Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread.

Human travel is one of the primary drivers of infectious disease spread. Models of travel are often used that assume the amount of travel to a specific destination decreases as cost of travel increases with higher travel volumes to more populated destinations. Trip duration, the length of time spent...

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Autores principales:	John R Giles, Derek A T Cummings, Bryan T Grenfell, Andrew J Tatem, Elisabeth Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Cje Metcalf, Amy Wesolowski
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Biology (General) QH301-705.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/bcb974793f1b4f99beefc62160a2da4f
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:bcb974793f1b4f99beefc62160a2da4f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:bcb974793f1b4f99beefc62160a2da4f2021-12-02T19:58:06ZTrip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread.1553-734X1553-735810.1371/journal.pcbi.1009127https://doaj.org/article/bcb974793f1b4f99beefc62160a2da4f2021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009127https://doaj.org/toc/1553-734Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/1553-7358Human travel is one of the primary drivers of infectious disease spread. Models of travel are often used that assume the amount of travel to a specific destination decreases as cost of travel increases with higher travel volumes to more populated destinations. Trip duration, the length of time spent in a destination, can also impact travel patterns. We investigated the spatial patterns of travel conditioned on trip duration and find distinct differences between short and long duration trips. In short-trip duration travel networks, trips are skewed towards urban destinations, compared with long-trip duration networks where travel is more evenly spread among locations. Using gravity models to inform connectivity patterns in simulations of disease transmission, we show that pathogens with shorter generation times exhibit initial patterns of spatial propagation that are more predictable among urban locations. Further, pathogens with a longer generation time have more diffusive patterns of spatial spread reflecting more unpredictable disease dynamics.John R GilesDerek A T CummingsBryan T GrenfellAndrew J TatemElisabeth Zu Erbach-SchoenbergCje MetcalfAmy WesolowskiPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleBiology (General)QH301-705.5ENPLoS Computational Biology, Vol 17, Iss 8, p e1009127 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Biology (General) QH301-705.5
spellingShingle	Biology (General) QH301-705.5 John R Giles Derek A T Cummings Bryan T Grenfell Andrew J Tatem Elisabeth Zu Erbach-Schoenberg Cje Metcalf Amy Wesolowski Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread.
description	Human travel is one of the primary drivers of infectious disease spread. Models of travel are often used that assume the amount of travel to a specific destination decreases as cost of travel increases with higher travel volumes to more populated destinations. Trip duration, the length of time spent in a destination, can also impact travel patterns. We investigated the spatial patterns of travel conditioned on trip duration and find distinct differences between short and long duration trips. In short-trip duration travel networks, trips are skewed towards urban destinations, compared with long-trip duration networks where travel is more evenly spread among locations. Using gravity models to inform connectivity patterns in simulations of disease transmission, we show that pathogens with shorter generation times exhibit initial patterns of spatial propagation that are more predictable among urban locations. Further, pathogens with a longer generation time have more diffusive patterns of spatial spread reflecting more unpredictable disease dynamics.
format	article
author	John R Giles Derek A T Cummings Bryan T Grenfell Andrew J Tatem Elisabeth Zu Erbach-Schoenberg Cje Metcalf Amy Wesolowski
author_facet	John R Giles Derek A T Cummings Bryan T Grenfell Andrew J Tatem Elisabeth Zu Erbach-Schoenberg Cje Metcalf Amy Wesolowski
author_sort	John R Giles
title	Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread.
title_short	Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread.
title_full	Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread.
title_fullStr	Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread.
title_full_unstemmed	Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread.
title_sort	trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/bcb974793f1b4f99beefc62160a2da4f
work_keys_str_mv	AT johnrgiles tripdurationdrivesshiftintravelnetworkstructurewithimplicationsforthepredictabilityofspatialdiseasespread AT derekatcummings tripdurationdrivesshiftintravelnetworkstructurewithimplicationsforthepredictabilityofspatialdiseasespread AT bryantgrenfell tripdurationdrivesshiftintravelnetworkstructurewithimplicationsforthepredictabilityofspatialdiseasespread AT andrewjtatem tripdurationdrivesshiftintravelnetworkstructurewithimplicationsforthepredictabilityofspatialdiseasespread AT elisabethzuerbachschoenberg tripdurationdrivesshiftintravelnetworkstructurewithimplicationsforthepredictabilityofspatialdiseasespread AT cjemetcalf tripdurationdrivesshiftintravelnetworkstructurewithimplicationsforthepredictabilityofspatialdiseasespread AT amywesolowski tripdurationdrivesshiftintravelnetworkstructurewithimplicationsforthepredictabilityofspatialdiseasespread
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Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread.

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