An interpretable machine learning model based on a quick pre-screening system enables accurate deterioration risk prediction for COVID-19
Abstract A high-performing interpretable model is proposed to predict the risk of deterioration in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. The model was developed using a cohort of 3028 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 and exhibiting common clinical symptoms that were internally verified (AUC...
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| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | article |
| Lenguaje: | EN |
| Publicado: |
Nature Portfolio
2021
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://doaj.org/article/c181bf448c074d5eb8ad5f7c833512ad |
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| Sumario: | Abstract A high-performing interpretable model is proposed to predict the risk of deterioration in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. The model was developed using a cohort of 3028 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 and exhibiting common clinical symptoms that were internally verified (AUC 0.8517, 95% CI 0.8433, 0.8601). A total of 15 high risk factors for deterioration and their approximate warning ranges were identified. This included prothrombin time (PT), prothrombin activity, lactate dehydrogenase, international normalized ratio, heart rate, body-mass index (BMI), D-dimer, creatine kinase, hematocrit, urine specific gravity, magnesium, globulin, activated partial thromboplastin time, lymphocyte count (L%), and platelet count. Four of these indicators (PT, heart rate, BMI, HCT) and comorbidities were selected for a streamlined combination of indicators to produce faster results. The resulting model showed good predictive performance (AUC 0.7941 95% CI 0.7926, 0.8151). A website for quick pre-screening online was also developed as part of the study. |
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