Managing Uncertainty in Scots Pine Range-Wide Adaptation Under Climate Change

Forests provide important ecosystem services and renewable materials. Yet, under a future climate, optimal conditions will likely shift outside the current range for some tree species. This will challenge the persistence of populations to rely on inherent plasticity and genetic diversity to acclimat...

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Autores principales:	Henrik R. Hallingbäck, Vanessa Burton, Natalia Vizcaíno-Palomar, Felix Trotter, Mateusz Liziniewicz, Maurizio Marchi, Mats Berlin, Duncan Ray, Marta Benito Garzón
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	adaptation tree height mixed-effect models climate change Spain Nordic countries of Europe Evolution QH359-425 Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/b48dc2185396466e9bc69c12b5180708
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:b48dc2185396466e9bc69c12b51807082021-11-12T05:45:01ZManaging Uncertainty in Scots Pine Range-Wide Adaptation Under Climate Change2296-701X10.3389/fevo.2021.724051https://doaj.org/article/b48dc2185396466e9bc69c12b51807082021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2021.724051/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2296-701XForests provide important ecosystem services and renewable materials. Yet, under a future climate, optimal conditions will likely shift outside the current range for some tree species. This will challenge the persistence of populations to rely on inherent plasticity and genetic diversity to acclimate or adapt to future uncertain conditions. An opportunity to study such processes is offered by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), a forest tree with a large distribution range including populations locally adapted to a wide variety of environments, which hinders a range-wide assessment of the species to climate change. Here we evaluate tree height growth uncertainty of Scots pine marginal populations in Spain and the Nordic countries linked to their genetic adaptation promoted by different climatic drivers. Our aims are to: (i) review the main climatic drivers of Scots pine adaptation across its range; (ii) undertake provenance-based modeling and prediction of tree height under current and future climate scenarios including four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and five general circulation models (GCMs) at two extremes of its climatic niche; (iii) estimate uncertainty in population tree height linked to the main drivers of local adaptation that may change among RCPs and GCMs in the Nordic countries and Spain. Our models revealed that tree height adaptation is mostly driven by drought in Spain and by photoperiod in the Nordic countries, whereas the literature review also highlighted temperature as a climatic driver for the Nordic region. Model predictions for the Nordic countries showed an overall increase in tree height but with high uncertainty in magnitude depending on the RCPs and GCMs whereas predictions for Spain showed tree height to be maintained in the north and reduced in the south, but with similar magnitudes among RCPs and GCMs. Both models predicted tree height outside the data range used to develop the models (extrapolation). Predictions using higher emission RCPs resulted in larger extrapolated areas, constituting a further source of uncertainty. An expanded network of Scots pine field trials throughout Europe, facilitated by data collection and international research collaboration, would limit the need for uncertain predictions based on extrapolation.Henrik R. HallingbäckVanessa BurtonNatalia Vizcaíno-PalomarFelix TrotterMateusz LiziniewiczMaurizio MarchiMats BerlinDuncan RayMarta Benito GarzónFrontiers Media S.A.articleadaptationtree heightmixed-effect modelsclimate changeSpainNordic countries of EuropeEvolutionQH359-425EcologyQH540-549.5ENFrontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Vol 9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	adaptation tree height mixed-effect models climate change Spain Nordic countries of Europe Evolution QH359-425 Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	adaptation tree height mixed-effect models climate change Spain Nordic countries of Europe Evolution QH359-425 Ecology QH540-549.5 Henrik R. Hallingbäck Vanessa Burton Natalia Vizcaíno-Palomar Felix Trotter Mateusz Liziniewicz Maurizio Marchi Mats Berlin Duncan Ray Marta Benito Garzón Managing Uncertainty in Scots Pine Range-Wide Adaptation Under Climate Change
description	Forests provide important ecosystem services and renewable materials. Yet, under a future climate, optimal conditions will likely shift outside the current range for some tree species. This will challenge the persistence of populations to rely on inherent plasticity and genetic diversity to acclimate or adapt to future uncertain conditions. An opportunity to study such processes is offered by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), a forest tree with a large distribution range including populations locally adapted to a wide variety of environments, which hinders a range-wide assessment of the species to climate change. Here we evaluate tree height growth uncertainty of Scots pine marginal populations in Spain and the Nordic countries linked to their genetic adaptation promoted by different climatic drivers. Our aims are to: (i) review the main climatic drivers of Scots pine adaptation across its range; (ii) undertake provenance-based modeling and prediction of tree height under current and future climate scenarios including four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and five general circulation models (GCMs) at two extremes of its climatic niche; (iii) estimate uncertainty in population tree height linked to the main drivers of local adaptation that may change among RCPs and GCMs in the Nordic countries and Spain. Our models revealed that tree height adaptation is mostly driven by drought in Spain and by photoperiod in the Nordic countries, whereas the literature review also highlighted temperature as a climatic driver for the Nordic region. Model predictions for the Nordic countries showed an overall increase in tree height but with high uncertainty in magnitude depending on the RCPs and GCMs whereas predictions for Spain showed tree height to be maintained in the north and reduced in the south, but with similar magnitudes among RCPs and GCMs. Both models predicted tree height outside the data range used to develop the models (extrapolation). Predictions using higher emission RCPs resulted in larger extrapolated areas, constituting a further source of uncertainty. An expanded network of Scots pine field trials throughout Europe, facilitated by data collection and international research collaboration, would limit the need for uncertain predictions based on extrapolation.
format	article
author	Henrik R. Hallingbäck Vanessa Burton Natalia Vizcaíno-Palomar Felix Trotter Mateusz Liziniewicz Maurizio Marchi Mats Berlin Duncan Ray Marta Benito Garzón
author_facet	Henrik R. Hallingbäck Vanessa Burton Natalia Vizcaíno-Palomar Felix Trotter Mateusz Liziniewicz Maurizio Marchi Mats Berlin Duncan Ray Marta Benito Garzón
author_sort	Henrik R. Hallingbäck
title	Managing Uncertainty in Scots Pine Range-Wide Adaptation Under Climate Change
title_short	Managing Uncertainty in Scots Pine Range-Wide Adaptation Under Climate Change
title_full	Managing Uncertainty in Scots Pine Range-Wide Adaptation Under Climate Change
title_fullStr	Managing Uncertainty in Scots Pine Range-Wide Adaptation Under Climate Change
title_full_unstemmed	Managing Uncertainty in Scots Pine Range-Wide Adaptation Under Climate Change
title_sort	managing uncertainty in scots pine range-wide adaptation under climate change
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/b48dc2185396466e9bc69c12b5180708
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Managing Uncertainty in Scots Pine Range-Wide Adaptation Under Climate Change

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