Covid-19 and Unemployment: Evidence from Puerto Rico Using Bayesian Analyses with High-Frequency Data

The paper aims at determining the relationship between the Covid-19 contagion level and the state of the economy using high-frequency data from Puerto Rico. In order to achieve the aim set, the direction of the causality relationship between the numbers of infected persons and the unemployment rate...

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Autor principal: Toledo Wilfredo
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Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: Sciendo 2021
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Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/b686d4b588e5475a8b71841c3cb9b6f8
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:b686d4b588e5475a8b71841c3cb9b6f82021-12-05T14:11:07ZCovid-19 and Unemployment: Evidence from Puerto Rico Using Bayesian Analyses with High-Frequency Data2256-039410.2478/eb-2021-0012https://doaj.org/article/b686d4b588e5475a8b71841c3cb9b6f82021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.2478/eb-2021-0012https://doaj.org/toc/2256-0394The paper aims at determining the relationship between the Covid-19 contagion level and the state of the economy using high-frequency data from Puerto Rico. In order to achieve the aim set, the direction of the causality relationship between the numbers of infected persons and the unemployment rate was determined. Furthermore, various Bayesian statistical models were estimated. The analysis results imply that the unemployment rate responds moderately to the Covid-19 contagion level itself and not the other way around. The 95 % credible interval for the elasticity coefficient of the unemployment rate relative to the virus is estimated as [0.0140–0.1448]. Evidence also shows that at the beginning of 2021, most of the fluctuations in the unemployment rate were explained directly by the Covid-19 perturbations. Hence, no evidence was found that economic activity promoted the virus spread in the analysed economy.Toledo WilfredoSciendoarticlebayesian estimationcovid-19economic activitymidas estimationpuerto ricoc11c22e24i12BusinessHF5001-6182Economics as a scienceHB71-74ENEconomics and Business, Vol 35, Iss 1, Pp 174-189 (2021)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic bayesian estimation
covid-19
economic activity
midas estimation
puerto rico
c11
c22
e24
i12
Business
HF5001-6182
Economics as a science
HB71-74
spellingShingle bayesian estimation
covid-19
economic activity
midas estimation
puerto rico
c11
c22
e24
i12
Business
HF5001-6182
Economics as a science
HB71-74
Toledo Wilfredo
Covid-19 and Unemployment: Evidence from Puerto Rico Using Bayesian Analyses with High-Frequency Data
description The paper aims at determining the relationship between the Covid-19 contagion level and the state of the economy using high-frequency data from Puerto Rico. In order to achieve the aim set, the direction of the causality relationship between the numbers of infected persons and the unemployment rate was determined. Furthermore, various Bayesian statistical models were estimated. The analysis results imply that the unemployment rate responds moderately to the Covid-19 contagion level itself and not the other way around. The 95 % credible interval for the elasticity coefficient of the unemployment rate relative to the virus is estimated as [0.0140–0.1448]. Evidence also shows that at the beginning of 2021, most of the fluctuations in the unemployment rate were explained directly by the Covid-19 perturbations. Hence, no evidence was found that economic activity promoted the virus spread in the analysed economy.
format article
author Toledo Wilfredo
author_facet Toledo Wilfredo
author_sort Toledo Wilfredo
title Covid-19 and Unemployment: Evidence from Puerto Rico Using Bayesian Analyses with High-Frequency Data
title_short Covid-19 and Unemployment: Evidence from Puerto Rico Using Bayesian Analyses with High-Frequency Data
title_full Covid-19 and Unemployment: Evidence from Puerto Rico Using Bayesian Analyses with High-Frequency Data
title_fullStr Covid-19 and Unemployment: Evidence from Puerto Rico Using Bayesian Analyses with High-Frequency Data
title_full_unstemmed Covid-19 and Unemployment: Evidence from Puerto Rico Using Bayesian Analyses with High-Frequency Data
title_sort covid-19 and unemployment: evidence from puerto rico using bayesian analyses with high-frequency data
publisher Sciendo
publishDate 2021
url https://doaj.org/article/b686d4b588e5475a8b71841c3cb9b6f8
work_keys_str_mv AT toledowilfredo covid19andunemploymentevidencefrompuertoricousingbayesiananalyseswithhighfrequencydata
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