Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy

Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy

The identification of COVID-19 waves is a matter of the utmost importance, both for research and decision making. This study uses COVID-19 information from the 52 municipalities of the Metropolitan Region, Chile, and presents a quantitative method—based on weekly accumulated incidence rates—to defin...

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Main Authors: Andrés Ayala, Pablo Villalobos Dintrans, Felipe Elorrieta, Claudio Castillo, Claudio Vargas, Matilde Maddaleno
Format: article
Language:EN
Published: MDPI AG 2021
Subjects:
COVID-19
waves
public health
public policy
Medicine
R
Online Access:https://doaj.org/article/b6f90bfb4a3541f58a4bfe22182ccc1e
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:b6f90bfb4a3541f58a4bfe22182ccc1e2021-11-11T16:12:29ZIdentification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy10.3390/ijerph1821110581660-46011661-7827https://doaj.org/article/b6f90bfb4a3541f58a4bfe22182ccc1e2021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/21/11058https://doaj.org/toc/1661-7827https://doaj.org/toc/1660-4601The identification of COVID-19 waves is a matter of the utmost importance, both for research and decision making. This study uses COVID-19 information from the 52 municipalities of the Metropolitan Region, Chile, and presents a quantitative method—based on weekly accumulated incidence rates—to define COVID-19 waves. We explore three different criteria to define the duration of a wave, and performed a sensitivity analysis using multivariate linear models to show their commonalities and differences. The results show that, compared to a benchmark definition (a 100-day wave), the estimations using longer periods of study are worse in terms of the model’s overall fit (adjusted R<sup>2</sup>). The article shows that defining a COVID-19 wave is not necessarily simple, and has consequences when performing data analysis. The results highlight the need to adopt well-defined and well-justified definitions for COVID-19 waves, since these methodological choices can have an impact in research and policy making.Andrés AyalaPablo Villalobos DintransFelipe ElorrietaClaudio CastilloClaudio VargasMatilde MaddalenoMDPI AGarticleCOVID-19wavespublic healthpublic policyMedicineRENInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 18, Iss 11058, p 11058 (2021)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic COVID-19
waves
public health
public policy
Medicine
R
spellingShingle COVID-19
waves
public health
public policy
Medicine
R
Andrés Ayala
Pablo Villalobos Dintrans
Felipe Elorrieta
Claudio Castillo
Claudio Vargas
Matilde Maddaleno
Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy
description The identification of COVID-19 waves is a matter of the utmost importance, both for research and decision making. This study uses COVID-19 information from the 52 municipalities of the Metropolitan Region, Chile, and presents a quantitative method—based on weekly accumulated incidence rates—to define COVID-19 waves. We explore three different criteria to define the duration of a wave, and performed a sensitivity analysis using multivariate linear models to show their commonalities and differences. The results show that, compared to a benchmark definition (a 100-day wave), the estimations using longer periods of study are worse in terms of the model’s overall fit (adjusted R<sup>2</sup>). The article shows that defining a COVID-19 wave is not necessarily simple, and has consequences when performing data analysis. The results highlight the need to adopt well-defined and well-justified definitions for COVID-19 waves, since these methodological choices can have an impact in research and policy making.
format article
author Andrés Ayala
Pablo Villalobos Dintrans
Felipe Elorrieta
Claudio Castillo
Claudio Vargas
Matilde Maddaleno
author_facet Andrés Ayala
Pablo Villalobos Dintrans
Felipe Elorrieta
Claudio Castillo
Claudio Vargas
Matilde Maddaleno
author_sort Andrés Ayala
title Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy
title_short Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy
title_full Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy
title_fullStr Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy
title_full_unstemmed Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy
title_sort identification of covid-19 waves: considerations for research and policy
publisher MDPI AG
publishDate 2021
url https://doaj.org/article/b6f90bfb4a3541f58a4bfe22182ccc1e
work_keys_str_mv AT andresayala identificationofcovid19wavesconsiderationsforresearchandpolicy
AT pablovillalobosdintrans identificationofcovid19wavesconsiderationsforresearchandpolicy
AT felipeelorrieta identificationofcovid19wavesconsiderationsforresearchandpolicy
AT claudiocastillo identificationofcovid19wavesconsiderationsforresearchandpolicy
AT claudiovargas identificationofcovid19wavesconsiderationsforresearchandpolicy
AT matildemaddaleno identificationofcovid19wavesconsiderationsforresearchandpolicy
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