A clinical predictive model for risk stratification of patients with severe acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding
Abstract Background Lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) is a common presentation of surgical admissions, imposing a significant burden on healthcare costs and resources. There is a paucity of standardised clinical predictive tools available for the initial assessment and risk stratification of pa...
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| Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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| Formato: | article |
| Lenguaje: | EN |
| Publicado: |
BMC
2021
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://doaj.org/article/b083bee09789431b9f5fb0d0acc7d17a |
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| Sumario: | Abstract Background Lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) is a common presentation of surgical admissions, imposing a significant burden on healthcare costs and resources. There is a paucity of standardised clinical predictive tools available for the initial assessment and risk stratification of patients with LGIB. We propose a simple clinical scoring model to prognosticate patients at risk of severe LGIB and an algorithm to guide management of such patients. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted, identifying consecutive patients admitted to our institution for LGIB over a 1-year period. Baseline demographics, clinical parameters at initial presentation and treatment interventions were recorded. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify factors predictive of severe LGIB. A clinical management algorithm was developed to discriminate between patients requiring admission, and to guide endoscopic, angiographic and/or surgical intervention. Results 226/649 (34.8%) patients had severe LGIB. Six variables were entered into a clinical predictive model for risk stratification of LGIB: Tachycardia (HR ≥ 100), hypotension (SBP < 90 mmHg), anaemia (Hb < 9 g/dL), metabolic acidosis, use of antiplatelet/anticoagulants, and active per-rectal bleeding. The optimum cut-off score of ≥ 1 had a sensitivity of 91.9%, specificity of 39.8%, and positive and negative predictive Values of 45% and 90.2%, respectively, for predicting severe LGIB. The area under curve (AUC) was 0.77. Conclusion Early diagnosis and management of severe LGIB remains a challenge for the acute care surgeon. The predictive model described comprises objective clinical parameters routinely obtained at initial triage to guide risk stratification, disposition and inpatient management of patients. |
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