Grid-based simulation of river flows in Northern Ireland: Model performance and future flow changes

Study region: Northern Ireland (NI), and sub-catchments in the Republic of Ireland that drain to NI rivers, Study focus: Information on the potential future impacts of climate change on river flows is necessary for adaptation planning. There have been many such studies for Great Britain, but fewer f...

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Autores principales:	A.L. Kay, H.N. Davies, R.A. Lane, A.C. Rudd, V.A. Bell
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Climate change Hydrological impacts Rainfall-runoff UK Climate Projections 2018 UKCP18 Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/bc1edc90344a49a3a14ea649e2685f13
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:bc1edc90344a49a3a14ea649e2685f13
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:bc1edc90344a49a3a14ea649e2685f132021-11-10T04:27:27ZGrid-based simulation of river flows in Northern Ireland: Model performance and future flow changes2214-581810.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100967https://doaj.org/article/bc1edc90344a49a3a14ea649e2685f132021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581821001968https://doaj.org/toc/2214-5818Study region: Northern Ireland (NI), and sub-catchments in the Republic of Ireland that drain to NI rivers, Study focus: Information on the potential future impacts of climate change on river flows is necessary for adaptation planning. There have been many such studies for Great Britain, but fewer for NI. Here, a grid-based hydrological model is configured for NI, and used to investigate changes in seasonal mean, extreme high and extreme low flows. New Hydrological Insights: When driven by observed climate data, the model shows good performance for a wide range of catchments, particularly where artificial influences are limited. When driven by ensemble data from the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) projections, model performance for the baseline period (1981–2010) is similar to that using observed data, especially when using a simple precipitation bias-correction. Model projections for a future time-slice (2051–2080) generally suggest decreases in spring–autumn mean flows, especially in summer (median −44%), but possible increases in winter mean flows (median 9%), with some variation between ensemble members, particularly in winter when some show large increases to the west. Consistent with this are large projected reductions in 10-year return period low flows everywhere (median −45%), and large increases in 10-year return period high flows for some locations and ensemble members (median 16%). Future applications could include expanding the range of climate data applied.A.L. KayH.N. DaviesR.A. LaneA.C. RuddV.A. BellElsevierarticleClimate changeHydrological impactsRainfall-runoffUK Climate Projections 2018UKCP18Physical geographyGB3-5030GeologyQE1-996.5ENJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol 38, Iss , Pp 100967- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Climate change Hydrological impacts Rainfall-runoff UK Climate Projections 2018 UKCP18 Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5
spellingShingle	Climate change Hydrological impacts Rainfall-runoff UK Climate Projections 2018 UKCP18 Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5 A.L. Kay H.N. Davies R.A. Lane A.C. Rudd V.A. Bell Grid-based simulation of river flows in Northern Ireland: Model performance and future flow changes
description	Study region: Northern Ireland (NI), and sub-catchments in the Republic of Ireland that drain to NI rivers, Study focus: Information on the potential future impacts of climate change on river flows is necessary for adaptation planning. There have been many such studies for Great Britain, but fewer for NI. Here, a grid-based hydrological model is configured for NI, and used to investigate changes in seasonal mean, extreme high and extreme low flows. New Hydrological Insights: When driven by observed climate data, the model shows good performance for a wide range of catchments, particularly where artificial influences are limited. When driven by ensemble data from the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) projections, model performance for the baseline period (1981–2010) is similar to that using observed data, especially when using a simple precipitation bias-correction. Model projections for a future time-slice (2051–2080) generally suggest decreases in spring–autumn mean flows, especially in summer (median −44%), but possible increases in winter mean flows (median 9%), with some variation between ensemble members, particularly in winter when some show large increases to the west. Consistent with this are large projected reductions in 10-year return period low flows everywhere (median −45%), and large increases in 10-year return period high flows for some locations and ensemble members (median 16%). Future applications could include expanding the range of climate data applied.
format	article
author	A.L. Kay H.N. Davies R.A. Lane A.C. Rudd V.A. Bell
author_facet	A.L. Kay H.N. Davies R.A. Lane A.C. Rudd V.A. Bell
author_sort	A.L. Kay
title	Grid-based simulation of river flows in Northern Ireland: Model performance and future flow changes
title_short	Grid-based simulation of river flows in Northern Ireland: Model performance and future flow changes
title_full	Grid-based simulation of river flows in Northern Ireland: Model performance and future flow changes
title_fullStr	Grid-based simulation of river flows in Northern Ireland: Model performance and future flow changes
title_full_unstemmed	Grid-based simulation of river flows in Northern Ireland: Model performance and future flow changes
title_sort	grid-based simulation of river flows in northern ireland: model performance and future flow changes
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/bc1edc90344a49a3a14ea649e2685f13
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Grid-based simulation of river flows in Northern Ireland: Model performance and future flow changes

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