Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation

The trade agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur countries will increase deforestation in the Mercosur countries and Brazil, in particular, if ratified by member countries. We use a computable general equilibrium model to analyze how trade, land use, and agricultural production will c...

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Autores principales:	Eugenio Arima, Paulo Barreto, Farzad Taheripour, Angel Aguiar
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	commodities land change international trade supply chain Agriculture S
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/c0fbb24cdc5e493fa93e9d4d95e95a83
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:c0fbb24cdc5e493fa93e9d4d95e95a83
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:c0fbb24cdc5e493fa93e9d4d95e95a832021-11-25T18:09:55ZDynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation10.3390/land101112432073-445Xhttps://doaj.org/article/c0fbb24cdc5e493fa93e9d4d95e95a832021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/11/1243https://doaj.org/toc/2073-445XThe trade agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur countries will increase deforestation in the Mercosur countries and Brazil, in particular, if ratified by member countries. We use a computable general equilibrium model to analyze how trade, land use, and agricultural production will change as a result of the agreement. We then use a statistical model to spatially allocate the predicted deforestation within the Brazilian Amazon. The models estimate that the agreement will cause additional deforestation in Brazil ranging from 56 to 173 thousand ha to accommodate increases in cropland area, depending on the level of governance, use of double-cropping techniques, and trade elasticity parameters. Most additional deforestation in Amazonia would be clustered near current deforestation hotspot areas. Some hotspots threaten the integrity of Indigenous lands and conservation units. Although a low deforestation scenario with gains in welfare is theoretically possible when high governance and multiple-cropping systems are in place, political challenges remain and cast doubt on Brazil’s ability to rein on illegal deforestation.Eugenio ArimaPaulo BarretoFarzad TaheripourAngel AguiarMDPI AGarticlecommoditiesland changeinternational tradesupply chainAgricultureSENLand, Vol 10, Iss 1243, p 1243 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	commodities land change international trade supply chain Agriculture S
spellingShingle	commodities land change international trade supply chain Agriculture S Eugenio Arima Paulo Barreto Farzad Taheripour Angel Aguiar Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation
description	The trade agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur countries will increase deforestation in the Mercosur countries and Brazil, in particular, if ratified by member countries. We use a computable general equilibrium model to analyze how trade, land use, and agricultural production will change as a result of the agreement. We then use a statistical model to spatially allocate the predicted deforestation within the Brazilian Amazon. The models estimate that the agreement will cause additional deforestation in Brazil ranging from 56 to 173 thousand ha to accommodate increases in cropland area, depending on the level of governance, use of double-cropping techniques, and trade elasticity parameters. Most additional deforestation in Amazonia would be clustered near current deforestation hotspot areas. Some hotspots threaten the integrity of Indigenous lands and conservation units. Although a low deforestation scenario with gains in welfare is theoretically possible when high governance and multiple-cropping systems are in place, political challenges remain and cast doubt on Brazil’s ability to rein on illegal deforestation.
format	article
author	Eugenio Arima Paulo Barreto Farzad Taheripour Angel Aguiar
author_facet	Eugenio Arima Paulo Barreto Farzad Taheripour Angel Aguiar
author_sort	Eugenio Arima
title	Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation
title_short	Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation
title_full	Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation
title_fullStr	Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation
title_full_unstemmed	Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation
title_sort	dynamic amazonia: the eu–mercosur trade agreement and deforestation
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/c0fbb24cdc5e493fa93e9d4d95e95a83
work_keys_str_mv	AT eugenioarima dynamicamazoniatheeumercosurtradeagreementanddeforestation AT paulobarreto dynamicamazoniatheeumercosurtradeagreementanddeforestation AT farzadtaheripour dynamicamazoniatheeumercosurtradeagreementanddeforestation AT angelaguiar dynamicamazoniatheeumercosurtradeagreementanddeforestation
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Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation

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