Interrelationship between daily COVID-19 cases and average temperature as well as relative humidity in Germany

Abstract COVID-19 pandemic continues to obstruct social lives and the world economy other than questioning the healthcare capacity of many countries. Weather components recently came to notice as the northern hemisphere was hit by escalated incidence in winter. This study investigated the associatio...

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Autores principales:	Naleen Chaminda Ganegoda, Karunia Putra Wijaya, Miracle Amadi, K. K. W. Hasitha Erandi, Dipo Aldila
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/bcbaade34f1b4074aa9798b8180dce6c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:bcbaade34f1b4074aa9798b8180dce6c2021-12-02T16:53:19ZInterrelationship between daily COVID-19 cases and average temperature as well as relative humidity in Germany10.1038/s41598-021-90873-52045-2322https://doaj.org/article/bcbaade34f1b4074aa9798b8180dce6c2021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-90873-5https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract COVID-19 pandemic continues to obstruct social lives and the world economy other than questioning the healthcare capacity of many countries. Weather components recently came to notice as the northern hemisphere was hit by escalated incidence in winter. This study investigated the association between COVID-19 cases and two components, average temperature and relative humidity, in the 16 states of Germany. Three main approaches were carried out in this study, namely temporal correlation, spatial auto-correlation, and clustering-integrated panel regression. It is claimed that the daily COVID-19 cases correlate negatively with the average temperature and positively with the average relative humidity. To extract the spatial auto-correlation, both global Moran’s $${\mathscr {I}}$$ I and global Geary’s $${\mathscr {C}}$$ C were used whereby no significant difference in the results was observed. It is evident that randomness overwhelms the spatial pattern in all the states for most of the observations, except in recent observations where either local clusters or dispersion occurred. This is further supported by Moran’s scatter plot, where states’ dynamics to and fro cold and hot spots are identified, rendering a traveling-related early warning system. A random-effects model was used in the sense of case-weather regression including incidence clustering. Our task is to perceive which ranges of the incidence that are well predicted by the existing weather components rather than seeing which ranges of the weather components predicting the incidence. The proposed clustering-integrated model associated with optimal barriers articulates the data well whereby weather components outperform lag incidence cases in the prediction. Practical implications based on marginal effects follow posterior to model diagnostics.Naleen Chaminda GanegodaKarunia Putra WijayaMiracle AmadiK. K. W. Hasitha ErandiDipo AldilaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-16 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Naleen Chaminda Ganegoda Karunia Putra Wijaya Miracle Amadi K. K. W. Hasitha Erandi Dipo Aldila Interrelationship between daily COVID-19 cases and average temperature as well as relative humidity in Germany
description	Abstract COVID-19 pandemic continues to obstruct social lives and the world economy other than questioning the healthcare capacity of many countries. Weather components recently came to notice as the northern hemisphere was hit by escalated incidence in winter. This study investigated the association between COVID-19 cases and two components, average temperature and relative humidity, in the 16 states of Germany. Three main approaches were carried out in this study, namely temporal correlation, spatial auto-correlation, and clustering-integrated panel regression. It is claimed that the daily COVID-19 cases correlate negatively with the average temperature and positively with the average relative humidity. To extract the spatial auto-correlation, both global Moran’s $${\mathscr {I}}$$ I and global Geary’s $${\mathscr {C}}$$ C were used whereby no significant difference in the results was observed. It is evident that randomness overwhelms the spatial pattern in all the states for most of the observations, except in recent observations where either local clusters or dispersion occurred. This is further supported by Moran’s scatter plot, where states’ dynamics to and fro cold and hot spots are identified, rendering a traveling-related early warning system. A random-effects model was used in the sense of case-weather regression including incidence clustering. Our task is to perceive which ranges of the incidence that are well predicted by the existing weather components rather than seeing which ranges of the weather components predicting the incidence. The proposed clustering-integrated model associated with optimal barriers articulates the data well whereby weather components outperform lag incidence cases in the prediction. Practical implications based on marginal effects follow posterior to model diagnostics.
format	article
author	Naleen Chaminda Ganegoda Karunia Putra Wijaya Miracle Amadi K. K. W. Hasitha Erandi Dipo Aldila
author_facet	Naleen Chaminda Ganegoda Karunia Putra Wijaya Miracle Amadi K. K. W. Hasitha Erandi Dipo Aldila
author_sort	Naleen Chaminda Ganegoda
title	Interrelationship between daily COVID-19 cases and average temperature as well as relative humidity in Germany
title_short	Interrelationship between daily COVID-19 cases and average temperature as well as relative humidity in Germany
title_full	Interrelationship between daily COVID-19 cases and average temperature as well as relative humidity in Germany
title_fullStr	Interrelationship between daily COVID-19 cases and average temperature as well as relative humidity in Germany
title_full_unstemmed	Interrelationship between daily COVID-19 cases and average temperature as well as relative humidity in Germany
title_sort	interrelationship between daily covid-19 cases and average temperature as well as relative humidity in germany
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/bcbaade34f1b4074aa9798b8180dce6c
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Interrelationship between daily COVID-19 cases and average temperature as well as relative humidity in Germany

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