c824fb413c7a6253c2021-12-01T14:40:59ZOn the configuration of a regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction system to maximize predictive capacity1600-087010.1080/16000870.2021.1976093https://doaj.org/article/b068e18694b2417c824fb413c7a6253c2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2021.1976093https://doaj.org/toc/1600-0870Limitations to operational weather forecasts exist in terms of availability of computer (and human) resources combined with operational deadlines. For operational weather services it is therefore important to utilize their resources to maximize the predictive capability. This study shows how forecast quality in a state-of-the-art high-resolution regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system changes with varying configuration choices; (1) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), (2) higher spatial resolution, (3) atmospheric initialization by assimilation of observations, (4) surface initialization by assimilation of observations and by (5) changing the regional domain and location. Results from such inter-comparisons are useful guidance for (Arctic) weather forecast systems, and can together with information on e.g. user-needs and post-processing capabilities be used to maximize the operational predictive capacity. All configuration choices have a significant impact on the forecast quality of near-surface parameters, but the impact varies with parameter, region, weather type, lead time and part of the forecast evaluated (e.g. average errors or rare events). Higher spatial resolution and EPS are expensive, but are still promising to further improve state-of-the-art regional Arctic high-resolution NWP systems. In particular when forecasting rare events regional EPS shows huge benefits. Assimilation of observations in the initialization process of the regional NWP system has also a positive impact on forecast quality. Finally, although less pronounced, the choice of the domain size and location also has a significant impact and should therefore be chosen carefully.Morten KØltzowRafael GroteAndrew SingletonTaylor & Francis Grouparticlearctic regional numerical weather predictionoperational forecast qualityensemble prediction systemhigh-resolutioninitializationOceanographyGC1-1581Meteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENTellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol 73, Iss 1, Pp 1-18 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	arctic regional numerical weather prediction operational forecast quality ensemble prediction system high-resolution initialization Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	arctic regional numerical weather prediction operational forecast quality ensemble prediction system high-resolution initialization Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Morten KØltzow Rafael Grote Andrew Singleton On the configuration of a regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction system to maximize predictive capacity
description	Limitations to operational weather forecasts exist in terms of availability of computer (and human) resources combined with operational deadlines. For operational weather services it is therefore important to utilize their resources to maximize the predictive capability. This study shows how forecast quality in a state-of-the-art high-resolution regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system changes with varying configuration choices; (1) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), (2) higher spatial resolution, (3) atmospheric initialization by assimilation of observations, (4) surface initialization by assimilation of observations and by (5) changing the regional domain and location. Results from such inter-comparisons are useful guidance for (Arctic) weather forecast systems, and can together with information on e.g. user-needs and post-processing capabilities be used to maximize the operational predictive capacity. All configuration choices have a significant impact on the forecast quality of near-surface parameters, but the impact varies with parameter, region, weather type, lead time and part of the forecast evaluated (e.g. average errors or rare events). Higher spatial resolution and EPS are expensive, but are still promising to further improve state-of-the-art regional Arctic high-resolution NWP systems. In particular when forecasting rare events regional EPS shows huge benefits. Assimilation of observations in the initialization process of the regional NWP system has also a positive impact on forecast quality. Finally, although less pronounced, the choice of the domain size and location also has a significant impact and should therefore be chosen carefully.
format	article
author	Morten KØltzow Rafael Grote Andrew Singleton
author_facet	Morten KØltzow Rafael Grote Andrew Singleton
author_sort	Morten KØltzow
title	On the configuration of a regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction system to maximize predictive capacity
title_short	On the configuration of a regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction system to maximize predictive capacity
title_full	On the configuration of a regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction system to maximize predictive capacity
title_fullStr	On the configuration of a regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction system to maximize predictive capacity
title_full_unstemmed	On the configuration of a regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction system to maximize predictive capacity
title_sort	on the configuration of a regional arctic numerical weather prediction system to maximize predictive capacity
publisher	Taylor & Francis Group
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/b068e18694b2417c824fb413c7a6253c
work_keys_str_mv	AT mortenkøltzow ontheconfigurationofaregionalarcticnumericalweatherpredictionsystemtomaximizepredictivecapacity AT rafaelgrote ontheconfigurationofaregionalarcticnumericalweatherpredictionsystemtomaximizepredictivecapacity AT andrewsingleton ontheconfigurationofaregionalarcticnumericalweatherpredictionsystemtomaximizepredictivecapacity
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On the configuration of a regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction system to maximize predictive capacity

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