The Zoltar forecast archive, a tool to standardize and store interdisciplinary prediction research
Abstract Forecasting has emerged as an important component of informed, data-driven decision-making in a wide array of fields. We introduce a new data model for probabilistic predictions that encompasses a wide range of forecasting settings. This framework clearly defines the constituent parts of a...
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| Autores principales: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | article |
| Lenguaje: | EN |
| Publicado: |
Nature Portfolio
2021
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://doaj.org/article/be7aeb3e86c243b7b92bcddfd06f1baa |
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| Sumario: | Abstract Forecasting has emerged as an important component of informed, data-driven decision-making in a wide array of fields. We introduce a new data model for probabilistic predictions that encompasses a wide range of forecasting settings. This framework clearly defines the constituent parts of a probabilistic forecast and proposes one approach for representing these data elements. The data model is implemented in Zoltar, a new software application that stores forecasts using the data model and provides standardized API access to the data. In one real-time case study, an instance of the Zoltar web application was used to store, provide access to, and evaluate real-time forecast data on the order of 108 rows, provided by over 40 international research teams from academia and industry making forecasts of the COVID-19 outbreak in the US. Tools and data infrastructure for probabilistic forecasts, such as those introduced here, will play an increasingly important role in ensuring that future forecasting research adheres to a strict set of rigorous and reproducible standards. |
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