Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study

Abstract Background To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norov...

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Autores principales:	Kathleen M. O’Reilly, Frank Sandman, David Allen, Christopher I. Jarvis, Amy Gimma, Amy Douglas, Lesley Larkin, Kerry L. M. Wong, Marc Baguelin, Ralph S. Baric, Lisa C. Lindesmith, Richard A. Goldstein, Judith Breuer, W. John Edmunds
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	BMC 2021
Materias:	Norovirus Transmission Seasonality Mathematical modelling Surveillance COVID-19 Medicine R
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/bd6ce5d257574b4782ddd1cf2e839d70
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:bd6ce5d257574b4782ddd1cf2e839d702021-11-14T12:17:07ZPredicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study10.1186/s12916-021-02153-81741-7015https://doaj.org/article/bd6ce5d257574b4782ddd1cf2e839d702021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-02153-8https://doaj.org/toc/1741-7015Abstract Background To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. Methods Here we use a mathematical model of norovirus fitted to community incidence data in England to project forward expected incidence based on contact surveys that have been collected throughout 2020–2021. Results We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year. The age-specific incidence is similar across all ages. Conclusions Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced.Kathleen M. O’ReillyFrank SandmanDavid AllenChristopher I. JarvisAmy GimmaAmy DouglasLesley LarkinKerry L. M. WongMarc BaguelinRalph S. BaricLisa C. LindesmithRichard A. GoldsteinJudith BreuerW. John EdmundsBMCarticleNorovirusTransmissionSeasonalityMathematical modellingSurveillanceCOVID-19MedicineRENBMC Medicine, Vol 19, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Norovirus Transmission Seasonality Mathematical modelling Surveillance COVID-19 Medicine R
spellingShingle	Norovirus Transmission Seasonality Mathematical modelling Surveillance COVID-19 Medicine R Kathleen M. O’Reilly Frank Sandman David Allen Christopher I. Jarvis Amy Gimma Amy Douglas Lesley Larkin Kerry L. M. Wong Marc Baguelin Ralph S. Baric Lisa C. Lindesmith Richard A. Goldstein Judith Breuer W. John Edmunds Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study
description	Abstract Background To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. Methods Here we use a mathematical model of norovirus fitted to community incidence data in England to project forward expected incidence based on contact surveys that have been collected throughout 2020–2021. Results We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year. The age-specific incidence is similar across all ages. Conclusions Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced.
format	article
author	Kathleen M. O’Reilly Frank Sandman David Allen Christopher I. Jarvis Amy Gimma Amy Douglas Lesley Larkin Kerry L. M. Wong Marc Baguelin Ralph S. Baric Lisa C. Lindesmith Richard A. Goldstein Judith Breuer W. John Edmunds
author_facet	Kathleen M. O’Reilly Frank Sandman David Allen Christopher I. Jarvis Amy Gimma Amy Douglas Lesley Larkin Kerry L. M. Wong Marc Baguelin Ralph S. Baric Lisa C. Lindesmith Richard A. Goldstein Judith Breuer W. John Edmunds
author_sort	Kathleen M. O’Reilly
title	Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study
title_short	Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study
title_full	Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study
title_fullStr	Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study
title_full_unstemmed	Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study
title_sort	predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with covid-19 restrictions in england: a mathematical modeling study
publisher	BMC
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/bd6ce5d257574b4782ddd1cf2e839d70
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Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study

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