Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector

Abstract Drought and heat stress affect global wheat production and food security. Since these climate hazards are expected to increase in frequency and intensity due to anthropogenic climate change, there is a growing need for effective planning and adaptive actions at all timescales relevant to th...

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Autores principales:	Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Louis-Philippe Caron, Andrej Ceglar, Andrea Toreti, Matteo Zampieri, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Margarita Samsó Cabré, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/b35ebd8fa37541c7a5a9e45b400e4fe0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:b35ebd8fa37541c7a5a9e45b400e4fe02021-12-02T18:24:48ZMulti-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector10.1038/s41612-021-00189-42397-3722https://doaj.org/article/b35ebd8fa37541c7a5a9e45b400e4fe02021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00189-4https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722Abstract Drought and heat stress affect global wheat production and food security. Since these climate hazards are expected to increase in frequency and intensity due to anthropogenic climate change, there is a growing need for effective planning and adaptive actions at all timescales relevant to the stakeholders and users in this sector. This work aims at assessing the forecast quality in predicting the evolution of drought and heat stress by using user-relevant agro-climatic indices such as Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Heat Magnitude Day Index (HMDI) on a multi-annual timescale, as this time horizon coincides with the long-term strategic planning of stakeholders in the wheat sector. We present the probabilistic skill and reliability of initialized decadal forecast to predict these indices for the months preceding the wheat harvest on a global spatial scale. The results reveal the usefulness of the study in a climate services context while showing that decadal climate forecasts are skillful and reliable over several wheat harvesting regions.Balakrishnan Solaraju-MuraliNube Gonzalez-ReviriegoLouis-Philippe CaronAndrej CeglarAndrea ToretiMatteo ZampieriPierre-Antoine BretonnièreMargarita Samsó CabréFrancisco J. Doblas-ReyesNature PortfolioarticleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350Meteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego Louis-Philippe Caron Andrej Ceglar Andrea Toreti Matteo Zampieri Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière Margarita Samsó Cabré Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector
description	Abstract Drought and heat stress affect global wheat production and food security. Since these climate hazards are expected to increase in frequency and intensity due to anthropogenic climate change, there is a growing need for effective planning and adaptive actions at all timescales relevant to the stakeholders and users in this sector. This work aims at assessing the forecast quality in predicting the evolution of drought and heat stress by using user-relevant agro-climatic indices such as Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Heat Magnitude Day Index (HMDI) on a multi-annual timescale, as this time horizon coincides with the long-term strategic planning of stakeholders in the wheat sector. We present the probabilistic skill and reliability of initialized decadal forecast to predict these indices for the months preceding the wheat harvest on a global spatial scale. The results reveal the usefulness of the study in a climate services context while showing that decadal climate forecasts are skillful and reliable over several wheat harvesting regions.
format	article
author	Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego Louis-Philippe Caron Andrej Ceglar Andrea Toreti Matteo Zampieri Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière Margarita Samsó Cabré Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
author_facet	Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego Louis-Philippe Caron Andrej Ceglar Andrea Toreti Matteo Zampieri Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière Margarita Samsó Cabré Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
author_sort	Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali
title	Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector
title_short	Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector
title_full	Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector
title_fullStr	Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector
title_full_unstemmed	Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector
title_sort	multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/b35ebd8fa37541c7a5a9e45b400e4fe0
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Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector

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