Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020

We aimed to estimate, albeit crudely and provisionally, national, regional, and global proportions of respective populations that have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the first year after the introduction of this virus into human circulation, and to assess infection morbidity and mortality rates, f...

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Autores principales:	Houssein H. Ayoub, Ghina R. Mumtaz, Shaheen Seedat, Monia Makhoul, Hiam Chemaitelly, Laith J. Abu-Raddad
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	SARS-CoV-2 COVID Coronavirus Epidemiology Severity Fatality Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/b22c99c9b7604319bd4bbb0e0d4ea2ce
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:b22c99c9b7604319bd4bbb0e0d4ea2ce2021-11-28T04:37:43ZEstimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 20202590-113310.1016/j.gloepi.2021.100068https://doaj.org/article/b22c99c9b7604319bd4bbb0e0d4ea2ce2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590113321000225https://doaj.org/toc/2590-1133We aimed to estimate, albeit crudely and provisionally, national, regional, and global proportions of respective populations that have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the first year after the introduction of this virus into human circulation, and to assess infection morbidity and mortality rates, factoring both documented and undocumented infections. The estimates were generated by applying mathematical models to 159 countries and territories. The percentage of the world's population that has been infected as of 31 December 2020 was estimated at 12.56% (95% CI: 11.17–14.05%). It was lowest in the Western Pacific Region at 0.66% (95% CI: 0.59–0.75%) and highest in the Americas at 41.92% (95% CI: 37.95–46.09%). The global infection fatality rate was 10.73 (95% CI: 10.21–11.29) per 10,000 infections. Globally per 1000 infections, the infection acute-care bed hospitalization rate was 19.22 (95% CI: 18.73–19.51), the infection ICU bed hospitalization rate was 4.14 (95% CI: 4.10–4.18). If left unchecked with no vaccination and no other public health interventions, and assuming circulation of only wild-type variants and no variants of concern, the pandemic would eventually cause 8.18 million deaths (95% CI: 7.30–9.18), 163.67 million acute-care hospitalizations (95% CI: 148.12–179.51), and 33.01 million ICU hospitalizations (95% CI: 30.52–35.70), by the time the herd immunity threshold is reached at 60–70% infection exposure. The global population remained far below the herd immunity threshold by end of 2020. Global epidemiology reveals immense regional variation in infection exposure and morbidity and mortality rates.Houssein H. AyoubGhina R. MumtazShaheen SeedatMonia MakhoulHiam ChemaitellyLaith J. Abu-RaddadElsevierarticleSARS-CoV-2COVIDCoronavirusEpidemiologySeverityFatalityInfectious and parasitic diseasesRC109-216ENGlobal Epidemiology, Vol 3, Iss , Pp 100068- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	SARS-CoV-2 COVID Coronavirus Epidemiology Severity Fatality Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
spellingShingle	SARS-CoV-2 COVID Coronavirus Epidemiology Severity Fatality Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Houssein H. Ayoub Ghina R. Mumtaz Shaheen Seedat Monia Makhoul Hiam Chemaitelly Laith J. Abu-Raddad Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020
description	We aimed to estimate, albeit crudely and provisionally, national, regional, and global proportions of respective populations that have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the first year after the introduction of this virus into human circulation, and to assess infection morbidity and mortality rates, factoring both documented and undocumented infections. The estimates were generated by applying mathematical models to 159 countries and territories. The percentage of the world's population that has been infected as of 31 December 2020 was estimated at 12.56% (95% CI: 11.17–14.05%). It was lowest in the Western Pacific Region at 0.66% (95% CI: 0.59–0.75%) and highest in the Americas at 41.92% (95% CI: 37.95–46.09%). The global infection fatality rate was 10.73 (95% CI: 10.21–11.29) per 10,000 infections. Globally per 1000 infections, the infection acute-care bed hospitalization rate was 19.22 (95% CI: 18.73–19.51), the infection ICU bed hospitalization rate was 4.14 (95% CI: 4.10–4.18). If left unchecked with no vaccination and no other public health interventions, and assuming circulation of only wild-type variants and no variants of concern, the pandemic would eventually cause 8.18 million deaths (95% CI: 7.30–9.18), 163.67 million acute-care hospitalizations (95% CI: 148.12–179.51), and 33.01 million ICU hospitalizations (95% CI: 30.52–35.70), by the time the herd immunity threshold is reached at 60–70% infection exposure. The global population remained far below the herd immunity threshold by end of 2020. Global epidemiology reveals immense regional variation in infection exposure and morbidity and mortality rates.
format	article
author	Houssein H. Ayoub Ghina R. Mumtaz Shaheen Seedat Monia Makhoul Hiam Chemaitelly Laith J. Abu-Raddad
author_facet	Houssein H. Ayoub Ghina R. Mumtaz Shaheen Seedat Monia Makhoul Hiam Chemaitelly Laith J. Abu-Raddad
author_sort	Houssein H. Ayoub
title	Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020
title_short	Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020
title_full	Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020
title_fullStr	Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020
title_full_unstemmed	Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020
title_sort	estimates of global sars-cov-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/b22c99c9b7604319bd4bbb0e0d4ea2ce
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Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020

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