Projected impact of sea-level rise and urbanization on mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) habitat along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas through 2100

Coastal wetlands along the Gulf of Mexico support a wide diversity of wildlife, are important nurseries for sport and commercial fisheries, provide erosion and flood control, and serve many other ecological functions and services. These marshes have been declining in area and degrading at alarming r...

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Autores principales:	J.A. Moon, S.E. Lehnen, K.L. Metzger, M.A. Squires, M.G. Brasher, B.C. Wilson, W.C. Conway, D.A. Haukos, B.E. Davis, F.C. Rohwer, E.M. Wehland, B.M. Ballard
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Conservation planning Ensemble modeling Habitat selection Radio telemetry Urbanization Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/b644c22cefb748699145837581286be9
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:b644c22cefb748699145837581286be92021-12-01T05:01:48ZProjected impact of sea-level rise and urbanization on mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) habitat along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas through 21001470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108276https://doaj.org/article/b644c22cefb748699145837581286be92021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21009419https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XCoastal wetlands along the Gulf of Mexico support a wide diversity of wildlife, are important nurseries for sport and commercial fisheries, provide erosion and flood control, and serve many other ecological functions and services. These marshes have been declining in area and degrading at alarming rates since the 1930s. Effective conservation planning is vital to protect these ecosystems, but decision makers often lack knowledge of expected future conditions to strategically target conservation actions. To address this issue, we focus on a species of conservation concern, the mottled duck (Anas fulvigula), that resides year-round in the coastal marshes of the Gulf of Mexico. We used location data collected from radiomarked hen mottled ducks from 2006 to 2011 to create an ensemble model of habitat selection for 2010. We then projected future habitat states using models of sea-level rise and human development. By combining future predictions with our ensemble model, we predict future habitat for mottled ducks through 2100, in 20-year time steps beginning with 2020. Sea-level rise models predicted reductions in coastal marsh habitats and our ensemble model predict corresponding declines in overall habitat quantity and quality for mottled ducks, with the largest rate of habitat loss predicted within the Chenier Plain of Louisiana, USA at 71%. In some areas, particularly the Texas Mid-Coast, USA, future urbanization and human development is expected to reduce the ability of wetland habitat to migrate inland with rising sea-levels. Our results also highlight areas of coastal marsh particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise; and conversely, identify areas most likely to persist into the future that could be targeted for habitat conservation to help mottled ducks persist on the landscape.J.A. MoonS.E. LehnenK.L. MetzgerM.A. SquiresM.G. BrasherB.C. WilsonW.C. ConwayD.A. HaukosB.E. DavisF.C. RohwerE.M. WehlandB.M. BallardElsevierarticleConservation planningEnsemble modelingHabitat selectionRadio telemetryUrbanizationEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 132, Iss , Pp 108276- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Conservation planning Ensemble modeling Habitat selection Radio telemetry Urbanization Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Conservation planning Ensemble modeling Habitat selection Radio telemetry Urbanization Ecology QH540-549.5 J.A. Moon S.E. Lehnen K.L. Metzger M.A. Squires M.G. Brasher B.C. Wilson W.C. Conway D.A. Haukos B.E. Davis F.C. Rohwer E.M. Wehland B.M. Ballard Projected impact of sea-level rise and urbanization on mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) habitat along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas through 2100
description	Coastal wetlands along the Gulf of Mexico support a wide diversity of wildlife, are important nurseries for sport and commercial fisheries, provide erosion and flood control, and serve many other ecological functions and services. These marshes have been declining in area and degrading at alarming rates since the 1930s. Effective conservation planning is vital to protect these ecosystems, but decision makers often lack knowledge of expected future conditions to strategically target conservation actions. To address this issue, we focus on a species of conservation concern, the mottled duck (Anas fulvigula), that resides year-round in the coastal marshes of the Gulf of Mexico. We used location data collected from radiomarked hen mottled ducks from 2006 to 2011 to create an ensemble model of habitat selection for 2010. We then projected future habitat states using models of sea-level rise and human development. By combining future predictions with our ensemble model, we predict future habitat for mottled ducks through 2100, in 20-year time steps beginning with 2020. Sea-level rise models predicted reductions in coastal marsh habitats and our ensemble model predict corresponding declines in overall habitat quantity and quality for mottled ducks, with the largest rate of habitat loss predicted within the Chenier Plain of Louisiana, USA at 71%. In some areas, particularly the Texas Mid-Coast, USA, future urbanization and human development is expected to reduce the ability of wetland habitat to migrate inland with rising sea-levels. Our results also highlight areas of coastal marsh particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise; and conversely, identify areas most likely to persist into the future that could be targeted for habitat conservation to help mottled ducks persist on the landscape.
format	article
author	J.A. Moon S.E. Lehnen K.L. Metzger M.A. Squires M.G. Brasher B.C. Wilson W.C. Conway D.A. Haukos B.E. Davis F.C. Rohwer E.M. Wehland B.M. Ballard
author_facet	J.A. Moon S.E. Lehnen K.L. Metzger M.A. Squires M.G. Brasher B.C. Wilson W.C. Conway D.A. Haukos B.E. Davis F.C. Rohwer E.M. Wehland B.M. Ballard
author_sort	J.A. Moon
title	Projected impact of sea-level rise and urbanization on mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) habitat along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas through 2100
title_short	Projected impact of sea-level rise and urbanization on mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) habitat along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas through 2100
title_full	Projected impact of sea-level rise and urbanization on mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) habitat along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas through 2100
title_fullStr	Projected impact of sea-level rise and urbanization on mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) habitat along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas through 2100
title_full_unstemmed	Projected impact of sea-level rise and urbanization on mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) habitat along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas through 2100
title_sort	projected impact of sea-level rise and urbanization on mottled duck (anas fulvigula) habitat along the gulf coast of louisiana and texas through 2100
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/b644c22cefb748699145837581286be9
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Projected impact of sea-level rise and urbanization on mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) habitat along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas through 2100

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