A dynamic modelling analysis of the impact of tobacco control programs on population-level nicotine dependence

Abstract According to the ‘hardening hypothesis’, average nicotine dependence will increase as less dependent smokers quit relatively easily in response to effective public health interventions, so that sustained progress in reducing smoking prevalence will depend on shifting the emphasis of tobacco...

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Autores principales:	Adam Skinner, Jo-An Occhipinti, Nathaniel D. Osgood
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/bb63b60580e4417c971fe9b315fb8733
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:bb63b60580e4417c971fe9b315fb87332021-12-02T15:23:39ZA dynamic modelling analysis of the impact of tobacco control programs on population-level nicotine dependence10.1038/s41598-021-81460-92045-2322https://doaj.org/article/bb63b60580e4417c971fe9b315fb87332021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81460-9https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract According to the ‘hardening hypothesis’, average nicotine dependence will increase as less dependent smokers quit relatively easily in response to effective public health interventions, so that sustained progress in reducing smoking prevalence will depend on shifting the emphasis of tobacco control programs towards intensive treatment of heavily dependent smokers (who comprise an increasing fraction of continuing smokers). We used a system dynamics model of smoking behaviour to explore the potential for hardening in a population of smokers exposed to effective tobacco control measures over an extended period. Policy-induced increases in the per capita cessation rate are shown to lead inevitably to a decline in the proportion of smokers who are heavily dependent, contrary to the hardening hypothesis. Changes in smoking behaviour in Australia over the period 2001‒2016 resulted in substantial decreases in current smoking prevalence (from 23.1% in 2001 to 14.6% in 2016) and the proportion of heavily dependent smokers in the smoking population (from 52.1% to 36.9%). Public health interventions that have proved particularly effective in reducing smoking prevalence (tobacco tax increases, smoke-free environment legislation, antismoking mass media campaigns) are expected to also contribute to a decline in population-level nicotine dependence.Adam SkinnerJo-An OcchipintiNathaniel D. OsgoodNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Adam Skinner Jo-An Occhipinti Nathaniel D. Osgood A dynamic modelling analysis of the impact of tobacco control programs on population-level nicotine dependence
description	Abstract According to the ‘hardening hypothesis’, average nicotine dependence will increase as less dependent smokers quit relatively easily in response to effective public health interventions, so that sustained progress in reducing smoking prevalence will depend on shifting the emphasis of tobacco control programs towards intensive treatment of heavily dependent smokers (who comprise an increasing fraction of continuing smokers). We used a system dynamics model of smoking behaviour to explore the potential for hardening in a population of smokers exposed to effective tobacco control measures over an extended period. Policy-induced increases in the per capita cessation rate are shown to lead inevitably to a decline in the proportion of smokers who are heavily dependent, contrary to the hardening hypothesis. Changes in smoking behaviour in Australia over the period 2001‒2016 resulted in substantial decreases in current smoking prevalence (from 23.1% in 2001 to 14.6% in 2016) and the proportion of heavily dependent smokers in the smoking population (from 52.1% to 36.9%). Public health interventions that have proved particularly effective in reducing smoking prevalence (tobacco tax increases, smoke-free environment legislation, antismoking mass media campaigns) are expected to also contribute to a decline in population-level nicotine dependence.
format	article
author	Adam Skinner Jo-An Occhipinti Nathaniel D. Osgood
author_facet	Adam Skinner Jo-An Occhipinti Nathaniel D. Osgood
author_sort	Adam Skinner
title	A dynamic modelling analysis of the impact of tobacco control programs on population-level nicotine dependence
title_short	A dynamic modelling analysis of the impact of tobacco control programs on population-level nicotine dependence
title_full	A dynamic modelling analysis of the impact of tobacco control programs on population-level nicotine dependence
title_fullStr	A dynamic modelling analysis of the impact of tobacco control programs on population-level nicotine dependence
title_full_unstemmed	A dynamic modelling analysis of the impact of tobacco control programs on population-level nicotine dependence
title_sort	dynamic modelling analysis of the impact of tobacco control programs on population-level nicotine dependence
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/bb63b60580e4417c971fe9b315fb8733
work_keys_str_mv	AT adamskinner adynamicmodellinganalysisoftheimpactoftobaccocontrolprogramsonpopulationlevelnicotinedependence AT joanocchipinti adynamicmodellinganalysisoftheimpactoftobaccocontrolprogramsonpopulationlevelnicotinedependence AT nathanieldosgood adynamicmodellinganalysisoftheimpactoftobaccocontrolprogramsonpopulationlevelnicotinedependence AT adamskinner dynamicmodellinganalysisoftheimpactoftobaccocontrolprogramsonpopulationlevelnicotinedependence AT joanocchipinti dynamicmodellinganalysisoftheimpactoftobaccocontrolprogramsonpopulationlevelnicotinedependence AT nathanieldosgood dynamicmodellinganalysisoftheimpactoftobaccocontrolprogramsonpopulationlevelnicotinedependence
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A dynamic modelling analysis of the impact of tobacco control programs on population-level nicotine dependence

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