Predictive values, uncertainty, and interpretation of serology tests for the novel coronavirus

Abstract Antibodies testing in the coronavirus era is frequently promoted, but the underlying statistics behind their validation has come under more scrutiny in recent weeks. We provide calculations, interpretations, and plots of positive and negative predictive values under a variety of scenarios....

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Naomi C. Brownstein, Yian Ann Chen
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/b305edd24a86475f98c58df64eca8c51
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:b305edd24a86475f98c58df64eca8c51
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:b305edd24a86475f98c58df64eca8c512021-12-02T13:19:28ZPredictive values, uncertainty, and interpretation of serology tests for the novel coronavirus10.1038/s41598-021-84173-12045-2322https://doaj.org/article/b305edd24a86475f98c58df64eca8c512021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-84173-1https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Antibodies testing in the coronavirus era is frequently promoted, but the underlying statistics behind their validation has come under more scrutiny in recent weeks. We provide calculations, interpretations, and plots of positive and negative predictive values under a variety of scenarios. Prevalence, sensitivity, and specificity are estimated within ranges of values from researchers and antibodies manufacturers. Illustrative examples are highlighted, and interactive plots are provided in the Supplementary Information. Implications are discussed for society overall and across diverse locations with different levels of disease burden. Specifically, the proportion of positive serology tests that are false can differ drastically from up to 3%–88% for people from different places with different proportions of infected people in the populations while the false negative rate is typically under 10%.Naomi C. BrownsteinYian Ann ChenNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Naomi C. Brownstein Yian Ann Chen Predictive values, uncertainty, and interpretation of serology tests for the novel coronavirus
description	Abstract Antibodies testing in the coronavirus era is frequently promoted, but the underlying statistics behind their validation has come under more scrutiny in recent weeks. We provide calculations, interpretations, and plots of positive and negative predictive values under a variety of scenarios. Prevalence, sensitivity, and specificity are estimated within ranges of values from researchers and antibodies manufacturers. Illustrative examples are highlighted, and interactive plots are provided in the Supplementary Information. Implications are discussed for society overall and across diverse locations with different levels of disease burden. Specifically, the proportion of positive serology tests that are false can differ drastically from up to 3%–88% for people from different places with different proportions of infected people in the populations while the false negative rate is typically under 10%.
format	article
author	Naomi C. Brownstein Yian Ann Chen
author_facet	Naomi C. Brownstein Yian Ann Chen
author_sort	Naomi C. Brownstein
title	Predictive values, uncertainty, and interpretation of serology tests for the novel coronavirus
title_short	Predictive values, uncertainty, and interpretation of serology tests for the novel coronavirus
title_full	Predictive values, uncertainty, and interpretation of serology tests for the novel coronavirus
title_fullStr	Predictive values, uncertainty, and interpretation of serology tests for the novel coronavirus
title_full_unstemmed	Predictive values, uncertainty, and interpretation of serology tests for the novel coronavirus
title_sort	predictive values, uncertainty, and interpretation of serology tests for the novel coronavirus
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/b305edd24a86475f98c58df64eca8c51
work_keys_str_mv	AT naomicbrownstein predictivevaluesuncertaintyandinterpretationofserologytestsforthenovelcoronavirus AT yianannchen predictivevaluesuncertaintyandinterpretationofserologytestsforthenovelcoronavirus
_version_	1718393291767021568

Predictive values, uncertainty, and interpretation of serology tests for the novel coronavirus

Ejemplares similares