The Increasing Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Northeastern Atlantic Sector

North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are major atmospheric hazards that can cause large disruptions to coastal and near-coastal societies. Although most studies focus on those areas with highest impact (e.g., Caribbean Islands, the Gulf and western coast of United States), there is an increasing i...

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Autores principales:	Miguel M. Lima, Alexandra Hurduc, Alexandre M. Ramos, Ricardo M. Trigo
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	tropical cyclone Northeastern Atlantic sector accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) Western Europe Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/bca7aeb0ca1b462ab76799bbd6956413
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:bca7aeb0ca1b462ab76799bbd6956413
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:bca7aeb0ca1b462ab76799bbd69564132021-11-05T13:54:38ZThe Increasing Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Northeastern Atlantic Sector2296-646310.3389/feart.2021.745115https://doaj.org/article/bca7aeb0ca1b462ab76799bbd69564132021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.745115/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are major atmospheric hazards that can cause large disruptions to coastal and near-coastal societies. Although most studies focus on those areas with highest impact (e.g., Caribbean Islands, the Gulf and western coast of United States), there is an increasing interest in characterizing changes in occurrence and impacts in areas usually less affected by TCs, particularly in the framework of a changing climate. Here we provide a long-term context evaluating changes in the frequency of TC in the Northeast Atlantic (NEA) basin during the 1978–2019 period. In the last decades, scattered information has shown an impact both from TCs and Post-Tropical Cyclones (PTC) in the NEA. We compute several complementary linear trends and show a significant (p ≤ 0.1) increase in the number of stronger storms in the entire North Atlantic basin, and the amount of TCs and PTCs that reach the NEA, in agreement with previous works. A highly significant relation (p ≤ 0.05) is found between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index and TC activity in both the entire North Atlantic and the NEA basin. Sea surface temperature anomaly maps are produced to better encapsulate the annual variability without the multidecadal oscillation effects and, important cold (warm) pools in cyclogenesis and development zones are found in years with low (high) TC activity. It is also found that the sea surface temperature field plays a minor role in the guiding of storms into the NEA sector. Long-term trends as well as high/low seasonal activity analysis suggest that atmospheric circulation (vertical wind shear, lapse rate, mean sea level pressure and upper-level steering) is more relevant than sea surface temperature in the NEA region.Miguel M. LimaAlexandra HurducAlexandre M. RamosRicardo M. TrigoRicardo M. TrigoFrontiers Media S.A.articletropical cycloneNortheastern Atlantic sectoraccumulated cyclone energy (ACE)atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO)Western EuropeScienceQENFrontiers in Earth Science, Vol 9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	tropical cyclone Northeastern Atlantic sector accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) Western Europe Science Q
spellingShingle	tropical cyclone Northeastern Atlantic sector accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) Western Europe Science Q Miguel M. Lima Alexandra Hurduc Alexandre M. Ramos Ricardo M. Trigo Ricardo M. Trigo The Increasing Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Northeastern Atlantic Sector
description	North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are major atmospheric hazards that can cause large disruptions to coastal and near-coastal societies. Although most studies focus on those areas with highest impact (e.g., Caribbean Islands, the Gulf and western coast of United States), there is an increasing interest in characterizing changes in occurrence and impacts in areas usually less affected by TCs, particularly in the framework of a changing climate. Here we provide a long-term context evaluating changes in the frequency of TC in the Northeast Atlantic (NEA) basin during the 1978–2019 period. In the last decades, scattered information has shown an impact both from TCs and Post-Tropical Cyclones (PTC) in the NEA. We compute several complementary linear trends and show a significant (p ≤ 0.1) increase in the number of stronger storms in the entire North Atlantic basin, and the amount of TCs and PTCs that reach the NEA, in agreement with previous works. A highly significant relation (p ≤ 0.05) is found between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index and TC activity in both the entire North Atlantic and the NEA basin. Sea surface temperature anomaly maps are produced to better encapsulate the annual variability without the multidecadal oscillation effects and, important cold (warm) pools in cyclogenesis and development zones are found in years with low (high) TC activity. It is also found that the sea surface temperature field plays a minor role in the guiding of storms into the NEA sector. Long-term trends as well as high/low seasonal activity analysis suggest that atmospheric circulation (vertical wind shear, lapse rate, mean sea level pressure and upper-level steering) is more relevant than sea surface temperature in the NEA region.
format	article
author	Miguel M. Lima Alexandra Hurduc Alexandre M. Ramos Ricardo M. Trigo Ricardo M. Trigo
author_facet	Miguel M. Lima Alexandra Hurduc Alexandre M. Ramos Ricardo M. Trigo Ricardo M. Trigo
author_sort	Miguel M. Lima
title	The Increasing Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Northeastern Atlantic Sector
title_short	The Increasing Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Northeastern Atlantic Sector
title_full	The Increasing Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Northeastern Atlantic Sector
title_fullStr	The Increasing Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Northeastern Atlantic Sector
title_full_unstemmed	The Increasing Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Northeastern Atlantic Sector
title_sort	increasing frequency of tropical cyclones in the northeastern atlantic sector
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/bca7aeb0ca1b462ab76799bbd6956413
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The Increasing Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Northeastern Atlantic Sector

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