Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming

Abstract The hydrological characteristics of a river, including the magnitude and timing of high and low flows, are important determinants of its ecological functioning. Climate change will alter these characteristics, triggering ecological changes in river ecosystems. This study assesses risks of e...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	J. R. Thompson, S. N. Gosling, J. Zaherpour, C. L. R. Laizé
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2021
Materias:	climate change environmental flows river ecology global hydrology high flows low flows Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ba92f6cbdd05435ab75e13cbcc663c3e
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:ba92f6cbdd05435ab75e13cbcc663c3e
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ba92f6cbdd05435ab75e13cbcc663c3e2021-11-23T18:30:30ZIncreasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming2328-427710.1029/2021EF002048https://doaj.org/article/ba92f6cbdd05435ab75e13cbcc663c3e2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002048https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277Abstract The hydrological characteristics of a river, including the magnitude and timing of high and low flows, are important determinants of its ecological functioning. Climate change will alter these characteristics, triggering ecological changes in river ecosystems. This study assesses risks of ecological change in 321 major river basins across the globe due to global warming relative to pre‐industrial conditions of 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0°C. Risks associated with climate‐driven changes to high and low flows, relative to baseline (1980–2010; 0.6°C warming), are investigated using simulations from nine global hydrological models forced with climate projections from five global climate models, resulting in an ensemble of 14,445 baseline‐scenario members for each warming scenario (9 × 5 × 321). At the global‐scale, the likelihood of high risks of significant ecological change in both high and low flows increase with global warming: across all basins there is a medium‐high risk of change in high (low) flows in 21.4% (22.4%) of ensemble members for 1.0°C warming, increasing to 61.5% (63.2%) for 3.0°C. Risks are particularly pronounced for low flows at 3.0°C for many rivers in South America, southern Africa, Australia, southern Europe and central and eastern USA. Results suggest that boreal regions are least likely to see significant ecological change due to modified river flows but this may be partly the result of the exclusion of processes such as permafrost dynamics from most global hydrological models. The study highlights the ecological fragility and spatial heterogeneity of the risks that unmitigated climate change poses to global river ecosystems.J. R. ThompsonS. N. GoslingJ. ZaherpourC. L. R. LaizéAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)articleclimate changeenvironmental flowsriver ecologyglobal hydrologyhigh flowslow flowsEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350EcologyQH540-549.5ENEarth's Future, Vol 9, Iss 11, Pp n/a-n/a (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate change environmental flows river ecology global hydrology high flows low flows Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	climate change environmental flows river ecology global hydrology high flows low flows Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 J. R. Thompson S. N. Gosling J. Zaherpour C. L. R. Laizé Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming
description	Abstract The hydrological characteristics of a river, including the magnitude and timing of high and low flows, are important determinants of its ecological functioning. Climate change will alter these characteristics, triggering ecological changes in river ecosystems. This study assesses risks of ecological change in 321 major river basins across the globe due to global warming relative to pre‐industrial conditions of 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0°C. Risks associated with climate‐driven changes to high and low flows, relative to baseline (1980–2010; 0.6°C warming), are investigated using simulations from nine global hydrological models forced with climate projections from five global climate models, resulting in an ensemble of 14,445 baseline‐scenario members for each warming scenario (9 × 5 × 321). At the global‐scale, the likelihood of high risks of significant ecological change in both high and low flows increase with global warming: across all basins there is a medium‐high risk of change in high (low) flows in 21.4% (22.4%) of ensemble members for 1.0°C warming, increasing to 61.5% (63.2%) for 3.0°C. Risks are particularly pronounced for low flows at 3.0°C for many rivers in South America, southern Africa, Australia, southern Europe and central and eastern USA. Results suggest that boreal regions are least likely to see significant ecological change due to modified river flows but this may be partly the result of the exclusion of processes such as permafrost dynamics from most global hydrological models. The study highlights the ecological fragility and spatial heterogeneity of the risks that unmitigated climate change poses to global river ecosystems.
format	article
author	J. R. Thompson S. N. Gosling J. Zaherpour C. L. R. Laizé
author_facet	J. R. Thompson S. N. Gosling J. Zaherpour C. L. R. Laizé
author_sort	J. R. Thompson
title	Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming
title_short	Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming
title_full	Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming
title_fullStr	Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming
title_full_unstemmed	Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming
title_sort	increasing risk of ecological change to major rivers of the world with global warming
publisher	American Geophysical Union (AGU)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ba92f6cbdd05435ab75e13cbcc663c3e
work_keys_str_mv	AT jrthompson increasingriskofecologicalchangetomajorriversoftheworldwithglobalwarming AT sngosling increasingriskofecologicalchangetomajorriversoftheworldwithglobalwarming AT jzaherpour increasingriskofecologicalchangetomajorriversoftheworldwithglobalwarming AT clrlaize increasingriskofecologicalchangetomajorriversoftheworldwithglobalwarming
_version_	1718416177968971776

Increasing Risk of Ecological Change to Major Rivers of the World With Global Warming

Ejemplares similares