MODELING ECONOMIC AGENTS’ EXPECTATIONS AS A TOOL OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CYCLES

The article shows the necessity to develop, substantiate (verify) and test models of cyclic fluctuations of economy built on the basis of such factors, which could have high sensitivity to changes in external and internal environment of the economic system and possess high predictability of cyclic t...

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Autores principales:	Leonid A. Elshin, Maxim V. Savushkin
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	RU
Publicado:	Plekhanov Russian University of Economics 2017
Materias:	economic agents’ expectations short-term cycles of economy forecasting phase shifts cross-correlation analysis cycles of leading development Economics as a science HB71-74
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/bb5604ecac584d1aafc3b5d823e15d2c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:bb5604ecac584d1aafc3b5d823e15d2c2021-11-15T05:20:45ZMODELING ECONOMIC AGENTS’ EXPECTATIONS AS A TOOL OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CYCLES2413-28292587-925110.21686/2413-2829-2017-2-34-39https://doaj.org/article/bb5604ecac584d1aafc3b5d823e15d2c2017-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://vest.rea.ru/jour/article/view/265https://doaj.org/toc/2413-2829https://doaj.org/toc/2587-9251The article shows the necessity to develop, substantiate (verify) and test models of cyclic fluctuations of economy built on the basis of such factors, which could have high sensitivity to changes in external and internal environment of the economic system and possess high predictability of cyclic trends. The authors prove that a possible way to resolve the problem is to model economic agents’ expectations and identify trends of their economic development. On the basis of quantitative estimation of economic agents’ expectations they designed algorithm for diagnosing cyclic fluctuations of economy, which gives an opportunity to identify rising and declining phases of economic cycles with an advance lag of 1-2 years with the effective trajectory of economic development of national economy.Leonid A. ElshinMaxim V. SavushkinPlekhanov Russian University of Economicsarticleeconomic agents’ expectationsshort-term cycles of economyforecastingphase shiftscross-correlation analysiscycles of leading developmentEconomics as a scienceHB71-74RUВестник Российского экономического университета имени Г. В. Плеханова, Vol 0, Iss 2, Pp 34-39 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	RU
topic	economic agents’ expectations short-term cycles of economy forecasting phase shifts cross-correlation analysis cycles of leading development Economics as a science HB71-74
spellingShingle	economic agents’ expectations short-term cycles of economy forecasting phase shifts cross-correlation analysis cycles of leading development Economics as a science HB71-74 Leonid A. Elshin Maxim V. Savushkin MODELING ECONOMIC AGENTS’ EXPECTATIONS AS A TOOL OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CYCLES
description	The article shows the necessity to develop, substantiate (verify) and test models of cyclic fluctuations of economy built on the basis of such factors, which could have high sensitivity to changes in external and internal environment of the economic system and possess high predictability of cyclic trends. The authors prove that a possible way to resolve the problem is to model economic agents’ expectations and identify trends of their economic development. On the basis of quantitative estimation of economic agents’ expectations they designed algorithm for diagnosing cyclic fluctuations of economy, which gives an opportunity to identify rising and declining phases of economic cycles with an advance lag of 1-2 years with the effective trajectory of economic development of national economy.
format	article
author	Leonid A. Elshin Maxim V. Savushkin
author_facet	Leonid A. Elshin Maxim V. Savushkin
author_sort	Leonid A. Elshin
title	MODELING ECONOMIC AGENTS’ EXPECTATIONS AS A TOOL OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CYCLES
title_short	MODELING ECONOMIC AGENTS’ EXPECTATIONS AS A TOOL OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CYCLES
title_full	MODELING ECONOMIC AGENTS’ EXPECTATIONS AS A TOOL OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CYCLES
title_fullStr	MODELING ECONOMIC AGENTS’ EXPECTATIONS AS A TOOL OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CYCLES
title_full_unstemmed	MODELING ECONOMIC AGENTS’ EXPECTATIONS AS A TOOL OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CYCLES
title_sort	modeling economic agents’ expectations as a tool of forecasting short-term economic cycles
publisher	Plekhanov Russian University of Economics
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/bb5604ecac584d1aafc3b5d823e15d2c
work_keys_str_mv	AT leonidaelshin modelingeconomicagentsexpectationsasatoolofforecastingshorttermeconomiccycles AT maximvsavushkin modelingeconomicagentsexpectationsasatoolofforecastingshorttermeconomiccycles
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MODELING ECONOMIC AGENTS’ EXPECTATIONS AS A TOOL OF FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CYCLES

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