Water resources of the Desna river basin under future climate

Climate change impact on water resources has been observed in Ukraine since the end of the 20th century. For now, only large-scale climate impact studies cover Ukraine's territory, having low credibility for a specific catchment. This study aims to calculate future changes in river discharge, w...

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Autores principales:	Valeriy Osypov, Oleh Speka, Anastasiia Chyhareva, Nataliia Osadcha, Svitlana Krakovska, Volodymyr Osadchyi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	climate change desna river basin euro-cordex soil water swat model water flow Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/b95dc63a94aa41e9ad02bb786e087f48
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:b95dc63a94aa41e9ad02bb786e087f48
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:b95dc63a94aa41e9ad02bb786e087f482021-11-10T00:00:02ZWater resources of the Desna river basin under future climate2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2021.034https://doaj.org/article/b95dc63a94aa41e9ad02bb786e087f482021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/7/3355https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354Climate change impact on water resources has been observed in Ukraine since the end of the 20th century. For now, only large-scale climate impact studies cover Ukraine's territory, having low credibility for a specific catchment. This study aims to calculate future changes in river discharge, water flow components, and soil water within the Desna basin and evaluate vulnerability trends on this basis. The framework assembles the process-based SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and eight high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The climate models are provided by the Euro-CORDEX initiative and based on three RCMs (RCA4, HIRHAM5, and RACMO22E) forced by five general circulation models (CNRM-CM5, EC-EARTH, IPSL-CM5A-MR, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-LR). The results preferably show a moderate increase in the annual discharge until the end of the 21st century. The intra-annual changes of water balance components negatively affect the vegetation period because of higher dryness and temperature stress but reduce flood risk, diffuse pollution, and water erosion in the far future. In the river basin management plan, the highest attention should be paid to adaptive strategies in agriculture because of possible water deficit in the vegetation season under future climate scenarios. HIGHLIGHTS The Desna river annual runoff as well as evapotranspiration will increase under an expected warmer and wetter climate.; Winter warming will reduce flood risk and increase groundwater flow during the year.; Soil water will significantly decrease in the vegetation period toward the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 or RCP8.5.;Valeriy OsypovOleh SpekaAnastasiia ChyharevaNataliia OsadchaSvitlana KrakovskaVolodymyr OsadchyiIWA Publishingarticleclimate changedesna river basineuro-cordexsoil waterswat modelwater flowEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 7, Pp 3355-3372 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate change desna river basin euro-cordex soil water swat model water flow Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	climate change desna river basin euro-cordex soil water swat model water flow Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Valeriy Osypov Oleh Speka Anastasiia Chyhareva Nataliia Osadcha Svitlana Krakovska Volodymyr Osadchyi Water resources of the Desna river basin under future climate
description	Climate change impact on water resources has been observed in Ukraine since the end of the 20th century. For now, only large-scale climate impact studies cover Ukraine's territory, having low credibility for a specific catchment. This study aims to calculate future changes in river discharge, water flow components, and soil water within the Desna basin and evaluate vulnerability trends on this basis. The framework assembles the process-based SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and eight high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The climate models are provided by the Euro-CORDEX initiative and based on three RCMs (RCA4, HIRHAM5, and RACMO22E) forced by five general circulation models (CNRM-CM5, EC-EARTH, IPSL-CM5A-MR, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-LR). The results preferably show a moderate increase in the annual discharge until the end of the 21st century. The intra-annual changes of water balance components negatively affect the vegetation period because of higher dryness and temperature stress but reduce flood risk, diffuse pollution, and water erosion in the far future. In the river basin management plan, the highest attention should be paid to adaptive strategies in agriculture because of possible water deficit in the vegetation season under future climate scenarios. HIGHLIGHTS The Desna river annual runoff as well as evapotranspiration will increase under an expected warmer and wetter climate.; Winter warming will reduce flood risk and increase groundwater flow during the year.; Soil water will significantly decrease in the vegetation period toward the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 or RCP8.5.;
format	article
author	Valeriy Osypov Oleh Speka Anastasiia Chyhareva Nataliia Osadcha Svitlana Krakovska Volodymyr Osadchyi
author_facet	Valeriy Osypov Oleh Speka Anastasiia Chyhareva Nataliia Osadcha Svitlana Krakovska Volodymyr Osadchyi
author_sort	Valeriy Osypov
title	Water resources of the Desna river basin under future climate
title_short	Water resources of the Desna river basin under future climate
title_full	Water resources of the Desna river basin under future climate
title_fullStr	Water resources of the Desna river basin under future climate
title_full_unstemmed	Water resources of the Desna river basin under future climate
title_sort	water resources of the desna river basin under future climate
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/b95dc63a94aa41e9ad02bb786e087f48
work_keys_str_mv	AT valeriyosypov waterresourcesofthedesnariverbasinunderfutureclimate AT olehspeka waterresourcesofthedesnariverbasinunderfutureclimate AT anastasiiachyhareva waterresourcesofthedesnariverbasinunderfutureclimate AT nataliiaosadcha waterresourcesofthedesnariverbasinunderfutureclimate AT svitlanakrakovska waterresourcesofthedesnariverbasinunderfutureclimate AT volodymyrosadchyi waterresourcesofthedesnariverbasinunderfutureclimate
_version_	1718440779762892800

Water resources of the Desna river basin under future climate

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