Characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe

<p>Extratropical cyclones play a major role in the atmospheric circulation and weather variability and can cause widespread damage and destruction. Extratropical cyclones in northern Europe, which is located at the end of the North Atlantic storm track, have been less studied than extratropica...

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Autores principales:	T. K. Laurila, H. Gregow, J. Cornér, V. A. Sinclair
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Copernicus Publications 2021
Materias:	Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/be87ac4c299448ff8438849208a10f28
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:be87ac4c299448ff8438849208a10f282021-11-23T11:55:41ZCharacteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe10.5194/wcd-2-1111-20212698-4016https://doaj.org/article/be87ac4c299448ff8438849208a10f282021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/2/1111/2021/wcd-2-1111-2021.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/2698-4016<p>Extratropical cyclones play a major role in the atmospheric circulation and weather variability and can cause widespread damage and destruction. Extratropical cyclones in northern Europe, which is located at the end of the North Atlantic storm track, have been less studied than extratropical cyclones elsewhere. Our study investigates extratropical cyclones and windstorms in northern Europe (which in this study covers Norway; Sweden; Finland; Estonia; and parts of the Baltic, Norwegian, and Barents seas) by analysing their characteristics, spatial and temporal evolution, and precursors. We examine cold and warm seasons separately to determine seasonal differences. We track all extratropical cyclones in northern Europe, create cyclone composites, and use an ensemble sensitivity method to analyse the precursors. The ensemble sensitivity analysis is a novel method in cyclone studies where linear regression is used to statistically identify what variables possibly influence the subsequent evolution of extratropical cyclones. We investigate windstorm precursors for both the minimum mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and for the maximum 10 m wind gusts. The annual number of extratropical cyclones and windstorms has a large inter-annual variability and no significant linear trends during 1980–2019. Windstorms originate and occur over the Barents and Norwegian seas, whereas weaker extratropical cyclones originate and occur over land areas in northern Europe. During the windstorm evolution, the maximum wind gusts move from the warm sector to behind the cold front following the strongest pressure gradient. Windstorms in both seasons are located on the poleward side of the jet stream. The maximum wind gusts occur nearly at the same time as the minimum MSLP occurs. The cold-season windstorms have higher sensitivities and thus are potentially better predictable than warm-season windstorms, and the minimum MSLP has higher sensitivities than the maximum wind gusts. Of the four examined precursors, both the minimum MSLP and the maximum wind gusts are the most sensitive to the 850 hPa potential temperature anomaly, i.e. the temperature gradient. Hence, this parameter is likely important when predicting windstorms in northern Europe.</p>T. K. LaurilaH. GregowJ. CornérV. A. SinclairCopernicus PublicationsarticleMeteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENWeather and Climate Dynamics, Vol 2, Pp 1111-1130 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 T. K. Laurila H. Gregow J. Cornér V. A. Sinclair Characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe
description	<p>Extratropical cyclones play a major role in the atmospheric circulation and weather variability and can cause widespread damage and destruction. Extratropical cyclones in northern Europe, which is located at the end of the North Atlantic storm track, have been less studied than extratropical cyclones elsewhere. Our study investigates extratropical cyclones and windstorms in northern Europe (which in this study covers Norway; Sweden; Finland; Estonia; and parts of the Baltic, Norwegian, and Barents seas) by analysing their characteristics, spatial and temporal evolution, and precursors. We examine cold and warm seasons separately to determine seasonal differences. We track all extratropical cyclones in northern Europe, create cyclone composites, and use an ensemble sensitivity method to analyse the precursors. The ensemble sensitivity analysis is a novel method in cyclone studies where linear regression is used to statistically identify what variables possibly influence the subsequent evolution of extratropical cyclones. We investigate windstorm precursors for both the minimum mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and for the maximum 10 m wind gusts. The annual number of extratropical cyclones and windstorms has a large inter-annual variability and no significant linear trends during 1980–2019. Windstorms originate and occur over the Barents and Norwegian seas, whereas weaker extratropical cyclones originate and occur over land areas in northern Europe. During the windstorm evolution, the maximum wind gusts move from the warm sector to behind the cold front following the strongest pressure gradient. Windstorms in both seasons are located on the poleward side of the jet stream. The maximum wind gusts occur nearly at the same time as the minimum MSLP occurs. The cold-season windstorms have higher sensitivities and thus are potentially better predictable than warm-season windstorms, and the minimum MSLP has higher sensitivities than the maximum wind gusts. Of the four examined precursors, both the minimum MSLP and the maximum wind gusts are the most sensitive to the 850 hPa potential temperature anomaly, i.e. the temperature gradient. Hence, this parameter is likely important when predicting windstorms in northern Europe.</p>
format	article
author	T. K. Laurila H. Gregow J. Cornér V. A. Sinclair
author_facet	T. K. Laurila H. Gregow J. Cornér V. A. Sinclair
author_sort	T. K. Laurila
title	Characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe
title_short	Characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe
title_full	Characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe
title_fullStr	Characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe
title_full_unstemmed	Characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe
title_sort	characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern europe
publisher	Copernicus Publications
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/be87ac4c299448ff8438849208a10f28
work_keys_str_mv	AT tklaurila characteristicsofextratropicalcyclonesandprecursorstowindstormsinnortherneurope AT hgregow characteristicsofextratropicalcyclonesandprecursorstowindstormsinnortherneurope AT jcorner characteristicsofextratropicalcyclonesandprecursorstowindstormsinnortherneurope AT vasinclair characteristicsofextratropicalcyclonesandprecursorstowindstormsinnortherneurope
_version_	1718416789471232000

Characteristics of extratropical cyclones and precursors to windstorms in northern Europe

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