Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy
The identification of COVID-19 waves is a matter of the utmost importance, both for research and decision making. This study uses COVID-19 information from the 52 municipalities of the Metropolitan Region, Chile, and presents a quantitative method—based on weekly accumulated incidence rates—to defin...
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MDPI AG
2021
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oai:doaj.org-article:b6f90bfb4a3541f58a4bfe22182ccc1e2021-11-11T16:12:29ZIdentification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy10.3390/ijerph1821110581660-46011661-7827https://doaj.org/article/b6f90bfb4a3541f58a4bfe22182ccc1e2021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/21/11058https://doaj.org/toc/1661-7827https://doaj.org/toc/1660-4601The identification of COVID-19 waves is a matter of the utmost importance, both for research and decision making. This study uses COVID-19 information from the 52 municipalities of the Metropolitan Region, Chile, and presents a quantitative method—based on weekly accumulated incidence rates—to define COVID-19 waves. We explore three different criteria to define the duration of a wave, and performed a sensitivity analysis using multivariate linear models to show their commonalities and differences. The results show that, compared to a benchmark definition (a 100-day wave), the estimations using longer periods of study are worse in terms of the model’s overall fit (adjusted R<sup>2</sup>). The article shows that defining a COVID-19 wave is not necessarily simple, and has consequences when performing data analysis. The results highlight the need to adopt well-defined and well-justified definitions for COVID-19 waves, since these methodological choices can have an impact in research and policy making.Andrés AyalaPablo Villalobos DintransFelipe ElorrietaClaudio CastilloClaudio VargasMatilde MaddalenoMDPI AGarticleCOVID-19wavespublic healthpublic policyMedicineRENInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 18, Iss 11058, p 11058 (2021) |
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DOAJ |
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EN |
topic |
COVID-19 waves public health public policy Medicine R |
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COVID-19 waves public health public policy Medicine R Andrés Ayala Pablo Villalobos Dintrans Felipe Elorrieta Claudio Castillo Claudio Vargas Matilde Maddaleno Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy |
description |
The identification of COVID-19 waves is a matter of the utmost importance, both for research and decision making. This study uses COVID-19 information from the 52 municipalities of the Metropolitan Region, Chile, and presents a quantitative method—based on weekly accumulated incidence rates—to define COVID-19 waves. We explore three different criteria to define the duration of a wave, and performed a sensitivity analysis using multivariate linear models to show their commonalities and differences. The results show that, compared to a benchmark definition (a 100-day wave), the estimations using longer periods of study are worse in terms of the model’s overall fit (adjusted R<sup>2</sup>). The article shows that defining a COVID-19 wave is not necessarily simple, and has consequences when performing data analysis. The results highlight the need to adopt well-defined and well-justified definitions for COVID-19 waves, since these methodological choices can have an impact in research and policy making. |
format |
article |
author |
Andrés Ayala Pablo Villalobos Dintrans Felipe Elorrieta Claudio Castillo Claudio Vargas Matilde Maddaleno |
author_facet |
Andrés Ayala Pablo Villalobos Dintrans Felipe Elorrieta Claudio Castillo Claudio Vargas Matilde Maddaleno |
author_sort |
Andrés Ayala |
title |
Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy |
title_short |
Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy |
title_full |
Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy |
title_fullStr |
Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy |
title_full_unstemmed |
Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy |
title_sort |
identification of covid-19 waves: considerations for research and policy |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doaj.org/article/b6f90bfb4a3541f58a4bfe22182ccc1e |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT andresayala identificationofcovid19wavesconsiderationsforresearchandpolicy AT pablovillalobosdintrans identificationofcovid19wavesconsiderationsforresearchandpolicy AT felipeelorrieta identificationofcovid19wavesconsiderationsforresearchandpolicy AT claudiocastillo identificationofcovid19wavesconsiderationsforresearchandpolicy AT claudiovargas identificationofcovid19wavesconsiderationsforresearchandpolicy AT matildemaddaleno identificationofcovid19wavesconsiderationsforresearchandpolicy |
_version_ |
1718432378400014336 |