Addressing risks to biodiversity arising from a changing climate: The need for ecosystem restoration in the Tana River Basin, Kenya.

Climate change is projected to have significant effects on the distribution of species globally, but research into the implications in parts of Africa has been limited. Using species distribution modelling, this study models climate change-related risks to the terrestrial biodiversity (birds, mammal...

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Autores principales:	Rhosanna L M Jenkins, Rachel F Warren, Jeff T Price
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/be9a8105ac1742e391039d4af681afe9
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:be9a8105ac1742e391039d4af681afe92021-12-02T20:06:41ZAddressing risks to biodiversity arising from a changing climate: The need for ecosystem restoration in the Tana River Basin, Kenya.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0254879https://doaj.org/article/be9a8105ac1742e391039d4af681afe92021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0254879https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Climate change is projected to have significant effects on the distribution of species globally, but research into the implications in parts of Africa has been limited. Using species distribution modelling, this study models climate change-related risks to the terrestrial biodiversity (birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians and plants) of Kenya's economically-important and ecologically diverse Tana River Basin. Large reductions in species richness are projected with just 2°C warming (relative to preindustrial levels) with birds and plants seeing the greatest impact. Potential climate refugia for biodiversity are identified within the basin, but often overlap with areas already converted to agriculture or set aside for agricultural expansion, and the majority are outside protected areas. Similarly, some protected areas contain no projected refugia at higher levels of global warming, showing they may be insufficient to protect the basin's biodiversity as climate changes. However, risks to biodiversity are much smaller if the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to 'well below 2°C' warming, rather than 2°C only, is met. The potential for refugia for plants and animals decreases strongly with warming. For example, 82% of the basin remaining climatically suitable for at least 75% of the plants currently present at 1.5°C warming, as compared with 23% at 2°C and 3% at 4.5°C. This research provides the first assessment of the combined effects of development plans and climate change on biodiversity of the Tana River Basin, including identifying potential areas for restoration, and contributes to a greater understanding of biodiversity protection and adaptation options in Kenya.Rhosanna L M JenkinsRachel F WarrenJeff T PricePublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 7, p e0254879 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Rhosanna L M Jenkins Rachel F Warren Jeff T Price Addressing risks to biodiversity arising from a changing climate: The need for ecosystem restoration in the Tana River Basin, Kenya.
description	Climate change is projected to have significant effects on the distribution of species globally, but research into the implications in parts of Africa has been limited. Using species distribution modelling, this study models climate change-related risks to the terrestrial biodiversity (birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians and plants) of Kenya's economically-important and ecologically diverse Tana River Basin. Large reductions in species richness are projected with just 2°C warming (relative to preindustrial levels) with birds and plants seeing the greatest impact. Potential climate refugia for biodiversity are identified within the basin, but often overlap with areas already converted to agriculture or set aside for agricultural expansion, and the majority are outside protected areas. Similarly, some protected areas contain no projected refugia at higher levels of global warming, showing they may be insufficient to protect the basin's biodiversity as climate changes. However, risks to biodiversity are much smaller if the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to 'well below 2°C' warming, rather than 2°C only, is met. The potential for refugia for plants and animals decreases strongly with warming. For example, 82% of the basin remaining climatically suitable for at least 75% of the plants currently present at 1.5°C warming, as compared with 23% at 2°C and 3% at 4.5°C. This research provides the first assessment of the combined effects of development plans and climate change on biodiversity of the Tana River Basin, including identifying potential areas for restoration, and contributes to a greater understanding of biodiversity protection and adaptation options in Kenya.
format	article
author	Rhosanna L M Jenkins Rachel F Warren Jeff T Price
author_facet	Rhosanna L M Jenkins Rachel F Warren Jeff T Price
author_sort	Rhosanna L M Jenkins
title	Addressing risks to biodiversity arising from a changing climate: The need for ecosystem restoration in the Tana River Basin, Kenya.
title_short	Addressing risks to biodiversity arising from a changing climate: The need for ecosystem restoration in the Tana River Basin, Kenya.
title_full	Addressing risks to biodiversity arising from a changing climate: The need for ecosystem restoration in the Tana River Basin, Kenya.
title_fullStr	Addressing risks to biodiversity arising from a changing climate: The need for ecosystem restoration in the Tana River Basin, Kenya.
title_full_unstemmed	Addressing risks to biodiversity arising from a changing climate: The need for ecosystem restoration in the Tana River Basin, Kenya.
title_sort	addressing risks to biodiversity arising from a changing climate: the need for ecosystem restoration in the tana river basin, kenya.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/be9a8105ac1742e391039d4af681afe9
work_keys_str_mv	AT rhosannalmjenkins addressingriskstobiodiversityarisingfromachangingclimatetheneedforecosystemrestorationinthetanariverbasinkenya AT rachelfwarren addressingriskstobiodiversityarisingfromachangingclimatetheneedforecosystemrestorationinthetanariverbasinkenya AT jefftprice addressingriskstobiodiversityarisingfromachangingclimatetheneedforecosystemrestorationinthetanariverbasinkenya
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Addressing risks to biodiversity arising from a changing climate: The need for ecosystem restoration in the Tana River Basin, Kenya.

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