Scenario Modeling in Health System Management Perm Region (Part 2)

In continuation of the article, the authors of the study devoted to the problems of scenario modeling and solving specific problems of management and development of the health care system of the Perm Territory, built the author’s dynamic multivariate model, which was based on an authoritative approa...

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Autores principales:	A. N. Tsatsulin, B. A. Tsatsulin
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN RU
Publicado:	North-West institute of management of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration 2021
Materias:	management decision forecast plan scenario risk threat probability national economy health care system forthcoming (expected) life expectancy econometric model statistical estimation random component Political institutions and public administration (General) JF20-2112
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/b91ba18a01f24906b724f23b22979dc5
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:b91ba18a01f24906b724f23b22979dc52021-11-12T10:46:14ZScenario Modeling in Health System Management Perm Region (Part 2)1726-11391816-859010.22394/1726-1139-2021-3-98-109https://doaj.org/article/b91ba18a01f24906b724f23b22979dc52021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.acjournal.ru/jour/article/view/1668https://doaj.org/toc/1726-1139https://doaj.org/toc/1816-8590In continuation of the article, the authors of the study devoted to the problems of scenario modeling and solving specific problems of management and development of the health care system of the Perm Territory, built the author’s dynamic multivariate model, which was based on an authoritative approach and consists of a set of five structural simultaneous equations. As a result, each equation of the system is a linear form of recursive regression, where the independent variable as a factor-factor taken into account in one equation becomes a depend- ent variable as an effective factor-factor. In order to eliminate the phenomenon of autocor- relation of residual values, the method of time lagging was used. To estimate the parameters of the reduced form of structural simultaneous equations, the two-step least squares method was used as a special case of the maximum likelihood method. The obtained parameter esti- mates on the whole turned out to be effective with moderate consistency and satisfactory bias. The constructed model made it possible to carry out a short-term forecast of the most important target socio-economic indicator of the success of healthcare development in the region until 2023. The authors considered the national goal as such a priority indicator — the expected (future) life expectancy of the population of the study area. At the end of the article, conclusions were drawn and the prospects for further scientific research of the authors were outlined.A. N. TsatsulinB. A. TsatsulinNorth-West institute of management of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration articlemanagement decisionforecastplanscenarioriskthreatprobabilitynational economyhealth care systemforthcoming (expected) life expectancyeconometric modelstatistical estimationrandom componentPolitical institutions and public administration (General)JF20-2112ENRUУправленческое консультирование, Vol 0, Iss 3, Pp 98-109 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN RU
topic	management decision forecast plan scenario risk threat probability national economy health care system forthcoming (expected) life expectancy econometric model statistical estimation random component Political institutions and public administration (General) JF20-2112
spellingShingle	management decision forecast plan scenario risk threat probability national economy health care system forthcoming (expected) life expectancy econometric model statistical estimation random component Political institutions and public administration (General) JF20-2112 A. N. Tsatsulin B. A. Tsatsulin Scenario Modeling in Health System Management Perm Region (Part 2)
description	In continuation of the article, the authors of the study devoted to the problems of scenario modeling and solving specific problems of management and development of the health care system of the Perm Territory, built the author’s dynamic multivariate model, which was based on an authoritative approach and consists of a set of five structural simultaneous equations. As a result, each equation of the system is a linear form of recursive regression, where the independent variable as a factor-factor taken into account in one equation becomes a depend- ent variable as an effective factor-factor. In order to eliminate the phenomenon of autocor- relation of residual values, the method of time lagging was used. To estimate the parameters of the reduced form of structural simultaneous equations, the two-step least squares method was used as a special case of the maximum likelihood method. The obtained parameter esti- mates on the whole turned out to be effective with moderate consistency and satisfactory bias. The constructed model made it possible to carry out a short-term forecast of the most important target socio-economic indicator of the success of healthcare development in the region until 2023. The authors considered the national goal as such a priority indicator — the expected (future) life expectancy of the population of the study area. At the end of the article, conclusions were drawn and the prospects for further scientific research of the authors were outlined.
format	article
author	A. N. Tsatsulin B. A. Tsatsulin
author_facet	A. N. Tsatsulin B. A. Tsatsulin
author_sort	A. N. Tsatsulin
title	Scenario Modeling in Health System Management Perm Region (Part 2)
title_short	Scenario Modeling in Health System Management Perm Region (Part 2)
title_full	Scenario Modeling in Health System Management Perm Region (Part 2)
title_fullStr	Scenario Modeling in Health System Management Perm Region (Part 2)
title_full_unstemmed	Scenario Modeling in Health System Management Perm Region (Part 2)
title_sort	scenario modeling in health system management perm region (part 2)
publisher	North-West institute of management of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/b91ba18a01f24906b724f23b22979dc5
work_keys_str_mv	AT antsatsulin scenariomodelinginhealthsystemmanagementpermregionpart2 AT batsatsulin scenariomodelinginhealthsystemmanagementpermregionpart2
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Scenario Modeling in Health System Management Perm Region (Part 2)

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