Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with gastric cardia cancer

Abstract Our goal was to develop a prognostic nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with gastric cardia cancer (GCC). Patients diagnosed with GCC from 2004 to 2015 were screened from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database. A...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Xiuquan Shi, Lijun Xu, Bingwei Ma, Siben Wang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2020
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/bcf9e23389354f27b4bf4296666bf050
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:bcf9e23389354f27b4bf4296666bf050
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:bcf9e23389354f27b4bf4296666bf0502021-12-02T19:02:37ZDevelopment and validation of a nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with gastric cardia cancer10.1038/s41598-020-71146-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/bcf9e23389354f27b4bf4296666bf0502020-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-71146-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Our goal was to develop a prognostic nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with gastric cardia cancer (GCC). Patients diagnosed with GCC from 2004 to 2015 were screened from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database. A nomogram was developed based on the variables associated with OS and CSS using multivariate Cox analysis regression models, which predicted 3- and 5-year OS and CSS. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the consistency index (C-index), calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA), and the nomogram was calibrated for 3- and 5-year OS and CSS. A total of 7,332 GCC patients were identified and randomized into a training cohort (5,231, 70%) and a validation cohort (2,200, 30%). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that marital status, race, SEER stage, grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, tumor size, and surgery were independent risk factors for OS and CSS in GCC patients. Based on the multivariate Cox regression results, we constructed prognostic nomograms of OS and CSS. In the training cohort, the C-index for the OS nomogram was 0.714 (95% CI = 0.705–0.723), and the C-index for the CSS nomogram was 0.759 (95% CI = 0.746–0.772). In the validation cohort, the C-index for the OS nomogram was 0.734 (95% CI = 0.721–0.747), while the C-index for the CSS nomogram was 0.780 (95% CI = 0.759–0.801). Our nomogram has better prediction than the nomogram based on TNM stage. In addition, in the training and external validation cohorts, the calibration curves of the nomogram showed good consistency between the predicted and actual 3- and 5-year OS and CSS rates. The nomogram can effectively predict OS and CSS in GCC patients, which may help clinicians personalize prognostic assessments and clinical decisions.Xiuquan ShiLijun XuBingwei MaSiben WangNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Xiuquan Shi Lijun Xu Bingwei Ma Siben Wang Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with gastric cardia cancer
description	Abstract Our goal was to develop a prognostic nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with gastric cardia cancer (GCC). Patients diagnosed with GCC from 2004 to 2015 were screened from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database. A nomogram was developed based on the variables associated with OS and CSS using multivariate Cox analysis regression models, which predicted 3- and 5-year OS and CSS. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the consistency index (C-index), calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA), and the nomogram was calibrated for 3- and 5-year OS and CSS. A total of 7,332 GCC patients were identified and randomized into a training cohort (5,231, 70%) and a validation cohort (2,200, 30%). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that marital status, race, SEER stage, grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, tumor size, and surgery were independent risk factors for OS and CSS in GCC patients. Based on the multivariate Cox regression results, we constructed prognostic nomograms of OS and CSS. In the training cohort, the C-index for the OS nomogram was 0.714 (95% CI = 0.705–0.723), and the C-index for the CSS nomogram was 0.759 (95% CI = 0.746–0.772). In the validation cohort, the C-index for the OS nomogram was 0.734 (95% CI = 0.721–0.747), while the C-index for the CSS nomogram was 0.780 (95% CI = 0.759–0.801). Our nomogram has better prediction than the nomogram based on TNM stage. In addition, in the training and external validation cohorts, the calibration curves of the nomogram showed good consistency between the predicted and actual 3- and 5-year OS and CSS rates. The nomogram can effectively predict OS and CSS in GCC patients, which may help clinicians personalize prognostic assessments and clinical decisions.
format	article
author	Xiuquan Shi Lijun Xu Bingwei Ma Siben Wang
author_facet	Xiuquan Shi Lijun Xu Bingwei Ma Siben Wang
author_sort	Xiuquan Shi
title	Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with gastric cardia cancer
title_short	Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with gastric cardia cancer
title_full	Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with gastric cardia cancer
title_fullStr	Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with gastric cardia cancer
title_full_unstemmed	Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with gastric cardia cancer
title_sort	development and validation of a nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with gastric cardia cancer
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/bcf9e23389354f27b4bf4296666bf050
work_keys_str_mv	AT xiuquanshi developmentandvalidationofanomogramtopredicttheprognosisofpatientswithgastriccardiacancer AT lijunxu developmentandvalidationofanomogramtopredicttheprognosisofpatientswithgastriccardiacancer AT bingweima developmentandvalidationofanomogramtopredicttheprognosisofpatientswithgastriccardiacancer AT sibenwang developmentandvalidationofanomogramtopredicttheprognosisofpatientswithgastriccardiacancer
_version_	1718377233868914688

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with gastric cardia cancer

Ejemplares similares