Moving Earth (not heaven): A novel approach to tropical cyclone impact modelling, demonstrated for New Zealand

Some of the historically highest-impact weather events to affect New Zealand have been caused by ex-tropical cyclones (ex-TCs) which have had significant direct and indirect adverse effects. The weather theme of a New Zealand government funded research programme known as the Resilience to Nature’s C...

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Autores principales:	Ian A. Boutle, Stuart Moore, Richard Turner
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Tropical cyclones Risk modelling High-resolution simulations Unified model Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/b432e622f806407bab6c14b29e430988
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:b432e622f806407bab6c14b29e4309882021-11-30T04:15:51ZMoving Earth (not heaven): A novel approach to tropical cyclone impact modelling, demonstrated for New Zealand2212-094710.1016/j.wace.2021.100395https://doaj.org/article/b432e622f806407bab6c14b29e4309882021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094721000839https://doaj.org/toc/2212-0947Some of the historically highest-impact weather events to affect New Zealand have been caused by ex-tropical cyclones (ex-TCs) which have had significant direct and indirect adverse effects. The weather theme of a New Zealand government funded research programme known as the Resilience to Nature’s Challenges (RNC2) aims to create physical datasets of high-impact, yet credible, extreme weather events not previously available to researchers and end-users. This paper focusses on the potential scenarios of a major ex-TC impacting Auckland and surrounding areas in the north of New Zealand. Highly-detailed, meteorologically consistent data of such events are produced by relocating the New Zealand land mass into the path of historical ex-TC cases, using convection permitting simulations of the Met Office Unified Model. We illustrate the applicability of this method over simpler (non-consistent) methods, and show for ex-TC Cook (April 2017) what wind strength and precipitation totals would have been for a track just slightly to the west of reality. Finally, we illustrate how sub-kilometre simulations nested within the main simulation can add significant additional detail at the city scale, and show how simple modifications, for example raising the sea-surface temperature, can illustrate how events may change in future. Such scenarios may prove invaluable in designing future infrastructure and planning for such an event.Ian A. BoutleStuart MooreRichard TurnerElsevierarticleTropical cyclonesRisk modellingHigh-resolution simulationsUnified modelMeteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENWeather and Climate Extremes, Vol 34, Iss , Pp 100395- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Tropical cyclones Risk modelling High-resolution simulations Unified model Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Tropical cyclones Risk modelling High-resolution simulations Unified model Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Ian A. Boutle Stuart Moore Richard Turner Moving Earth (not heaven): A novel approach to tropical cyclone impact modelling, demonstrated for New Zealand
description	Some of the historically highest-impact weather events to affect New Zealand have been caused by ex-tropical cyclones (ex-TCs) which have had significant direct and indirect adverse effects. The weather theme of a New Zealand government funded research programme known as the Resilience to Nature’s Challenges (RNC2) aims to create physical datasets of high-impact, yet credible, extreme weather events not previously available to researchers and end-users. This paper focusses on the potential scenarios of a major ex-TC impacting Auckland and surrounding areas in the north of New Zealand. Highly-detailed, meteorologically consistent data of such events are produced by relocating the New Zealand land mass into the path of historical ex-TC cases, using convection permitting simulations of the Met Office Unified Model. We illustrate the applicability of this method over simpler (non-consistent) methods, and show for ex-TC Cook (April 2017) what wind strength and precipitation totals would have been for a track just slightly to the west of reality. Finally, we illustrate how sub-kilometre simulations nested within the main simulation can add significant additional detail at the city scale, and show how simple modifications, for example raising the sea-surface temperature, can illustrate how events may change in future. Such scenarios may prove invaluable in designing future infrastructure and planning for such an event.
format	article
author	Ian A. Boutle Stuart Moore Richard Turner
author_facet	Ian A. Boutle Stuart Moore Richard Turner
author_sort	Ian A. Boutle
title	Moving Earth (not heaven): A novel approach to tropical cyclone impact modelling, demonstrated for New Zealand
title_short	Moving Earth (not heaven): A novel approach to tropical cyclone impact modelling, demonstrated for New Zealand
title_full	Moving Earth (not heaven): A novel approach to tropical cyclone impact modelling, demonstrated for New Zealand
title_fullStr	Moving Earth (not heaven): A novel approach to tropical cyclone impact modelling, demonstrated for New Zealand
title_full_unstemmed	Moving Earth (not heaven): A novel approach to tropical cyclone impact modelling, demonstrated for New Zealand
title_sort	moving earth (not heaven): a novel approach to tropical cyclone impact modelling, demonstrated for new zealand
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/b432e622f806407bab6c14b29e430988
work_keys_str_mv	AT ianaboutle movingearthnotheavenanovelapproachtotropicalcycloneimpactmodellingdemonstratedfornewzealand AT stuartmoore movingearthnotheavenanovelapproachtotropicalcycloneimpactmodellingdemonstratedfornewzealand AT richardturner movingearthnotheavenanovelapproachtotropicalcycloneimpactmodellingdemonstratedfornewzealand
_version_	1718406826584702976

Moving Earth (not heaven): A novel approach to tropical cyclone impact modelling, demonstrated for New Zealand

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