Effects of climate change and land cover on the distributions of a critical tree family in the Philippines

Abstract Southeast Asian forests are dominated by the tree family Dipterocarpaceae, whose abundance and diversity are key to maintaining the structure and function of tropical forests. Like most biodiversity, dipterocarps are threatened by deforestation and climate change, so it is crucial to unders...

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Autores principales:	Sean E. H. Pang, Jose Don T. De Alban, Edward L. Webb
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/bb261a75acfd4ec7b2329ea1fe63414c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:bb261a75acfd4ec7b2329ea1fe63414c2021-12-02T14:12:46ZEffects of climate change and land cover on the distributions of a critical tree family in the Philippines10.1038/s41598-020-79491-92045-2322https://doaj.org/article/bb261a75acfd4ec7b2329ea1fe63414c2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-79491-9https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Southeast Asian forests are dominated by the tree family Dipterocarpaceae, whose abundance and diversity are key to maintaining the structure and function of tropical forests. Like most biodiversity, dipterocarps are threatened by deforestation and climate change, so it is crucial to understand the potential impacts of these threats on current and future dipterocarp distributions. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) for 19 species of dipterocarps in the Philippines, which were projected onto current and two 2070 representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Current land cover was incorporated as a post-hoc correction to restrict projections onto intact habitats. Land cover correction alone reduced current species distributions by a median 67%, and within protected areas by 37%. After land cover correction, climate change reduced distributions by a median 16% (RCP 4.5) and 27% (RCP 8.5) at the national level, with similar losses in protected areas. There was a detectable upward elevation shift of species distributions, consisting of suitable habitat losses below 300 m and gains above 600 m. Species-rich stable areas of continued habitat suitability (i.e., climate macrorefugia) fell largely outside current delineations of protected areas, indicating a need to improve protected area planning. This study highlights how SDMs can provide projections that can inform protected area planning in the tropics.Sean E. H. PangJose Don T. De AlbanEdward L. WebbNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Sean E. H. Pang Jose Don T. De Alban Edward L. Webb Effects of climate change and land cover on the distributions of a critical tree family in the Philippines
description	Abstract Southeast Asian forests are dominated by the tree family Dipterocarpaceae, whose abundance and diversity are key to maintaining the structure and function of tropical forests. Like most biodiversity, dipterocarps are threatened by deforestation and climate change, so it is crucial to understand the potential impacts of these threats on current and future dipterocarp distributions. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) for 19 species of dipterocarps in the Philippines, which were projected onto current and two 2070 representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Current land cover was incorporated as a post-hoc correction to restrict projections onto intact habitats. Land cover correction alone reduced current species distributions by a median 67%, and within protected areas by 37%. After land cover correction, climate change reduced distributions by a median 16% (RCP 4.5) and 27% (RCP 8.5) at the national level, with similar losses in protected areas. There was a detectable upward elevation shift of species distributions, consisting of suitable habitat losses below 300 m and gains above 600 m. Species-rich stable areas of continued habitat suitability (i.e., climate macrorefugia) fell largely outside current delineations of protected areas, indicating a need to improve protected area planning. This study highlights how SDMs can provide projections that can inform protected area planning in the tropics.
format	article
author	Sean E. H. Pang Jose Don T. De Alban Edward L. Webb
author_facet	Sean E. H. Pang Jose Don T. De Alban Edward L. Webb
author_sort	Sean E. H. Pang
title	Effects of climate change and land cover on the distributions of a critical tree family in the Philippines
title_short	Effects of climate change and land cover on the distributions of a critical tree family in the Philippines
title_full	Effects of climate change and land cover on the distributions of a critical tree family in the Philippines
title_fullStr	Effects of climate change and land cover on the distributions of a critical tree family in the Philippines
title_full_unstemmed	Effects of climate change and land cover on the distributions of a critical tree family in the Philippines
title_sort	effects of climate change and land cover on the distributions of a critical tree family in the philippines
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/bb261a75acfd4ec7b2329ea1fe63414c
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Effects of climate change and land cover on the distributions of a critical tree family in the Philippines

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