Coral distribution and bleaching vulnerability areas in Southwestern Atlantic under ocean warming

Abstract Global climate change is a major threat to reefs by increasing the frequency and severity of coral bleaching events over time, reducing coral cover and diversity. Ocean warming may cause shifts in coral communities by increasing temperatures above coral’s upper thermal limits in tropical re...

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Autores principales:	Jessica Bleuel, Maria Grazia Pennino, Guilherme O. Longo
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/b4312d8a9bb84f6a8896f2e43f67e4d9
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:b4312d8a9bb84f6a8896f2e43f67e4d92021-12-02T17:44:54ZCoral distribution and bleaching vulnerability areas in Southwestern Atlantic under ocean warming10.1038/s41598-021-92202-22045-2322https://doaj.org/article/b4312d8a9bb84f6a8896f2e43f67e4d92021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-92202-2https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Global climate change is a major threat to reefs by increasing the frequency and severity of coral bleaching events over time, reducing coral cover and diversity. Ocean warming may cause shifts in coral communities by increasing temperatures above coral’s upper thermal limits in tropical regions, and by making extratropical regions (marginal reefs) more suitable and potential refugia. We used Bayesian models to project coral occurrence, cover and bleaching probabilities in Southwestern Atlantic and predicted how these probabilities will change under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). By overlapping these projections, we categorized areas that combine high probabilities of coral occurrence, cover and bleaching as vulnerability-hotspots. Current coral occurrence and cover probabilities were higher in the tropics (1°S–20°S) but both will decrease and shift to new suitable extratropical reefs (20°S–27°S; tropicalization) with ocean warming. Over 90% of the area present low and mild vulnerability, while the vulnerability-hotspots represent ~ 3% under current and future scenarios, but include the most biodiverse reef complex in South Atlantic (13°S–18°S; Abrolhos Bank). As bleaching probabilities increase with warming, the least vulnerable areas that could act as potential refugia are predicted to reduce by 50%. Predicting potential refugia and highly vulnerable areas can inform conservation actions to face climate change.Jessica BleuelMaria Grazia PenninoGuilherme O. LongoNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Jessica Bleuel Maria Grazia Pennino Guilherme O. Longo Coral distribution and bleaching vulnerability areas in Southwestern Atlantic under ocean warming
description	Abstract Global climate change is a major threat to reefs by increasing the frequency and severity of coral bleaching events over time, reducing coral cover and diversity. Ocean warming may cause shifts in coral communities by increasing temperatures above coral’s upper thermal limits in tropical regions, and by making extratropical regions (marginal reefs) more suitable and potential refugia. We used Bayesian models to project coral occurrence, cover and bleaching probabilities in Southwestern Atlantic and predicted how these probabilities will change under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). By overlapping these projections, we categorized areas that combine high probabilities of coral occurrence, cover and bleaching as vulnerability-hotspots. Current coral occurrence and cover probabilities were higher in the tropics (1°S–20°S) but both will decrease and shift to new suitable extratropical reefs (20°S–27°S; tropicalization) with ocean warming. Over 90% of the area present low and mild vulnerability, while the vulnerability-hotspots represent ~ 3% under current and future scenarios, but include the most biodiverse reef complex in South Atlantic (13°S–18°S; Abrolhos Bank). As bleaching probabilities increase with warming, the least vulnerable areas that could act as potential refugia are predicted to reduce by 50%. Predicting potential refugia and highly vulnerable areas can inform conservation actions to face climate change.
format	article
author	Jessica Bleuel Maria Grazia Pennino Guilherme O. Longo
author_facet	Jessica Bleuel Maria Grazia Pennino Guilherme O. Longo
author_sort	Jessica Bleuel
title	Coral distribution and bleaching vulnerability areas in Southwestern Atlantic under ocean warming
title_short	Coral distribution and bleaching vulnerability areas in Southwestern Atlantic under ocean warming
title_full	Coral distribution and bleaching vulnerability areas in Southwestern Atlantic under ocean warming
title_fullStr	Coral distribution and bleaching vulnerability areas in Southwestern Atlantic under ocean warming
title_full_unstemmed	Coral distribution and bleaching vulnerability areas in Southwestern Atlantic under ocean warming
title_sort	coral distribution and bleaching vulnerability areas in southwestern atlantic under ocean warming
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/b4312d8a9bb84f6a8896f2e43f67e4d9
work_keys_str_mv	AT jessicableuel coraldistributionandbleachingvulnerabilityareasinsouthwesternatlanticunderoceanwarming AT mariagraziapennino coraldistributionandbleachingvulnerabilityareasinsouthwesternatlanticunderoceanwarming AT guilhermeolongo coraldistributionandbleachingvulnerabilityareasinsouthwesternatlanticunderoceanwarming
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Coral distribution and bleaching vulnerability areas in Southwestern Atlantic under ocean warming

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