Relationships of climate, human activity, and fire history to spatiotemporal variation in annual fire probability across California

In the face of recent wildfires across the Western United States, it is essential that we understand both the dynamics that drive the spatial distribution of wildfire, and the major obstacles to modeling the probability of wildfire over space and time. However, it is well documented that the precise...

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Autores principales:	Isaac W. Park, Michael L. Mann, Lorraine E. Flint, Alan L. Flint, Max Moritz
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/bef37d13e1494bd4ab0ff4b202220b7d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:bef37d13e1494bd4ab0ff4b202220b7d2021-11-11T06:44:15ZRelationships of climate, human activity, and fire history to spatiotemporal variation in annual fire probability across California1932-6203https://doaj.org/article/bef37d13e1494bd4ab0ff4b202220b7d2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8565767/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203In the face of recent wildfires across the Western United States, it is essential that we understand both the dynamics that drive the spatial distribution of wildfire, and the major obstacles to modeling the probability of wildfire over space and time. However, it is well documented that the precise relationships of local vegetation, climate, and ignitions, and how they influence fire dynamics, may vary over space and among local climate, vegetation, and land use regimes. This raises questions not only as to the nature of the potentially nonlinear relationships between local conditions and the fire, but also the possibility that the scale at which such models are developed may be critical to their predictive power and to the apparent relationship of local conditions to wildfire. In this study we demonstrate that both local climate–through limitations posed by fuel dryness (CWD) and availability (AET)–and human activity–through housing density, roads, electrical infrastructure, and agriculture, play important roles in determining the annual probabilities of fire throughout California. We also document the importance of previous burn events as potential barriers to fire in some environments, until enough time has passed for vegetation to regenerate sufficiently to sustain subsequent wildfires. We also demonstrate that long-term and short-term climate variations exhibit different effects on annual fire probability, with short-term climate variations primarily impacting fire probability during periods of extreme climate anomaly. Further, we show that, when using nonlinear modeling techniques, broad-scale fire probability models can outperform localized models at predicting annual fire probability. Finally, this study represents a powerful tool for mapping local fire probability across the state of California under a variety of historical climate regimes, which is essential to avoided emissions modeling, carbon accounting, and hazard severity mapping for the application of fire-resistant building codes across the state of California.Isaac W. ParkMichael L. MannLorraine E. FlintAlan L. FlintMax MoritzPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Isaac W. Park Michael L. Mann Lorraine E. Flint Alan L. Flint Max Moritz Relationships of climate, human activity, and fire history to spatiotemporal variation in annual fire probability across California
description	In the face of recent wildfires across the Western United States, it is essential that we understand both the dynamics that drive the spatial distribution of wildfire, and the major obstacles to modeling the probability of wildfire over space and time. However, it is well documented that the precise relationships of local vegetation, climate, and ignitions, and how they influence fire dynamics, may vary over space and among local climate, vegetation, and land use regimes. This raises questions not only as to the nature of the potentially nonlinear relationships between local conditions and the fire, but also the possibility that the scale at which such models are developed may be critical to their predictive power and to the apparent relationship of local conditions to wildfire. In this study we demonstrate that both local climate–through limitations posed by fuel dryness (CWD) and availability (AET)–and human activity–through housing density, roads, electrical infrastructure, and agriculture, play important roles in determining the annual probabilities of fire throughout California. We also document the importance of previous burn events as potential barriers to fire in some environments, until enough time has passed for vegetation to regenerate sufficiently to sustain subsequent wildfires. We also demonstrate that long-term and short-term climate variations exhibit different effects on annual fire probability, with short-term climate variations primarily impacting fire probability during periods of extreme climate anomaly. Further, we show that, when using nonlinear modeling techniques, broad-scale fire probability models can outperform localized models at predicting annual fire probability. Finally, this study represents a powerful tool for mapping local fire probability across the state of California under a variety of historical climate regimes, which is essential to avoided emissions modeling, carbon accounting, and hazard severity mapping for the application of fire-resistant building codes across the state of California.
format	article
author	Isaac W. Park Michael L. Mann Lorraine E. Flint Alan L. Flint Max Moritz
author_facet	Isaac W. Park Michael L. Mann Lorraine E. Flint Alan L. Flint Max Moritz
author_sort	Isaac W. Park
title	Relationships of climate, human activity, and fire history to spatiotemporal variation in annual fire probability across California
title_short	Relationships of climate, human activity, and fire history to spatiotemporal variation in annual fire probability across California
title_full	Relationships of climate, human activity, and fire history to spatiotemporal variation in annual fire probability across California
title_fullStr	Relationships of climate, human activity, and fire history to spatiotemporal variation in annual fire probability across California
title_full_unstemmed	Relationships of climate, human activity, and fire history to spatiotemporal variation in annual fire probability across California
title_sort	relationships of climate, human activity, and fire history to spatiotemporal variation in annual fire probability across california
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/bef37d13e1494bd4ab0ff4b202220b7d
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Relationships of climate, human activity, and fire history to spatiotemporal variation in annual fire probability across California

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