On the predictability of infectious disease outbreaks

Forecasting of infectious disease outbreaks can inform appropriate intervention measures, but whether fundamental limits to accurate prediction exist is unclear. Here, the authors use permutation entropy as a model independent measure of predictability to study limitations across a broad set of infe...

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Autores principales: Samuel V. Scarpino, Giovanni Petri
Formato: article
Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: Nature Portfolio 2019
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Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/bedfac389c9d4a6a84ca470ab8dece0a
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Sumario:Forecasting of infectious disease outbreaks can inform appropriate intervention measures, but whether fundamental limits to accurate prediction exist is unclear. Here, the authors use permutation entropy as a model independent measure of predictability to study limitations across a broad set of infectious diseases.