The Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking.

<h4>Background</h4>Nondaily smoking has been on the rise, especially in Mexico. While Mexico has strengthened its tobacco control policies, their effects on nondaily smokers have gone largely unexamined. We developed a simulation model to estimate the impact of tobacco control policies o...

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Autores principales:	Luz María Sánchez-Romero, Luis Zavala-Arciniega, Luz Myriam Reynales-Shigematsu, Belén Sáenz de Miera-Juárez, Zhe Yuan, Yameng Li, Yan Kwan Lau, Nancy L Fleischer, Rafael Meza, James F Thrasher, David T Levy
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/c3bafafaf6c249688b548b18e37edbe1
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:c3bafafaf6c249688b548b18e37edbe12021-12-02T20:19:40ZThe Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0248215https://doaj.org/article/c3bafafaf6c249688b548b18e37edbe12021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248215https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Background</h4>Nondaily smoking has been on the rise, especially in Mexico. While Mexico has strengthened its tobacco control policies, their effects on nondaily smokers have gone largely unexamined. We developed a simulation model to estimate the impact of tobacco control policies on daily and nondaily smoking in Mexico.<h4>Methods</h4>A previously validated Mexico SimSmoke model that estimated overall trends in smoking prevalence from 2002 through 2013 was extended to 2018 and adapted to distinguish daily and nondaily smoking prevalence. The model was then validated using data from Mexican surveys through 2016. To gauge the potential effects of policies, we compared the trends in smoking under current policies with trends from policies kept at their 2002 levels.<h4>Results</h4>Between 2002 and 2016, Mexico SimSmoke underestimated the reduction in male and female daily smoking rates. For nondaily smoking, SimSmoke predicted a decline among both males and females, while survey rates showed increasing rates in both genders, primarily among ages 15-44. Of the total reduction in smoking rates predicted by the model by 2018, tax policies account for more than 55%, followed by health warnings, cessation treatment, smoke-free air laws, and tobacco control spending.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Although Mexico SimSmoke did not successfully explain trends in daily and nondaily smoking, it helps to identify gaps in surveillance and policy evaluation for nondaily smokers. Future research should consider appropriate measures of nondaily smoking prevalence, trajectories between daily and nondaily smoking, and the separate impact of tobacco control policies on each group.Luz María Sánchez-RomeroLuis Zavala-ArciniegaLuz Myriam Reynales-ShigematsuBelén Sáenz de Miera-JuárezZhe YuanYameng LiYan Kwan LauNancy L FleischerRafael MezaJames F ThrasherDavid T LevyPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 6, p e0248215 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Luz María Sánchez-Romero Luis Zavala-Arciniega Luz Myriam Reynales-Shigematsu Belén Sáenz de Miera-Juárez Zhe Yuan Yameng Li Yan Kwan Lau Nancy L Fleischer Rafael Meza James F Thrasher David T Levy The Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking.
description	<h4>Background</h4>Nondaily smoking has been on the rise, especially in Mexico. While Mexico has strengthened its tobacco control policies, their effects on nondaily smokers have gone largely unexamined. We developed a simulation model to estimate the impact of tobacco control policies on daily and nondaily smoking in Mexico.<h4>Methods</h4>A previously validated Mexico SimSmoke model that estimated overall trends in smoking prevalence from 2002 through 2013 was extended to 2018 and adapted to distinguish daily and nondaily smoking prevalence. The model was then validated using data from Mexican surveys through 2016. To gauge the potential effects of policies, we compared the trends in smoking under current policies with trends from policies kept at their 2002 levels.<h4>Results</h4>Between 2002 and 2016, Mexico SimSmoke underestimated the reduction in male and female daily smoking rates. For nondaily smoking, SimSmoke predicted a decline among both males and females, while survey rates showed increasing rates in both genders, primarily among ages 15-44. Of the total reduction in smoking rates predicted by the model by 2018, tax policies account for more than 55%, followed by health warnings, cessation treatment, smoke-free air laws, and tobacco control spending.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Although Mexico SimSmoke did not successfully explain trends in daily and nondaily smoking, it helps to identify gaps in surveillance and policy evaluation for nondaily smokers. Future research should consider appropriate measures of nondaily smoking prevalence, trajectories between daily and nondaily smoking, and the separate impact of tobacco control policies on each group.
format	article
author	Luz María Sánchez-Romero Luis Zavala-Arciniega Luz Myriam Reynales-Shigematsu Belén Sáenz de Miera-Juárez Zhe Yuan Yameng Li Yan Kwan Lau Nancy L Fleischer Rafael Meza James F Thrasher David T Levy
author_facet	Luz María Sánchez-Romero Luis Zavala-Arciniega Luz Myriam Reynales-Shigematsu Belén Sáenz de Miera-Juárez Zhe Yuan Yameng Li Yan Kwan Lau Nancy L Fleischer Rafael Meza James F Thrasher David T Levy
author_sort	Luz María Sánchez-Romero
title	The Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking.
title_short	The Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking.
title_full	The Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking.
title_fullStr	The Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking.
title_full_unstemmed	The Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking.
title_sort	mexico simsmoke tobacco control policy model: development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/c3bafafaf6c249688b548b18e37edbe1
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The Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking.

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