The impact of climate change on indigenous Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica): predicting future trends and identifying priorities.

Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate approp...

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Autores principales:	Aaron P Davis, Tadesse Woldemariam Gole, Susana Baena, Justin Moat
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/b4402eba15794c6bbd099fe063708bbd
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:b4402eba15794c6bbd099fe063708bbd2021-11-18T08:09:49ZThe impact of climate change on indigenous Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica): predicting future trends and identifying priorities.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0047981https://doaj.org/article/b4402eba15794c6bbd099fe063708bbd2012-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23144840/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020-2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies 'core localities' that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations will be neagtively impacted by climate change.Aaron P DavisTadesse Woldemariam GoleSusana BaenaJustin MoatPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 7, Iss 11, p e47981 (2012)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Aaron P Davis Tadesse Woldemariam Gole Susana Baena Justin Moat The impact of climate change on indigenous Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica): predicting future trends and identifying priorities.
description	Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020-2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies 'core localities' that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations will be neagtively impacted by climate change.
format	article
author	Aaron P Davis Tadesse Woldemariam Gole Susana Baena Justin Moat
author_facet	Aaron P Davis Tadesse Woldemariam Gole Susana Baena Justin Moat
author_sort	Aaron P Davis
title	The impact of climate change on indigenous Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica): predicting future trends and identifying priorities.
title_short	The impact of climate change on indigenous Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica): predicting future trends and identifying priorities.
title_full	The impact of climate change on indigenous Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica): predicting future trends and identifying priorities.
title_fullStr	The impact of climate change on indigenous Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica): predicting future trends and identifying priorities.
title_full_unstemmed	The impact of climate change on indigenous Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica): predicting future trends and identifying priorities.
title_sort	impact of climate change on indigenous arabica coffee (coffea arabica): predicting future trends and identifying priorities.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2012
url	https://doaj.org/article/b4402eba15794c6bbd099fe063708bbd
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The impact of climate change on indigenous Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica): predicting future trends and identifying priorities.

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