Predicting the timing of cherry blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change.

Cherry blossoms, an icon of spring, are celebrated in many cultures of the temperate region. For its sensitivity to winter and early spring temperatures, the timing of cherry blossoms is an ideal indicator of the impacts of climate change on tree phenology. Here, we applied a process-based phenology...

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Autores principales:	Uran Chung, Liz Mack, Jin I Yun, Soo-Hyung Kim
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2011
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/b27a55f021fa4e119300ab640b0a6e2d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:b27a55f021fa4e119300ab640b0a6e2d2021-11-18T07:34:48ZPredicting the timing of cherry blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0027439https://doaj.org/article/b27a55f021fa4e119300ab640b0a6e2d2011-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/22087317/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Cherry blossoms, an icon of spring, are celebrated in many cultures of the temperate region. For its sensitivity to winter and early spring temperatures, the timing of cherry blossoms is an ideal indicator of the impacts of climate change on tree phenology. Here, we applied a process-based phenology model for temperate deciduous trees to predict peak bloom dates (PBD) of flowering cherry trees (Prunus×yedoensis 'Yoshino' and Prunus serrulata 'Kwanzan') in the Tidal Basin, Washington, DC and the surrounding Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change. We parameterized the model with observed PBD data from 1991 to 2010. The calibrated model was tested against independent datasets of the past PBD data from 1951 to 1970 in the Tidal Basin and more recent PBD data from other locations (e.g., Seattle, WA). The model performance against these independent data was satisfactory (Yoshino: r(2) = 0.57, RMSE = 6.6 days, bias = 0.9 days and Kwanzan: r(2) = 0.76, RMSE = 5.5 days, bias = -2.0 days). We then applied the model to forecast future PBD for the region using downscaled climate projections based on IPCC's A1B and A2 emissions scenarios. Our results indicate that PBD at the Tidal Basin are likely to be accelerated by an average of five days by 2050 s and 10 days by 2080 s for these cultivars under a mid-range (A1B) emissions scenario projected by ECHAM5 general circulation model. The acceleration is likely to be much greater (13 days for 2050 s and 29 days for 2080s) under a higher (A2) emissions scenario projected by CGCM2 general circulation model. Our results demonstrate the potential impacts of climate change on the timing of cherry blossoms and illustrate the utility of a simple process-based phenology model for developing adaptation strategies to climate change in horticulture, conservation planning, restoration and other related disciplines.Uran ChungLiz MackJin I YunSoo-Hyung KimPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 6, Iss 11, p e27439 (2011)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Uran Chung Liz Mack Jin I Yun Soo-Hyung Kim Predicting the timing of cherry blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change.
description	Cherry blossoms, an icon of spring, are celebrated in many cultures of the temperate region. For its sensitivity to winter and early spring temperatures, the timing of cherry blossoms is an ideal indicator of the impacts of climate change on tree phenology. Here, we applied a process-based phenology model for temperate deciduous trees to predict peak bloom dates (PBD) of flowering cherry trees (Prunus×yedoensis 'Yoshino' and Prunus serrulata 'Kwanzan') in the Tidal Basin, Washington, DC and the surrounding Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change. We parameterized the model with observed PBD data from 1991 to 2010. The calibrated model was tested against independent datasets of the past PBD data from 1951 to 1970 in the Tidal Basin and more recent PBD data from other locations (e.g., Seattle, WA). The model performance against these independent data was satisfactory (Yoshino: r(2) = 0.57, RMSE = 6.6 days, bias = 0.9 days and Kwanzan: r(2) = 0.76, RMSE = 5.5 days, bias = -2.0 days). We then applied the model to forecast future PBD for the region using downscaled climate projections based on IPCC's A1B and A2 emissions scenarios. Our results indicate that PBD at the Tidal Basin are likely to be accelerated by an average of five days by 2050 s and 10 days by 2080 s for these cultivars under a mid-range (A1B) emissions scenario projected by ECHAM5 general circulation model. The acceleration is likely to be much greater (13 days for 2050 s and 29 days for 2080s) under a higher (A2) emissions scenario projected by CGCM2 general circulation model. Our results demonstrate the potential impacts of climate change on the timing of cherry blossoms and illustrate the utility of a simple process-based phenology model for developing adaptation strategies to climate change in horticulture, conservation planning, restoration and other related disciplines.
format	article
author	Uran Chung Liz Mack Jin I Yun Soo-Hyung Kim
author_facet	Uran Chung Liz Mack Jin I Yun Soo-Hyung Kim
author_sort	Uran Chung
title	Predicting the timing of cherry blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change.
title_short	Predicting the timing of cherry blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change.
title_full	Predicting the timing of cherry blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change.
title_fullStr	Predicting the timing of cherry blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change.
title_full_unstemmed	Predicting the timing of cherry blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change.
title_sort	predicting the timing of cherry blossoms in washington, dc and mid-atlantic states in response to climate change.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2011
url	https://doaj.org/article/b27a55f021fa4e119300ab640b0a6e2d
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Predicting the timing of cherry blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in response to climate change.

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