Spatial–temporal variation, decoupling effects and prediction of marine fishery based on modified ecological footprint model: Case study of 11 coastal provinces in China

The ecological security of global marine fishery is facing severe threat. Overfishing and pollution contributes to drastic declines in sustainable fishing yields and generally curtails the ecological resilience of marine systems. However, marine fishery ecological system provides an essential source...

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Autores principales:	Fanzhen Kong, Wanglai Cui, Henghui Xi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Marine fishery Ecological footprint model Elastic decoupling effects Ecological footprint prediction Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/c32e914763174b00890adc0193aaf0f2
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:c32e914763174b00890adc0193aaf0f22021-12-01T05:01:43ZSpatial–temporal variation, decoupling effects and prediction of marine fishery based on modified ecological footprint model: Case study of 11 coastal provinces in China1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108271https://doaj.org/article/c32e914763174b00890adc0193aaf0f22021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21009365https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XThe ecological security of global marine fishery is facing severe threat. Overfishing and pollution contributes to drastic declines in sustainable fishing yields and generally curtails the ecological resilience of marine systems. However, marine fishery ecological system provides an essential source of sustenance and economic livelihood for populations throughout the world, and is considered the “backbone” of global food and nutrition security. Thus, sustaining marine fishery ecological security is essential for the future of economic and food security. This study used the modified ecological footprint model and Tapio elastic decoupling model to further research the spatial–temporal variation characteristics of marine fishery ecological footprint (EF) and the decoupling effects related to the fishery economy from 2010 to 2019 of 11 coastal provinces in China. The results showed that marine fishery EF from 2010 to 2019 of 11 coastal provinces in China increased in a fluctuating manner. The differences of spatial distribution pattern expanded, and “polarization” was prominent. The biocapacities (BC) of marine fishery were consistently stable overall, and those of the southern provinces were slightly better than those in the northern provinces. Spatial distribution pattern changed from relative dispersion to gradual concentration. Ecological deficit (ED) was continuously exacerbated in marine fishery, represented by the spatial expansion. Decoupling effects between the marine fishery EF and fishery economy in China were mainly subjected to weak decoupling, strong decoupling, and expansive negative decoupling status. Additionally, combined with the prediction analysis of ARIMA model and GM(1,1) model, the marine fishery EF in China will increase overall in the future five years. The ecological security situation of marine fishery is extremely serious. These research findings provide profound significance for marine fishery sustainable development in China as well as for the coastal areas in other countries and serve as an important reference for the ecological security governance of global marine fishery.Fanzhen KongWanglai CuiHenghui XiElsevierarticleMarine fisheryEcological footprint modelElastic decoupling effectsEcological footprint predictionEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 132, Iss , Pp 108271- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Marine fishery Ecological footprint model Elastic decoupling effects Ecological footprint prediction Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Marine fishery Ecological footprint model Elastic decoupling effects Ecological footprint prediction Ecology QH540-549.5 Fanzhen Kong Wanglai Cui Henghui Xi Spatial–temporal variation, decoupling effects and prediction of marine fishery based on modified ecological footprint model: Case study of 11 coastal provinces in China
description	The ecological security of global marine fishery is facing severe threat. Overfishing and pollution contributes to drastic declines in sustainable fishing yields and generally curtails the ecological resilience of marine systems. However, marine fishery ecological system provides an essential source of sustenance and economic livelihood for populations throughout the world, and is considered the “backbone” of global food and nutrition security. Thus, sustaining marine fishery ecological security is essential for the future of economic and food security. This study used the modified ecological footprint model and Tapio elastic decoupling model to further research the spatial–temporal variation characteristics of marine fishery ecological footprint (EF) and the decoupling effects related to the fishery economy from 2010 to 2019 of 11 coastal provinces in China. The results showed that marine fishery EF from 2010 to 2019 of 11 coastal provinces in China increased in a fluctuating manner. The differences of spatial distribution pattern expanded, and “polarization” was prominent. The biocapacities (BC) of marine fishery were consistently stable overall, and those of the southern provinces were slightly better than those in the northern provinces. Spatial distribution pattern changed from relative dispersion to gradual concentration. Ecological deficit (ED) was continuously exacerbated in marine fishery, represented by the spatial expansion. Decoupling effects between the marine fishery EF and fishery economy in China were mainly subjected to weak decoupling, strong decoupling, and expansive negative decoupling status. Additionally, combined with the prediction analysis of ARIMA model and GM(1,1) model, the marine fishery EF in China will increase overall in the future five years. The ecological security situation of marine fishery is extremely serious. These research findings provide profound significance for marine fishery sustainable development in China as well as for the coastal areas in other countries and serve as an important reference for the ecological security governance of global marine fishery.
format	article
author	Fanzhen Kong Wanglai Cui Henghui Xi
author_facet	Fanzhen Kong Wanglai Cui Henghui Xi
author_sort	Fanzhen Kong
title	Spatial–temporal variation, decoupling effects and prediction of marine fishery based on modified ecological footprint model: Case study of 11 coastal provinces in China
title_short	Spatial–temporal variation, decoupling effects and prediction of marine fishery based on modified ecological footprint model: Case study of 11 coastal provinces in China
title_full	Spatial–temporal variation, decoupling effects and prediction of marine fishery based on modified ecological footprint model: Case study of 11 coastal provinces in China
title_fullStr	Spatial–temporal variation, decoupling effects and prediction of marine fishery based on modified ecological footprint model: Case study of 11 coastal provinces in China
title_full_unstemmed	Spatial–temporal variation, decoupling effects and prediction of marine fishery based on modified ecological footprint model: Case study of 11 coastal provinces in China
title_sort	spatial–temporal variation, decoupling effects and prediction of marine fishery based on modified ecological footprint model: case study of 11 coastal provinces in china
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/c32e914763174b00890adc0193aaf0f2
work_keys_str_mv	AT fanzhenkong spatialtemporalvariationdecouplingeffectsandpredictionofmarinefisherybasedonmodifiedecologicalfootprintmodelcasestudyof11coastalprovincesinchina AT wanglaicui spatialtemporalvariationdecouplingeffectsandpredictionofmarinefisherybasedonmodifiedecologicalfootprintmodelcasestudyof11coastalprovincesinchina AT henghuixi spatialtemporalvariationdecouplingeffectsandpredictionofmarinefisherybasedonmodifiedecologicalfootprintmodelcasestudyof11coastalprovincesinchina
_version_	1718405626478985216

Spatial–temporal variation, decoupling effects and prediction of marine fishery based on modified ecological footprint model: Case study of 11 coastal provinces in China

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