Bayesian Network analysis of piglet scours

Abstract Diarrhoeal disease (scours) in piglets, often associated with enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), is a substantial financial burden to the pig industry worldwide. Previous research has not explicitly examined the relationships between farm, pen and microbiological factors. Here we pres...

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Autores principales:	Benjamin J. J. McCormick, Lechelle K. Van Breda, Michael P. Ward
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/b47d0a77db434faeb5e4bffc8609aad8
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:b47d0a77db434faeb5e4bffc8609aad82021-12-02T15:05:03ZBayesian Network analysis of piglet scours10.1038/s41598-017-06399-22045-2322https://doaj.org/article/b47d0a77db434faeb5e4bffc8609aad82017-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06399-2https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Diarrhoeal disease (scours) in piglets, often associated with enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), is a substantial financial burden to the pig industry worldwide. Previous research has not explicitly examined the relationships between farm, pen and microbiological factors. Here we present a state of the art analysis to reveal empirical indirect – as well as direct – associations between management factors as putative risks for scours in pre- and post-weaned piglets. A Bayesian Network is constructed to identify the optimal structural model describing the relationships between risk factors. An additive model is then built to estimate more epidemiologically familiar odds ratios. Farm-level variance dominates the model, making many pen-level associations null. However, there is evidence that pre-weaning scours are less likely on farms with <400 sows (0.14, 0.03–0.50). Our results strongly suggest that smaller production units (piglets/pen) could reduce the incidence of scours in piglets. There is also some evidence that ownership of other livestock is a potential risk factor for pre-weaning scours, although this was observed only at one farm. Future research should be directed at better understanding the role of herd size and investigating the relationship between managing other livestock and the occurrence of scours in pig herds.Benjamin J. J. McCormickLechelle K. Van BredaMichael P. WardNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Benjamin J. J. McCormick Lechelle K. Van Breda Michael P. Ward Bayesian Network analysis of piglet scours
description	Abstract Diarrhoeal disease (scours) in piglets, often associated with enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), is a substantial financial burden to the pig industry worldwide. Previous research has not explicitly examined the relationships between farm, pen and microbiological factors. Here we present a state of the art analysis to reveal empirical indirect – as well as direct – associations between management factors as putative risks for scours in pre- and post-weaned piglets. A Bayesian Network is constructed to identify the optimal structural model describing the relationships between risk factors. An additive model is then built to estimate more epidemiologically familiar odds ratios. Farm-level variance dominates the model, making many pen-level associations null. However, there is evidence that pre-weaning scours are less likely on farms with <400 sows (0.14, 0.03–0.50). Our results strongly suggest that smaller production units (piglets/pen) could reduce the incidence of scours in piglets. There is also some evidence that ownership of other livestock is a potential risk factor for pre-weaning scours, although this was observed only at one farm. Future research should be directed at better understanding the role of herd size and investigating the relationship between managing other livestock and the occurrence of scours in pig herds.
format	article
author	Benjamin J. J. McCormick Lechelle K. Van Breda Michael P. Ward
author_facet	Benjamin J. J. McCormick Lechelle K. Van Breda Michael P. Ward
author_sort	Benjamin J. J. McCormick
title	Bayesian Network analysis of piglet scours
title_short	Bayesian Network analysis of piglet scours
title_full	Bayesian Network analysis of piglet scours
title_fullStr	Bayesian Network analysis of piglet scours
title_full_unstemmed	Bayesian Network analysis of piglet scours
title_sort	bayesian network analysis of piglet scours
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/b47d0a77db434faeb5e4bffc8609aad8
work_keys_str_mv	AT benjaminjjmccormick bayesiannetworkanalysisofpigletscours AT lechellekvanbreda bayesiannetworkanalysisofpigletscours AT michaelpward bayesiannetworkanalysisofpigletscours
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Bayesian Network analysis of piglet scours

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