Extensions of the SEIR model for the analysis of tailored social distancing and tracing approaches to cope with COVID-19

Abstract In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide face the challenge of designing tailored measures of epidemic control to provide reliable health protection while allowing societal and economic activity. In this paper, we propose an extension of the epidemiological SEIR model...

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Autores principales:	Veronika Grimm, Friederike Mengel, Martin Schmidt
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/c34c1e0f84214058bc4487fd81d57309
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:c34c1e0f84214058bc4487fd81d573092021-12-02T14:22:00ZExtensions of the SEIR model for the analysis of tailored social distancing and tracing approaches to cope with COVID-1910.1038/s41598-021-83540-22045-2322https://doaj.org/article/c34c1e0f84214058bc4487fd81d573092021-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-83540-2https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide face the challenge of designing tailored measures of epidemic control to provide reliable health protection while allowing societal and economic activity. In this paper, we propose an extension of the epidemiological SEIR model to enable a detailed analysis of commonly discussed tailored measures of epidemic control—among them group-specific protection and the use of tracing apps. We introduce groups into the SEIR model that may differ both in their underlying parameters as well as in their behavioral response to public health interventions. Moreover, we allow for different infectiousness parameters within and across groups, different asymptomatic, hospitalization, and lethality rates, as well as different take-up rates of tracing apps. We then examine predictions from these models for a variety of scenarios. Our results visualize the sharp trade-offs between different goals of epidemic control, namely a low death toll, avoiding overload of the health system, and a short duration of the epidemic. We show that a combination of tailored mechanisms, e.g., the protection of vulnerable groups together with a “trace & isolate” approach, can be effective in preventing a high death toll. Protection of vulnerable groups without further measures requires unrealistically strict isolation. A key insight is that high compliance is critical for the effectiveness of a “trace & isolate” approach. Our model allows to analyze the interplay of group-specific social distancing and tracing also beyond our case study in scenarios with a large number of groups reflecting, e.g., sectoral, regional, or age differentiation and group-specific behavioural responses.Veronika GrimmFriederike MengelMartin SchmidtNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-16 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Veronika Grimm Friederike Mengel Martin Schmidt Extensions of the SEIR model for the analysis of tailored social distancing and tracing approaches to cope with COVID-19
description	Abstract In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide face the challenge of designing tailored measures of epidemic control to provide reliable health protection while allowing societal and economic activity. In this paper, we propose an extension of the epidemiological SEIR model to enable a detailed analysis of commonly discussed tailored measures of epidemic control—among them group-specific protection and the use of tracing apps. We introduce groups into the SEIR model that may differ both in their underlying parameters as well as in their behavioral response to public health interventions. Moreover, we allow for different infectiousness parameters within and across groups, different asymptomatic, hospitalization, and lethality rates, as well as different take-up rates of tracing apps. We then examine predictions from these models for a variety of scenarios. Our results visualize the sharp trade-offs between different goals of epidemic control, namely a low death toll, avoiding overload of the health system, and a short duration of the epidemic. We show that a combination of tailored mechanisms, e.g., the protection of vulnerable groups together with a “trace & isolate” approach, can be effective in preventing a high death toll. Protection of vulnerable groups without further measures requires unrealistically strict isolation. A key insight is that high compliance is critical for the effectiveness of a “trace & isolate” approach. Our model allows to analyze the interplay of group-specific social distancing and tracing also beyond our case study in scenarios with a large number of groups reflecting, e.g., sectoral, regional, or age differentiation and group-specific behavioural responses.
format	article
author	Veronika Grimm Friederike Mengel Martin Schmidt
author_facet	Veronika Grimm Friederike Mengel Martin Schmidt
author_sort	Veronika Grimm
title	Extensions of the SEIR model for the analysis of tailored social distancing and tracing approaches to cope with COVID-19
title_short	Extensions of the SEIR model for the analysis of tailored social distancing and tracing approaches to cope with COVID-19
title_full	Extensions of the SEIR model for the analysis of tailored social distancing and tracing approaches to cope with COVID-19
title_fullStr	Extensions of the SEIR model for the analysis of tailored social distancing and tracing approaches to cope with COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed	Extensions of the SEIR model for the analysis of tailored social distancing and tracing approaches to cope with COVID-19
title_sort	extensions of the seir model for the analysis of tailored social distancing and tracing approaches to cope with covid-19
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/c34c1e0f84214058bc4487fd81d57309
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Extensions of the SEIR model for the analysis of tailored social distancing and tracing approaches to cope with COVID-19

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