Long‐term optimal power generation pathways for Pakistan

Abstract Pakistan has faced an electricity shortfall for over two decades despite various efforts taken at different levels. Though electricity supply in recent times has crossed the demand, the supply‐side stresses and deciding optimal power generation pathways have always been a challenge for poli...

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Autores principales:	Sikander Ali Abbasi, Khanji Harijan, Muhammad Waris Ali Khan, Abdullah Mengal, Faheemullah Shaikh, Zubair Ahmed Memon, Nayyar Hussain Mirjat, Laveet Kumar
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Wiley 2021
Materias:	electricity demand forecast electricity supply projections GHG emissions LEAP Pakistan Technology T Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/b669d585a3c94fddb8e1e9be36f0d503
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:b669d585a3c94fddb8e1e9be36f0d5032021-12-02T05:24:30ZLong‐term optimal power generation pathways for Pakistan2050-050510.1002/ese3.981https://doaj.org/article/b669d585a3c94fddb8e1e9be36f0d5032021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1002/ese3.981https://doaj.org/toc/2050-0505Abstract Pakistan has faced an electricity shortfall for over two decades despite various efforts taken at different levels. Though electricity supply in recent times has crossed the demand, the supply‐side stresses and deciding optimal power generation pathways have always been a challenge for policymakers and researchers. In this study using a LEAP energy model, following the sectoral electricity demand forecast, four supply‐side scenarios have been developed and analyzed for the study period 2017‐2055. In each scenario, referred to as Business as Usual (BAU), Renewable Energy Technologies (RET), Coal Power Penetration (CPP), and High‐Efficiency Low‐Emission (HELE) scenario, electricity generation, installed generation capacity, cost of production, and GHG emissions are estimated and compared for seeking long‐term optimal energy pathways for Pakistan. The study results reveal that for the end year (2055), RET is an environmentally sustainable scenario with an estimated electricity generation of 2421 TWh, which is enough to meet the electricity demand of 2374TWh. The GHG emissions under the RET scenario are estimated to be 857 million metric Tons, which are around 50% less than CPP and 40% less than the BAU scenario. However, the cost of generation is higher than BAU and CPP scenarios. The CPP scenario emerges to be cost‐competitive, however with the highest GHG emissions. This study thus suggests that convergence of RET with the CPP scenario could be an appealing option for Pakistan to meet increasing demand with energy security and environmental sustainability.Sikander Ali AbbasiKhanji HarijanMuhammad Waris Ali KhanAbdullah MengalFaheemullah ShaikhZubair Ahmed MemonNayyar Hussain MirjatLaveet KumarWileyarticleelectricity demand forecastelectricity supply projectionsGHG emissionsLEAPPakistanTechnologyTScienceQENEnergy Science & Engineering, Vol 9, Iss 12, Pp 2252-2267 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	electricity demand forecast electricity supply projections GHG emissions LEAP Pakistan Technology T Science Q
spellingShingle	electricity demand forecast electricity supply projections GHG emissions LEAP Pakistan Technology T Science Q Sikander Ali Abbasi Khanji Harijan Muhammad Waris Ali Khan Abdullah Mengal Faheemullah Shaikh Zubair Ahmed Memon Nayyar Hussain Mirjat Laveet Kumar Long‐term optimal power generation pathways for Pakistan
description	Abstract Pakistan has faced an electricity shortfall for over two decades despite various efforts taken at different levels. Though electricity supply in recent times has crossed the demand, the supply‐side stresses and deciding optimal power generation pathways have always been a challenge for policymakers and researchers. In this study using a LEAP energy model, following the sectoral electricity demand forecast, four supply‐side scenarios have been developed and analyzed for the study period 2017‐2055. In each scenario, referred to as Business as Usual (BAU), Renewable Energy Technologies (RET), Coal Power Penetration (CPP), and High‐Efficiency Low‐Emission (HELE) scenario, electricity generation, installed generation capacity, cost of production, and GHG emissions are estimated and compared for seeking long‐term optimal energy pathways for Pakistan. The study results reveal that for the end year (2055), RET is an environmentally sustainable scenario with an estimated electricity generation of 2421 TWh, which is enough to meet the electricity demand of 2374TWh. The GHG emissions under the RET scenario are estimated to be 857 million metric Tons, which are around 50% less than CPP and 40% less than the BAU scenario. However, the cost of generation is higher than BAU and CPP scenarios. The CPP scenario emerges to be cost‐competitive, however with the highest GHG emissions. This study thus suggests that convergence of RET with the CPP scenario could be an appealing option for Pakistan to meet increasing demand with energy security and environmental sustainability.
format	article
author	Sikander Ali Abbasi Khanji Harijan Muhammad Waris Ali Khan Abdullah Mengal Faheemullah Shaikh Zubair Ahmed Memon Nayyar Hussain Mirjat Laveet Kumar
author_facet	Sikander Ali Abbasi Khanji Harijan Muhammad Waris Ali Khan Abdullah Mengal Faheemullah Shaikh Zubair Ahmed Memon Nayyar Hussain Mirjat Laveet Kumar
author_sort	Sikander Ali Abbasi
title	Long‐term optimal power generation pathways for Pakistan
title_short	Long‐term optimal power generation pathways for Pakistan
title_full	Long‐term optimal power generation pathways for Pakistan
title_fullStr	Long‐term optimal power generation pathways for Pakistan
title_full_unstemmed	Long‐term optimal power generation pathways for Pakistan
title_sort	long‐term optimal power generation pathways for pakistan
publisher	Wiley
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/b669d585a3c94fddb8e1e9be36f0d503
work_keys_str_mv	AT sikanderaliabbasi longtermoptimalpowergenerationpathwaysforpakistan AT khanjiharijan longtermoptimalpowergenerationpathwaysforpakistan AT muhammadwarisalikhan longtermoptimalpowergenerationpathwaysforpakistan AT abdullahmengal longtermoptimalpowergenerationpathwaysforpakistan AT faheemullahshaikh longtermoptimalpowergenerationpathwaysforpakistan AT zubairahmedmemon longtermoptimalpowergenerationpathwaysforpakistan AT nayyarhussainmirjat longtermoptimalpowergenerationpathwaysforpakistan AT laveetkumar longtermoptimalpowergenerationpathwaysforpakistan
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Long‐term optimal power generation pathways for Pakistan

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