Universal thermal climate index associations with mortality, hospital admissions, and road accidents in Bavaria

When meteorological conditions deviate from the optimal range for human well-being, the risks of illness, injury, and death increase, and such impacts are feared in particular with more frequent and intense extreme weather conditions resulting from climate change. Thermal indices, such as the univer...

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Autores principales:	Wael Ghada, Nicole Estrella, Donna P. Ankerst, Annette Menzel
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/b2a91ab709c847a9823ab50e605ab5f9
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:b2a91ab709c847a9823ab50e605ab5f92021-11-25T06:19:46ZUniversal thermal climate index associations with mortality, hospital admissions, and road accidents in Bavaria1932-6203https://doaj.org/article/b2a91ab709c847a9823ab50e605ab5f92021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8598056/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203When meteorological conditions deviate from the optimal range for human well-being, the risks of illness, injury, and death increase, and such impacts are feared in particular with more frequent and intense extreme weather conditions resulting from climate change. Thermal indices, such as the universal thermal climate index (UTCI), can better assess human weather-related stresses by integrating multiple weather components. This paper quantifies and compares the seasonal and spatial association of UTCI with mortality, morbidity, and road accidents in the federal state of Bavaria, Germany. Linear regression was applied to seasonally associate daily 56 million hospital admissions and 2.5 million death counts (1995–2015) as well as approximately 930,000 road accidents and 1.7 million people injured (2002–2015) with spatially interpolated same day- and lagged- (up to 14 days) average UTCI values. Additional linear regressions were performed stratifying by age, gender, region, and district. UTCI effects were clear in all three health outcomes studied: Increased UTCI resulted in immediate (1–2 days) rises in morbidity and even more strongly in mortality in summer, and lagged (up to 14 days) decreases in fall, winter, and spring. The strongest UTCI effects were found for road accidents where increasing UTCI led to immediate decreases in daily road accidents in winter but pronounced increases in all other seasons. Differences in UTCI effects were observed e.g. between in warmer north-western regions (Franconia, more districts with heat stress-related mortality, but hospital admissions for lung, heart and external reasons decreasing with summer heat stress), the touristic alpine regions in the south (immediate effect of increasing UTCI on road accidents in summer), and the colder south-eastern regions (increasing hospital admissions for lung, heart and external reasons in winter with UTCI). Districts with high percentages of elderly suffered from higher morbidity and mortality, particularly in winter. The influences of UTCI as well as the spatial and temporal patterns of this influence call for improved infrastructure planning and resource allocation in the health sector.Wael GhadaNicole EstrellaDonna P. AnkerstAnnette MenzelPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Wael Ghada Nicole Estrella Donna P. Ankerst Annette Menzel Universal thermal climate index associations with mortality, hospital admissions, and road accidents in Bavaria
description	When meteorological conditions deviate from the optimal range for human well-being, the risks of illness, injury, and death increase, and such impacts are feared in particular with more frequent and intense extreme weather conditions resulting from climate change. Thermal indices, such as the universal thermal climate index (UTCI), can better assess human weather-related stresses by integrating multiple weather components. This paper quantifies and compares the seasonal and spatial association of UTCI with mortality, morbidity, and road accidents in the federal state of Bavaria, Germany. Linear regression was applied to seasonally associate daily 56 million hospital admissions and 2.5 million death counts (1995–2015) as well as approximately 930,000 road accidents and 1.7 million people injured (2002–2015) with spatially interpolated same day- and lagged- (up to 14 days) average UTCI values. Additional linear regressions were performed stratifying by age, gender, region, and district. UTCI effects were clear in all three health outcomes studied: Increased UTCI resulted in immediate (1–2 days) rises in morbidity and even more strongly in mortality in summer, and lagged (up to 14 days) decreases in fall, winter, and spring. The strongest UTCI effects were found for road accidents where increasing UTCI led to immediate decreases in daily road accidents in winter but pronounced increases in all other seasons. Differences in UTCI effects were observed e.g. between in warmer north-western regions (Franconia, more districts with heat stress-related mortality, but hospital admissions for lung, heart and external reasons decreasing with summer heat stress), the touristic alpine regions in the south (immediate effect of increasing UTCI on road accidents in summer), and the colder south-eastern regions (increasing hospital admissions for lung, heart and external reasons in winter with UTCI). Districts with high percentages of elderly suffered from higher morbidity and mortality, particularly in winter. The influences of UTCI as well as the spatial and temporal patterns of this influence call for improved infrastructure planning and resource allocation in the health sector.
format	article
author	Wael Ghada Nicole Estrella Donna P. Ankerst Annette Menzel
author_facet	Wael Ghada Nicole Estrella Donna P. Ankerst Annette Menzel
author_sort	Wael Ghada
title	Universal thermal climate index associations with mortality, hospital admissions, and road accidents in Bavaria
title_short	Universal thermal climate index associations with mortality, hospital admissions, and road accidents in Bavaria
title_full	Universal thermal climate index associations with mortality, hospital admissions, and road accidents in Bavaria
title_fullStr	Universal thermal climate index associations with mortality, hospital admissions, and road accidents in Bavaria
title_full_unstemmed	Universal thermal climate index associations with mortality, hospital admissions, and road accidents in Bavaria
title_sort	universal thermal climate index associations with mortality, hospital admissions, and road accidents in bavaria
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/b2a91ab709c847a9823ab50e605ab5f9
work_keys_str_mv	AT waelghada universalthermalclimateindexassociationswithmortalityhospitaladmissionsandroadaccidentsinbavaria AT nicoleestrella universalthermalclimateindexassociationswithmortalityhospitaladmissionsandroadaccidentsinbavaria AT donnapankerst universalthermalclimateindexassociationswithmortalityhospitaladmissionsandroadaccidentsinbavaria AT annettemenzel universalthermalclimateindexassociationswithmortalityhospitaladmissionsandroadaccidentsinbavaria
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Universal thermal climate index associations with mortality, hospital admissions, and road accidents in Bavaria

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