Evaluation of the CMIP5 general circulation models for simulating the precipitation and temperature of the Koshi River Basin in Nepal

This study evaluates the performance of 12 different general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to simulate precipitation and temperature in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal. Four statistical performance indicators: correlation coefficient, normalise...

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Autores principales:	Pragya Pradhan, Sangam Shrestha, S. Mohana Sundaram, Salvatore G. P. Virdis
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	compromise programming climate change entropy method general circulation model (gcms) himalayan basins Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/bcb98db1c7384d8f96c2585284d1b14f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:bcb98db1c7384d8f96c2585284d1b14f2021-11-09T23:59:55ZEvaluation of the CMIP5 general circulation models for simulating the precipitation and temperature of the Koshi River Basin in Nepal2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2021.124https://doaj.org/article/bcb98db1c7384d8f96c2585284d1b14f2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/7/3282https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354This study evaluates the performance of 12 different general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to simulate precipitation and temperature in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal. Four statistical performance indicators: correlation coefficient, normalised root-mean-square deviation (NMRSD), absolute NMRSD, and average absolute relative deviation are considered to evaluate the GCMs using historical observations. Seven different climate indices: consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, cold spell duration index, warm spell duration index, frost days, very wet days, and simple daily intensity index are considered to identify the most suitable models for the basin and future climate impact assessment studies. Weights for each performance indicator are determined using the entropy method, with compromise programming applied to rank the GCMs based on the Euclidian distant technique. The results suggest that CanESM2 and CSIRO-MK3.6.0 are the most suitable for predicting extreme precipitation events, and BCC-CSM 1.1, CanESM2, NorESM1-M, and CNRM-CM5 for extreme temperature events in Himalayan river basins. Overall, IPSL-CM5A-MR, CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, BCC-CSM 1.1, NorESM1-M, and CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 are deemed suitable models for predicting precipitation and temperature in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal. HIGHLIGHTS The performance of general circulation models to simulate precipitation and temperature in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal was evaluated.; IPSL-CM5A-MR, CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, BCC-CSM 1.1, and CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 are suitable models for predicting precipitation and temperature.; CNRM-CM5, BCC-CSM 1.1, and CSIRO-MK3.6.0 are the most suitable for predicting extreme precipitation events.; BCC-CSM 1.1, CanESM2, NorESM1-M, and MPI-ESM-LR are suitable for extreme temperature events.;Pragya PradhanSangam ShresthaS. Mohana SundaramSalvatore G. P. VirdisIWA Publishingarticlecompromise programmingclimate changeentropy methodgeneral circulation model (gcms)himalayan basinsEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 7, Pp 3282-3296 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	compromise programming climate change entropy method general circulation model (gcms) himalayan basins Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	compromise programming climate change entropy method general circulation model (gcms) himalayan basins Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Pragya Pradhan Sangam Shrestha S. Mohana Sundaram Salvatore G. P. Virdis Evaluation of the CMIP5 general circulation models for simulating the precipitation and temperature of the Koshi River Basin in Nepal
description	This study evaluates the performance of 12 different general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to simulate precipitation and temperature in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal. Four statistical performance indicators: correlation coefficient, normalised root-mean-square deviation (NMRSD), absolute NMRSD, and average absolute relative deviation are considered to evaluate the GCMs using historical observations. Seven different climate indices: consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, cold spell duration index, warm spell duration index, frost days, very wet days, and simple daily intensity index are considered to identify the most suitable models for the basin and future climate impact assessment studies. Weights for each performance indicator are determined using the entropy method, with compromise programming applied to rank the GCMs based on the Euclidian distant technique. The results suggest that CanESM2 and CSIRO-MK3.6.0 are the most suitable for predicting extreme precipitation events, and BCC-CSM 1.1, CanESM2, NorESM1-M, and CNRM-CM5 for extreme temperature events in Himalayan river basins. Overall, IPSL-CM5A-MR, CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, BCC-CSM 1.1, NorESM1-M, and CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 are deemed suitable models for predicting precipitation and temperature in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal. HIGHLIGHTS The performance of general circulation models to simulate precipitation and temperature in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal was evaluated.; IPSL-CM5A-MR, CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, BCC-CSM 1.1, and CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 are suitable models for predicting precipitation and temperature.; CNRM-CM5, BCC-CSM 1.1, and CSIRO-MK3.6.0 are the most suitable for predicting extreme precipitation events.; BCC-CSM 1.1, CanESM2, NorESM1-M, and MPI-ESM-LR are suitable for extreme temperature events.;
format	article
author	Pragya Pradhan Sangam Shrestha S. Mohana Sundaram Salvatore G. P. Virdis
author_facet	Pragya Pradhan Sangam Shrestha S. Mohana Sundaram Salvatore G. P. Virdis
author_sort	Pragya Pradhan
title	Evaluation of the CMIP5 general circulation models for simulating the precipitation and temperature of the Koshi River Basin in Nepal
title_short	Evaluation of the CMIP5 general circulation models for simulating the precipitation and temperature of the Koshi River Basin in Nepal
title_full	Evaluation of the CMIP5 general circulation models for simulating the precipitation and temperature of the Koshi River Basin in Nepal
title_fullStr	Evaluation of the CMIP5 general circulation models for simulating the precipitation and temperature of the Koshi River Basin in Nepal
title_full_unstemmed	Evaluation of the CMIP5 general circulation models for simulating the precipitation and temperature of the Koshi River Basin in Nepal
title_sort	evaluation of the cmip5 general circulation models for simulating the precipitation and temperature of the koshi river basin in nepal
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/bcb98db1c7384d8f96c2585284d1b14f
work_keys_str_mv	AT pragyapradhan evaluationofthecmip5generalcirculationmodelsforsimulatingtheprecipitationandtemperatureofthekoshiriverbasininnepal AT sangamshrestha evaluationofthecmip5generalcirculationmodelsforsimulatingtheprecipitationandtemperatureofthekoshiriverbasininnepal AT smohanasundaram evaluationofthecmip5generalcirculationmodelsforsimulatingtheprecipitationandtemperatureofthekoshiriverbasininnepal AT salvatoregpvirdis evaluationofthecmip5generalcirculationmodelsforsimulatingtheprecipitationandtemperatureofthekoshiriverbasininnepal
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Evaluation of the CMIP5 general circulation models for simulating the precipitation and temperature of the Koshi River Basin in Nepal

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