An Integrated, Probabilistic Modeling Approach to Assess the Evolution of Barrier-Island Systems Over the Twenty-First Century

Barrier-island systems, spanning ∼7% of the world’s coastlines, are of great importance to society because not only they provide attractive, liveable space for coastal communities but also act as the first line of defense from coastal storms. As many of these unique coastal systems are affected by b...

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Autores principales:	Janaka Bamunawala, Ad van der Spek, Ali Dastgheib, A. Brad Murray, Roshanka Ranasinghe
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:	barrier-island evolution climate change barrier drowning probabilistic modeling input uncertainties Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/c37fefcabe4740389eaf891eb062f79f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:c37fefcabe4740389eaf891eb062f79f2021-11-22T07:24:38ZAn Integrated, Probabilistic Modeling Approach to Assess the Evolution of Barrier-Island Systems Over the Twenty-First Century2296-774510.3389/fmars.2021.755699https://doaj.org/article/c37fefcabe4740389eaf891eb062f79f2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.755699/fullhttps://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745Barrier-island systems, spanning ∼7% of the world’s coastlines, are of great importance to society because not only they provide attractive, liveable space for coastal communities but also act as the first line of defense from coastal storms. As many of these unique coastal systems are affected by both oceanic and terrestrial processes, it is necessary to consider the holistic behavior of applicable terrestrial and coastal processes when investigating their evolution under plausible future scenarios for climate change, population growth and human activities. Such holistic assessments, also accounting for uncertainties, can readily be achieved via reduced-complexity modeling techniques, owing to their much faster simulation times compared to sophisticated process-based models. Here, we develop and demonstrate a novel probabilistic modeling framework to obtain stochastic projections of barrier-island evolution over the twenty-first century while accounting for relevant oceanic and terrestrial processes under climate change impacts and anthropogenic activities. The model is here demonstrated at the Chandeleur islands (Louisiana, United States) under the four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) with results indicating that there are significant uncertainties in projected end-century barrier-island migration distance and available barrier freeboard under the high emission scenario RCP 8.5. The range of uncertainties in these projections underscores the value of stochastic projections in supporting the development of effective adaptation strategies for these fragile coastal systems.Janaka BamunawalaJanaka BamunawalaAd van der SpekAd van der SpekAli DastgheibA. Brad MurrayRoshanka RanasingheRoshanka RanasingheRoshanka RanasingheFrontiers Media S.A.articlebarrier-island evolutionclimate changebarrier drowningprobabilistic modelinginput uncertaintiesScienceQGeneral. Including nature conservation, geographical distributionQH1-199.5ENFrontiers in Marine Science, Vol 8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	barrier-island evolution climate change barrier drowning probabilistic modeling input uncertainties Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5
spellingShingle	barrier-island evolution climate change barrier drowning probabilistic modeling input uncertainties Science Q General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution QH1-199.5 Janaka Bamunawala Janaka Bamunawala Ad van der Spek Ad van der Spek Ali Dastgheib A. Brad Murray Roshanka Ranasinghe Roshanka Ranasinghe Roshanka Ranasinghe An Integrated, Probabilistic Modeling Approach to Assess the Evolution of Barrier-Island Systems Over the Twenty-First Century
description	Barrier-island systems, spanning ∼7% of the world’s coastlines, are of great importance to society because not only they provide attractive, liveable space for coastal communities but also act as the first line of defense from coastal storms. As many of these unique coastal systems are affected by both oceanic and terrestrial processes, it is necessary to consider the holistic behavior of applicable terrestrial and coastal processes when investigating their evolution under plausible future scenarios for climate change, population growth and human activities. Such holistic assessments, also accounting for uncertainties, can readily be achieved via reduced-complexity modeling techniques, owing to their much faster simulation times compared to sophisticated process-based models. Here, we develop and demonstrate a novel probabilistic modeling framework to obtain stochastic projections of barrier-island evolution over the twenty-first century while accounting for relevant oceanic and terrestrial processes under climate change impacts and anthropogenic activities. The model is here demonstrated at the Chandeleur islands (Louisiana, United States) under the four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) with results indicating that there are significant uncertainties in projected end-century barrier-island migration distance and available barrier freeboard under the high emission scenario RCP 8.5. The range of uncertainties in these projections underscores the value of stochastic projections in supporting the development of effective adaptation strategies for these fragile coastal systems.
format	article
author	Janaka Bamunawala Janaka Bamunawala Ad van der Spek Ad van der Spek Ali Dastgheib A. Brad Murray Roshanka Ranasinghe Roshanka Ranasinghe Roshanka Ranasinghe
author_facet	Janaka Bamunawala Janaka Bamunawala Ad van der Spek Ad van der Spek Ali Dastgheib A. Brad Murray Roshanka Ranasinghe Roshanka Ranasinghe Roshanka Ranasinghe
author_sort	Janaka Bamunawala
title	An Integrated, Probabilistic Modeling Approach to Assess the Evolution of Barrier-Island Systems Over the Twenty-First Century
title_short	An Integrated, Probabilistic Modeling Approach to Assess the Evolution of Barrier-Island Systems Over the Twenty-First Century
title_full	An Integrated, Probabilistic Modeling Approach to Assess the Evolution of Barrier-Island Systems Over the Twenty-First Century
title_fullStr	An Integrated, Probabilistic Modeling Approach to Assess the Evolution of Barrier-Island Systems Over the Twenty-First Century
title_full_unstemmed	An Integrated, Probabilistic Modeling Approach to Assess the Evolution of Barrier-Island Systems Over the Twenty-First Century
title_sort	integrated, probabilistic modeling approach to assess the evolution of barrier-island systems over the twenty-first century
publisher	Frontiers Media S.A.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/c37fefcabe4740389eaf891eb062f79f
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An Integrated, Probabilistic Modeling Approach to Assess the Evolution of Barrier-Island Systems Over the Twenty-First Century

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