Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy
The identification of COVID-19 waves is a matter of the utmost importance, both for research and decision making. This study uses COVID-19 information from the 52 municipalities of the Metropolitan Region, Chile, and presents a quantitative method—based on weekly accumulated incidence rates—to defin...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | article |
| Language: | EN |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doaj.org/article/b6f90bfb4a3541f58a4bfe22182ccc1e |
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| Summary: | The identification of COVID-19 waves is a matter of the utmost importance, both for research and decision making. This study uses COVID-19 information from the 52 municipalities of the Metropolitan Region, Chile, and presents a quantitative method—based on weekly accumulated incidence rates—to define COVID-19 waves. We explore three different criteria to define the duration of a wave, and performed a sensitivity analysis using multivariate linear models to show their commonalities and differences. The results show that, compared to a benchmark definition (a 100-day wave), the estimations using longer periods of study are worse in terms of the model’s overall fit (adjusted R<sup>2</sup>). The article shows that defining a COVID-19 wave is not necessarily simple, and has consequences when performing data analysis. The results highlight the need to adopt well-defined and well-justified definitions for COVID-19 waves, since these methodological choices can have an impact in research and policy making. |
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