External Validation of the Prognostic Prediction Model for 4-Year Risk of Metabolic Syndrome in Adults: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Hui Zhang,1 Dandan Chen,1 Jin Shao,1 Ping Zou,2 Nianqi Cui,3 Leiwen Tang,1 Xiyi Wang,4 Dan Wang,1 Zhihong Ye1 1Department of Nursing, Zhejiang University School of Medicine Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; 2School of Nursing, Nipissing University, Toronto, O...

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Autores principales:	Zhang H, Chen D, Shao J, Zou P, Cui N, Tang L, Wang X, Wang D, Ye Z
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Dove Medical Press 2021
Materias:	prediction model prognosis metabolic syndrome algorithms calibration discrimination Specialties of internal medicine RC581-951
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/b60cec0e136d4429ab97658d773cca37
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:b60cec0e136d4429ab97658d773cca372021-12-02T16:13:41ZExternal Validation of the Prognostic Prediction Model for 4-Year Risk of Metabolic Syndrome in Adults: A Retrospective Cohort Study1178-7007https://doaj.org/article/b60cec0e136d4429ab97658d773cca372021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.dovepress.com/external-validation-of-the-prognostic-prediction-model-for-4-year-risk-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-DMSOhttps://doaj.org/toc/1178-7007Hui Zhang,1 Dandan Chen,1 Jin Shao,1 Ping Zou,2 Nianqi Cui,3 Leiwen Tang,1 Xiyi Wang,4 Dan Wang,1 Zhihong Ye1 1Department of Nursing, Zhejiang University School of Medicine Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; 2School of Nursing, Nipissing University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; 3Department of Nursing, The Second Affiliated Hospital Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; 4School of Nursing, Shanghai JiaoTong University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Zhihong YeDepartment of Nursing, Zhejiang University School of Medicine Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Qingchun Dong Road, Jianggan District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of ChinaTel +86 13606612119Email 3192005@zju.edu.cnPurpose: A prediction model for 4-year risk of metabolic syndrome in adults was previously developed and internally validated. However, external validity or generalizability for this model was not assessed so it is not appropriate for clinical application. We aimed to externally validate this model based on a retrospective cohort.Patients and Methods: A retrospective cohort design and a temporal validation strategy were used in this study based on a dataset from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2018. Multiple imputation was used for missing values. Model performance was evaluated by using discrimination, calibration (calibration plot, calibration slope, and calibration intercept), overall performance (Brier score), and decision curve analysis.Results: In external validation, the C-statistic was 0.782 (95% CI, 0.771– 0.793). The calibration plot shows good calibration, calibration slope was 1.006 (95% CI, − 0.011– 1.063), and calibration intercept was − 0.045 (95% CI, − 0.113– 0.022). Brier score was 0.164.The discrimination and calibration of the prediction model were good in temporal external validation.Conclusion: The discrimination and calibration of the prediction model were satisfactory in the temporal external validation. However, clinicians should be aware that this prediction model was developed and validated in a tertiary setting. It is strongly recommended that further studies validate this model in international cohorts and large, prospective cohorts in different institutions.Keywords: prediction model, prognosis, metabolic syndrome, algorithms, calibration, discriminationZhang HChen DShao JZou PCui NTang LWang XWang DYe ZDove Medical Pressarticleprediction modelprognosismetabolic syndromealgorithmscalibrationdiscriminationSpecialties of internal medicineRC581-951ENDiabetes, Metabolic Syndrome and Obesity: Targets and Therapy, Vol Volume 14, Pp 3027-3034 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	prediction model prognosis metabolic syndrome algorithms calibration discrimination Specialties of internal medicine RC581-951
spellingShingle	prediction model prognosis metabolic syndrome algorithms calibration discrimination Specialties of internal medicine RC581-951 Zhang H Chen D Shao J Zou P Cui N Tang L Wang X Wang D Ye Z External Validation of the Prognostic Prediction Model for 4-Year Risk of Metabolic Syndrome in Adults: A Retrospective Cohort Study
description	Hui Zhang,1 Dandan Chen,1 Jin Shao,1 Ping Zou,2 Nianqi Cui,3 Leiwen Tang,1 Xiyi Wang,4 Dan Wang,1 Zhihong Ye1 1Department of Nursing, Zhejiang University School of Medicine Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; 2School of Nursing, Nipissing University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; 3Department of Nursing, The Second Affiliated Hospital Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; 4School of Nursing, Shanghai JiaoTong University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Zhihong YeDepartment of Nursing, Zhejiang University School of Medicine Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Qingchun Dong Road, Jianggan District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of ChinaTel +86 13606612119Email 3192005@zju.edu.cnPurpose: A prediction model for 4-year risk of metabolic syndrome in adults was previously developed and internally validated. However, external validity or generalizability for this model was not assessed so it is not appropriate for clinical application. We aimed to externally validate this model based on a retrospective cohort.Patients and Methods: A retrospective cohort design and a temporal validation strategy were used in this study based on a dataset from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2018. Multiple imputation was used for missing values. Model performance was evaluated by using discrimination, calibration (calibration plot, calibration slope, and calibration intercept), overall performance (Brier score), and decision curve analysis.Results: In external validation, the C-statistic was 0.782 (95% CI, 0.771– 0.793). The calibration plot shows good calibration, calibration slope was 1.006 (95% CI, − 0.011– 1.063), and calibration intercept was − 0.045 (95% CI, − 0.113– 0.022). Brier score was 0.164.The discrimination and calibration of the prediction model were good in temporal external validation.Conclusion: The discrimination and calibration of the prediction model were satisfactory in the temporal external validation. However, clinicians should be aware that this prediction model was developed and validated in a tertiary setting. It is strongly recommended that further studies validate this model in international cohorts and large, prospective cohorts in different institutions.Keywords: prediction model, prognosis, metabolic syndrome, algorithms, calibration, discrimination
format	article
author	Zhang H Chen D Shao J Zou P Cui N Tang L Wang X Wang D Ye Z
author_facet	Zhang H Chen D Shao J Zou P Cui N Tang L Wang X Wang D Ye Z
author_sort	Zhang H
title	External Validation of the Prognostic Prediction Model for 4-Year Risk of Metabolic Syndrome in Adults: A Retrospective Cohort Study
title_short	External Validation of the Prognostic Prediction Model for 4-Year Risk of Metabolic Syndrome in Adults: A Retrospective Cohort Study
title_full	External Validation of the Prognostic Prediction Model for 4-Year Risk of Metabolic Syndrome in Adults: A Retrospective Cohort Study
title_fullStr	External Validation of the Prognostic Prediction Model for 4-Year Risk of Metabolic Syndrome in Adults: A Retrospective Cohort Study
title_full_unstemmed	External Validation of the Prognostic Prediction Model for 4-Year Risk of Metabolic Syndrome in Adults: A Retrospective Cohort Study
title_sort	external validation of the prognostic prediction model for 4-year risk of metabolic syndrome in adults: a retrospective cohort study
publisher	Dove Medical Press
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/b60cec0e136d4429ab97658d773cca37
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External Validation of the Prognostic Prediction Model for 4-Year Risk of Metabolic Syndrome in Adults: A Retrospective Cohort Study

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