A Probabilistic and Value-Based Planning Approach to Assess the Competitiveness between Gas-Fired and Renewables in Hydro-Dominated Systems: A Brazilian Case Study

The main challenge with the penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) in thermal-dominated systems has been the increase in the need for operating reserves, relying on dispatchable and flexible resources. In the case of hydro-dominated systems, the cost-effective flexibility provided by hydro-p...

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Autores principales:	Felipe Nazaré, Luiz Barroso, Bernardo Bezerra
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	power system expansion co-optimization of energy and reserve associated natural gas multi-stage stochastic programming electricity-gas integration Technology T
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ba2ec0fea95b4ff5b017ad95c33a7359
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ba2ec0fea95b4ff5b017ad95c33a73592021-11-11T16:01:45ZA Probabilistic and Value-Based Planning Approach to Assess the Competitiveness between Gas-Fired and Renewables in Hydro-Dominated Systems: A Brazilian Case Study10.3390/en142172811996-1073https://doaj.org/article/ba2ec0fea95b4ff5b017ad95c33a73592021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/21/7281https://doaj.org/toc/1996-1073The main challenge with the penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) in thermal-dominated systems has been the increase in the need for operating reserves, relying on dispatchable and flexible resources. In the case of hydro-dominated systems, the cost-effective flexibility provided by hydro-plants facilitates the penetration of VRE, but the compounded production variability of these resources challenges the integration of baseload gas-fired plants. The Brazilian power system illustrates this situation, in which the development of large associated gas fields economically depends on the operation of gas-fired plants. Given the current competitiveness of VRE, a natural question is the economic value and tradeoffs for expanding the system opting between baseload gas-fired generation and VRE in an already flexible hydropower system. This paper presents a methodology based on a multi-stage and stochastic capacity expansion model to estimate the optimal mix of baseload thermal power plants and VRE additions considering their contributions for security of supply, which includes peak, energy, and operating reserves, which are endogenously defined in a time-varying and sized in a dynamic way as well as adequacy constraints. The presented model calculates the optimal decision plan, allowing for the estimation of the economical tradeoffs between baseload gas and VRE supply considering their value for the required services to the system. This allows for a comparison between the integration costs of these technologies on the same basis, thus helping policymakers and system planners to better decide on the best way to integrate the gas resources in an electricity industry increasingly renewable. A case study based on a real industrial application is presented for the Brazilian power system.Felipe NazaréLuiz BarrosoBernardo BezerraMDPI AGarticlepower system expansionco-optimization of energy and reserveassociated natural gasmulti-stage stochastic programmingelectricity-gas integrationTechnologyTENEnergies, Vol 14, Iss 7281, p 7281 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	power system expansion co-optimization of energy and reserve associated natural gas multi-stage stochastic programming electricity-gas integration Technology T
spellingShingle	power system expansion co-optimization of energy and reserve associated natural gas multi-stage stochastic programming electricity-gas integration Technology T Felipe Nazaré Luiz Barroso Bernardo Bezerra A Probabilistic and Value-Based Planning Approach to Assess the Competitiveness between Gas-Fired and Renewables in Hydro-Dominated Systems: A Brazilian Case Study
description	The main challenge with the penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) in thermal-dominated systems has been the increase in the need for operating reserves, relying on dispatchable and flexible resources. In the case of hydro-dominated systems, the cost-effective flexibility provided by hydro-plants facilitates the penetration of VRE, but the compounded production variability of these resources challenges the integration of baseload gas-fired plants. The Brazilian power system illustrates this situation, in which the development of large associated gas fields economically depends on the operation of gas-fired plants. Given the current competitiveness of VRE, a natural question is the economic value and tradeoffs for expanding the system opting between baseload gas-fired generation and VRE in an already flexible hydropower system. This paper presents a methodology based on a multi-stage and stochastic capacity expansion model to estimate the optimal mix of baseload thermal power plants and VRE additions considering their contributions for security of supply, which includes peak, energy, and operating reserves, which are endogenously defined in a time-varying and sized in a dynamic way as well as adequacy constraints. The presented model calculates the optimal decision plan, allowing for the estimation of the economical tradeoffs between baseload gas and VRE supply considering their value for the required services to the system. This allows for a comparison between the integration costs of these technologies on the same basis, thus helping policymakers and system planners to better decide on the best way to integrate the gas resources in an electricity industry increasingly renewable. A case study based on a real industrial application is presented for the Brazilian power system.
format	article
author	Felipe Nazaré Luiz Barroso Bernardo Bezerra
author_facet	Felipe Nazaré Luiz Barroso Bernardo Bezerra
author_sort	Felipe Nazaré
title	A Probabilistic and Value-Based Planning Approach to Assess the Competitiveness between Gas-Fired and Renewables in Hydro-Dominated Systems: A Brazilian Case Study
title_short	A Probabilistic and Value-Based Planning Approach to Assess the Competitiveness between Gas-Fired and Renewables in Hydro-Dominated Systems: A Brazilian Case Study
title_full	A Probabilistic and Value-Based Planning Approach to Assess the Competitiveness between Gas-Fired and Renewables in Hydro-Dominated Systems: A Brazilian Case Study
title_fullStr	A Probabilistic and Value-Based Planning Approach to Assess the Competitiveness between Gas-Fired and Renewables in Hydro-Dominated Systems: A Brazilian Case Study
title_full_unstemmed	A Probabilistic and Value-Based Planning Approach to Assess the Competitiveness between Gas-Fired and Renewables in Hydro-Dominated Systems: A Brazilian Case Study
title_sort	probabilistic and value-based planning approach to assess the competitiveness between gas-fired and renewables in hydro-dominated systems: a brazilian case study
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ba2ec0fea95b4ff5b017ad95c33a7359
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A Probabilistic and Value-Based Planning Approach to Assess the Competitiveness between Gas-Fired and Renewables in Hydro-Dominated Systems: A Brazilian Case Study

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