Cross-country evidence on the association between contact tracing and COVID-19 case fatality rates

Abstract The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has killed over a million people since its emergence in late 2019. However, there has been substantial variability in the policies and intensity of diagnostic efforts between countries. In this paper, we quantitatively evaluate the association bet...

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Autores principales:	Abdullah Yalaman, Gokce Basbug, Ceyhun Elgin, Alison P. Galvani
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ba14c28cce0d47d18935a93da01de845
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ba14c28cce0d47d18935a93da01de8452021-12-02T13:27:32ZCross-country evidence on the association between contact tracing and COVID-19 case fatality rates10.1038/s41598-020-78760-x2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/ba14c28cce0d47d18935a93da01de8452021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-78760-xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has killed over a million people since its emergence in late 2019. However, there has been substantial variability in the policies and intensity of diagnostic efforts between countries. In this paper, we quantitatively evaluate the association between national contact tracing policies and case fatality rates of COVID-19 in 138 countries. Our regression analyses indicate that countries that implement comprehensive contact tracing have significantly lower case fatality rates. This association of contact tracing policy and case fatality rates is robust in our longitudinal regression models, even after controlling for the number of tests conducted and non-pharmaceutical control measures adopted by governments. Our results suggest that comprehensive contact tracing is instrumental not only to curtailing transmission but also to reducing case fatality rates. Contact tracing achieves the early detection and isolation of secondary cases which are particularly important given that the peak in infectiousness occurs during the presymptomatic phase. The early detection achieved by contact tracing accelerates the rate at which infected individuals receive medical care they need to maximize their chance of recovery. In addition, the combination of reduced transmission and more rapid recovery diminishes the burden on the healthcare system which in turn ensures that the resources remain available for individuals who do become infected.Abdullah YalamanGokce BasbugCeyhun ElginAlison P. GalvaniNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-6 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Abdullah Yalaman Gokce Basbug Ceyhun Elgin Alison P. Galvani Cross-country evidence on the association between contact tracing and COVID-19 case fatality rates
description	Abstract The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has killed over a million people since its emergence in late 2019. However, there has been substantial variability in the policies and intensity of diagnostic efforts between countries. In this paper, we quantitatively evaluate the association between national contact tracing policies and case fatality rates of COVID-19 in 138 countries. Our regression analyses indicate that countries that implement comprehensive contact tracing have significantly lower case fatality rates. This association of contact tracing policy and case fatality rates is robust in our longitudinal regression models, even after controlling for the number of tests conducted and non-pharmaceutical control measures adopted by governments. Our results suggest that comprehensive contact tracing is instrumental not only to curtailing transmission but also to reducing case fatality rates. Contact tracing achieves the early detection and isolation of secondary cases which are particularly important given that the peak in infectiousness occurs during the presymptomatic phase. The early detection achieved by contact tracing accelerates the rate at which infected individuals receive medical care they need to maximize their chance of recovery. In addition, the combination of reduced transmission and more rapid recovery diminishes the burden on the healthcare system which in turn ensures that the resources remain available for individuals who do become infected.
format	article
author	Abdullah Yalaman Gokce Basbug Ceyhun Elgin Alison P. Galvani
author_facet	Abdullah Yalaman Gokce Basbug Ceyhun Elgin Alison P. Galvani
author_sort	Abdullah Yalaman
title	Cross-country evidence on the association between contact tracing and COVID-19 case fatality rates
title_short	Cross-country evidence on the association between contact tracing and COVID-19 case fatality rates
title_full	Cross-country evidence on the association between contact tracing and COVID-19 case fatality rates
title_fullStr	Cross-country evidence on the association between contact tracing and COVID-19 case fatality rates
title_full_unstemmed	Cross-country evidence on the association between contact tracing and COVID-19 case fatality rates
title_sort	cross-country evidence on the association between contact tracing and covid-19 case fatality rates
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ba14c28cce0d47d18935a93da01de845
work_keys_str_mv	AT abdullahyalaman crosscountryevidenceontheassociationbetweencontacttracingandcovid19casefatalityrates AT gokcebasbug crosscountryevidenceontheassociationbetweencontacttracingandcovid19casefatalityrates AT ceyhunelgin crosscountryevidenceontheassociationbetweencontacttracingandcovid19casefatalityrates AT alisonpgalvani crosscountryevidenceontheassociationbetweencontacttracingandcovid19casefatalityrates
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Cross-country evidence on the association between contact tracing and COVID-19 case fatality rates

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