Regresi Nonparametrik dengan Pendekatan Deret Fourier pada Data Debit Air Sungai Citarum

River discharge is one of the factors that affect the occurrence of floods. It varies over time and hence we need to predict the flood risk. Since the plot of the data changes periodically showing a sines and cosines pattern, a nonparametric technique using Fourier series approach may be interesting...

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Autores principales:	Intaniah Ratna Nur Wisisono, Ade Irma Nurwahidah, Yudhie Andriyana
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Department of Mathematics, UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya 2018
Materias:	Fourier, ARIMA, River discharge, Nonparametric Mathematics QA1-939
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ba2cbfd38d0043a9902cafe852484203
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ba2cbfd38d0043a9902cafe8524842032021-12-02T16:56:13ZRegresi Nonparametrik dengan Pendekatan Deret Fourier pada Data Debit Air Sungai Citarum2527-31592527-316710.15642/mantik.2018.4.2.75-82https://doaj.org/article/ba2cbfd38d0043a9902cafe8524842032018-10-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jurnalsaintek.uinsby.ac.id/index.php/mantik/article/view/357https://doaj.org/toc/2527-3159https://doaj.org/toc/2527-3167River discharge is one of the factors that affect the occurrence of floods. It varies over time and hence we need to predict the flood risk. Since the plot of the data changes periodically showing a sines and cosines pattern, a nonparametric technique using Fourier series approach may be interesting to be applied. Fourier series can be estimated using OLS (Ordinary Least Square). In a Fourier series, nonparametric regression the level of subtlety of its function is determined by their bandwidth (K). Optimal bandwidth determined using the GCV (Generalized Cross Validation) method. From the calculation results, we have optimal bandwidth which is equal to 16 with R2 is 0.7295 which means that 72.95% of the total variance in the river discharge variable can be explained by the Fourier series nonparametric regression model. Comparing to a classical time series technique, ARIMA Box Jenkins, we obtained ARIMA (1,0,0) with RMSE 83.10 while using Fourier series approach generate a smaller RMSE 50.51.Intaniah Ratna Nur WisisonoAde Irma NurwahidahYudhie AndriyanaDepartment of Mathematics, UIN Sunan Ampel SurabayaarticleFourier, ARIMA, River discharge, NonparametricMathematicsQA1-939ENMantik: Jurnal Matematika, Vol 4, Iss 2, Pp 75-82 (2018)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Fourier, ARIMA, River discharge, Nonparametric Mathematics QA1-939
spellingShingle	Fourier, ARIMA, River discharge, Nonparametric Mathematics QA1-939 Intaniah Ratna Nur Wisisono Ade Irma Nurwahidah Yudhie Andriyana Regresi Nonparametrik dengan Pendekatan Deret Fourier pada Data Debit Air Sungai Citarum
description	River discharge is one of the factors that affect the occurrence of floods. It varies over time and hence we need to predict the flood risk. Since the plot of the data changes periodically showing a sines and cosines pattern, a nonparametric technique using Fourier series approach may be interesting to be applied. Fourier series can be estimated using OLS (Ordinary Least Square). In a Fourier series, nonparametric regression the level of subtlety of its function is determined by their bandwidth (K). Optimal bandwidth determined using the GCV (Generalized Cross Validation) method. From the calculation results, we have optimal bandwidth which is equal to 16 with R2 is 0.7295 which means that 72.95% of the total variance in the river discharge variable can be explained by the Fourier series nonparametric regression model. Comparing to a classical time series technique, ARIMA Box Jenkins, we obtained ARIMA (1,0,0) with RMSE 83.10 while using Fourier series approach generate a smaller RMSE 50.51.
format	article
author	Intaniah Ratna Nur Wisisono Ade Irma Nurwahidah Yudhie Andriyana
author_facet	Intaniah Ratna Nur Wisisono Ade Irma Nurwahidah Yudhie Andriyana
author_sort	Intaniah Ratna Nur Wisisono
title	Regresi Nonparametrik dengan Pendekatan Deret Fourier pada Data Debit Air Sungai Citarum
title_short	Regresi Nonparametrik dengan Pendekatan Deret Fourier pada Data Debit Air Sungai Citarum
title_full	Regresi Nonparametrik dengan Pendekatan Deret Fourier pada Data Debit Air Sungai Citarum
title_fullStr	Regresi Nonparametrik dengan Pendekatan Deret Fourier pada Data Debit Air Sungai Citarum
title_full_unstemmed	Regresi Nonparametrik dengan Pendekatan Deret Fourier pada Data Debit Air Sungai Citarum
title_sort	regresi nonparametrik dengan pendekatan deret fourier pada data debit air sungai citarum
publisher	Department of Mathematics, UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya
publishDate	2018
url	https://doaj.org/article/ba2cbfd38d0043a9902cafe852484203
work_keys_str_mv	AT intaniahratnanurwisisono regresinonparametrikdenganpendekatanderetfourierpadadatadebitairsungaicitarum AT adeirmanurwahidah regresinonparametrikdenganpendekatanderetfourierpadadatadebitairsungaicitarum AT yudhieandriyana regresinonparametrikdenganpendekatanderetfourierpadadatadebitairsungaicitarum
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Regresi Nonparametrik dengan Pendekatan Deret Fourier pada Data Debit Air Sungai Citarum

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