Forecasted Shifts in Thermal Habitat for Cod Species in the Northwest Atlantic and Eastern Canadian Arctic

Climate change will alter ecosystems and impose hardships on marine resource users as fish assemblages redistribute to habitats that meet their physiological requirements. Marine gadids represent some of the most ecologically and socio-economically important species in the North Atlantic, but face a...

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Autores principales:	David Cote, Cassandra A. Konecny, Jennica Seiden, Tristan Hauser, Trond Kristiansen, Ben J. Laurel
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	species distribution models thermal sensitivity climate change gadids spawning habitat eggs Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/b0854964cced41bfa615e632ba474ad0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:b0854964cced41bfa615e632ba474ad02021-12-01T13:08:53ZForecasted Shifts in Thermal Habitat for Cod Species in the Northwest Atlantic and Eastern Canadian Arctic2296-774510.3389/fmars.2021.764072https://doaj.org/article/b0854964cced41bfa615e632ba474ad02021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.764072/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745Climate change will alter ecosystems and impose hardships on marine resource users as fish assemblages redistribute to habitats that meet their physiological requirements. Marine gadids represent some of the most ecologically and socio-economically important species in the North Atlantic, but face an uncertain future in the wake of rising ocean temperatures. We applied CMIP5 ocean temperature projections to egg survival and juvenile growth models of three northwest Atlantic coastal species of gadids (Atlantic cod, Polar cod, and Greenland cod), each with different thermal affinities and life histories. We illustrate how physiologically based species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to predict habitat distribution shifts and compare vulnerabilities of species and life stages with changing ocean conditions. We also derived an integrated habitat suitability index from the combined surfaces of each metric to predict areas and periods where thermal conditions were suitable for both life stages. Suitable thermal habitat shifted poleward for the juvenile life stages of all three species, but the area remaining differed across species and life stages through time. Arctic specialists like Polar cod are predicted to experience reductions in suitable juvenile habitat based on metrics of egg survival and growth potential. In contrast, habitat loss in boreal and subarctic species like Atlantic cod and Greenland cod may be dampened due to increases in suitable egg survival habitats as suitable juvenile growth potential habitats decrease. These results emphasize the need for mechanistic SDMs that can account for the combined effects of changing seasonal thermal requirements under varying climate change scenarios.David CoteCassandra A. KonecnyJennica SeidenTristan HauserTrond KristiansenTrond KristiansenBen J. LaurelFrontiers Media S.A.articlespecies distribution modelsthermal sensitivityclimate changegadidsspawning habitateggsScienceQGeneral. Including nature conservation, geographical distributionQH1-199.5ENFrontiers in Marine Science, Vol 8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	species distribution models thermal sensitivity climate change gadids spawning habitat eggs Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5
spellingShingle	species distribution models thermal sensitivity climate change gadids spawning habitat eggs Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5 David Cote Cassandra A. Konecny Jennica Seiden Tristan Hauser Trond Kristiansen Trond Kristiansen Ben J. Laurel Forecasted Shifts in Thermal Habitat for Cod Species in the Northwest Atlantic and Eastern Canadian Arctic
description	Climate change will alter ecosystems and impose hardships on marine resource users as fish assemblages redistribute to habitats that meet their physiological requirements. Marine gadids represent some of the most ecologically and socio-economically important species in the North Atlantic, but face an uncertain future in the wake of rising ocean temperatures. We applied CMIP5 ocean temperature projections to egg survival and juvenile growth models of three northwest Atlantic coastal species of gadids (Atlantic cod, Polar cod, and Greenland cod), each with different thermal affinities and life histories. We illustrate how physiologically based species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to predict habitat distribution shifts and compare vulnerabilities of species and life stages with changing ocean conditions. We also derived an integrated habitat suitability index from the combined surfaces of each metric to predict areas and periods where thermal conditions were suitable for both life stages. Suitable thermal habitat shifted poleward for the juvenile life stages of all three species, but the area remaining differed across species and life stages through time. Arctic specialists like Polar cod are predicted to experience reductions in suitable juvenile habitat based on metrics of egg survival and growth potential. In contrast, habitat loss in boreal and subarctic species like Atlantic cod and Greenland cod may be dampened due to increases in suitable egg survival habitats as suitable juvenile growth potential habitats decrease. These results emphasize the need for mechanistic SDMs that can account for the combined effects of changing seasonal thermal requirements under varying climate change scenarios.
format	article
author	David Cote Cassandra A. Konecny Jennica Seiden Tristan Hauser Trond Kristiansen Trond Kristiansen Ben J. Laurel
author_facet	David Cote Cassandra A. Konecny Jennica Seiden Tristan Hauser Trond Kristiansen Trond Kristiansen Ben J. Laurel
author_sort	David Cote
title	Forecasted Shifts in Thermal Habitat for Cod Species in the Northwest Atlantic and Eastern Canadian Arctic
title_short	Forecasted Shifts in Thermal Habitat for Cod Species in the Northwest Atlantic and Eastern Canadian Arctic
title_full	Forecasted Shifts in Thermal Habitat for Cod Species in the Northwest Atlantic and Eastern Canadian Arctic
title_fullStr	Forecasted Shifts in Thermal Habitat for Cod Species in the Northwest Atlantic and Eastern Canadian Arctic
title_full_unstemmed	Forecasted Shifts in Thermal Habitat for Cod Species in the Northwest Atlantic and Eastern Canadian Arctic
title_sort	forecasted shifts in thermal habitat for cod species in the northwest atlantic and eastern canadian arctic
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/b0854964cced41bfa615e632ba474ad0
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Forecasted Shifts in Thermal Habitat for Cod Species in the Northwest Atlantic and Eastern Canadian Arctic

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