Inference of type-specific HPV transmissibility, progression and clearance rates: a mathematical modelling approach.

Quantifying rates governing the clearance of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) and its progression to clinical disease, together with viral transmissibility and the duration of naturally-acquired immunity, is essential in estimating the impact of vaccination programmes and screening or testing regimes. How...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Helen C Johnson, K Miriam Elfström, W John Edmunds
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/b6a45e5af0714cc89d37f163b313f8c6
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:b6a45e5af0714cc89d37f163b313f8c6
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:b6a45e5af0714cc89d37f163b313f8c62021-11-18T08:07:57ZInference of type-specific HPV transmissibility, progression and clearance rates: a mathematical modelling approach.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0049614https://doaj.org/article/b6a45e5af0714cc89d37f163b313f8c62012-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23185383/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Quantifying rates governing the clearance of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) and its progression to clinical disease, together with viral transmissibility and the duration of naturally-acquired immunity, is essential in estimating the impact of vaccination programmes and screening or testing regimes. However, the complex natural history of HPV makes this difficult. We infer the viral transmissibility, rate of waning natural immunity and rates of progression and clearance of infection of 13 high-risk and 2 non-oncogenic HPV types, making use of a number of rich datasets from Sweden. Estimates of viral transmissibility, clearance of initial infection and waning immunity were derived in a Bayesian framework by fitting a susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) transmission model to age- and type-specific HPV prevalence data from both a cross-sectional study and a randomised controlled trial (RCT) of primary HPV screening. The models fitted well, but over-estimated the prevalence of four high-risk types with respect to the data. Three of these types (HPV-33, -35 and -58) are among the most closely related phylogenetically to the most prevalent HPV-16. The fourth (HPV-45) is the most closely related to HPV-18; the second most prevalent type. We suggest that this may be an indicator of cross-immunity. Rates of progression and clearance of clinical lesions were additionally estimated from longitudinal data gathered as part of the same RCT. Our estimates of progression and clearance rates are consistent with the findings of survival analysis studies and we extend the literature by estimating progression and clearance rates for non-16 and non-18 high-risk types. We anticipate that such type-specific estimates will be useful in the parameterisation of further models and in developing our understanding of HPV natural history.Helen C JohnsonK Miriam ElfströmW John EdmundsPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 7, Iss 11, p e49614 (2012)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Helen C Johnson K Miriam Elfström W John Edmunds Inference of type-specific HPV transmissibility, progression and clearance rates: a mathematical modelling approach.
description	Quantifying rates governing the clearance of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) and its progression to clinical disease, together with viral transmissibility and the duration of naturally-acquired immunity, is essential in estimating the impact of vaccination programmes and screening or testing regimes. However, the complex natural history of HPV makes this difficult. We infer the viral transmissibility, rate of waning natural immunity and rates of progression and clearance of infection of 13 high-risk and 2 non-oncogenic HPV types, making use of a number of rich datasets from Sweden. Estimates of viral transmissibility, clearance of initial infection and waning immunity were derived in a Bayesian framework by fitting a susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) transmission model to age- and type-specific HPV prevalence data from both a cross-sectional study and a randomised controlled trial (RCT) of primary HPV screening. The models fitted well, but over-estimated the prevalence of four high-risk types with respect to the data. Three of these types (HPV-33, -35 and -58) are among the most closely related phylogenetically to the most prevalent HPV-16. The fourth (HPV-45) is the most closely related to HPV-18; the second most prevalent type. We suggest that this may be an indicator of cross-immunity. Rates of progression and clearance of clinical lesions were additionally estimated from longitudinal data gathered as part of the same RCT. Our estimates of progression and clearance rates are consistent with the findings of survival analysis studies and we extend the literature by estimating progression and clearance rates for non-16 and non-18 high-risk types. We anticipate that such type-specific estimates will be useful in the parameterisation of further models and in developing our understanding of HPV natural history.
format	article
author	Helen C Johnson K Miriam Elfström W John Edmunds
author_facet	Helen C Johnson K Miriam Elfström W John Edmunds
author_sort	Helen C Johnson
title	Inference of type-specific HPV transmissibility, progression and clearance rates: a mathematical modelling approach.
title_short	Inference of type-specific HPV transmissibility, progression and clearance rates: a mathematical modelling approach.
title_full	Inference of type-specific HPV transmissibility, progression and clearance rates: a mathematical modelling approach.
title_fullStr	Inference of type-specific HPV transmissibility, progression and clearance rates: a mathematical modelling approach.
title_full_unstemmed	Inference of type-specific HPV transmissibility, progression and clearance rates: a mathematical modelling approach.
title_sort	inference of type-specific hpv transmissibility, progression and clearance rates: a mathematical modelling approach.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2012
url	https://doaj.org/article/b6a45e5af0714cc89d37f163b313f8c6
work_keys_str_mv	AT helencjohnson inferenceoftypespecifichpvtransmissibilityprogressionandclearanceratesamathematicalmodellingapproach AT kmiriamelfstrom inferenceoftypespecifichpvtransmissibilityprogressionandclearanceratesamathematicalmodellingapproach AT wjohnedmunds inferenceoftypespecifichpvtransmissibilityprogressionandclearanceratesamathematicalmodellingapproach
_version_	1718422189217153024

Inference of type-specific HPV transmissibility, progression and clearance rates: a mathematical modelling approach.

Ejemplares similares