Tipping point realized in cod fishery

Abstract Understanding tipping point dynamics in harvested ecosystems is of crucial importance for sustainable resource management because ignoring their existence imperils social-ecological systems that depend on them. Fisheries collapses provide the best known examples for realizing tipping points...

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Autores principales:	Christian Möllmann, Xochitl Cormon, Steffen Funk, Saskia A. Otto, Jörn O. Schmidt, Heike Schwermer, Camilla Sguotti, Rudi Voss, Martin Quaas
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/c45dd2ce88074eae849c5db322718119
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:c45dd2ce88074eae849c5db3227181192021-12-02T16:08:06ZTipping point realized in cod fishery10.1038/s41598-021-93843-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/c45dd2ce88074eae849c5db3227181192021-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-93843-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Understanding tipping point dynamics in harvested ecosystems is of crucial importance for sustainable resource management because ignoring their existence imperils social-ecological systems that depend on them. Fisheries collapses provide the best known examples for realizing tipping points with catastrophic ecological, economic and social consequences. However, present-day fisheries management systems still largely ignore the potential of their resources to exhibit such abrupt changes towards irreversible low productive states. Using a combination of statistical changepoint analysis and stochastic cusp modelling, here we show that Western Baltic cod is beyond such a tipping point caused by unsustainable exploitation levels that failed to account for changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, climate change stabilizes a novel and likely irreversible low productivity state of this fish stock that is not adapted to a fast warming environment. We hence argue that ignorance of non-linear resource dynamics has caused the demise of an economically and culturally important social-ecological system which calls for better adaptation of fisheries systems to climate change.Christian MöllmannXochitl CormonSteffen FunkSaskia A. OttoJörn O. SchmidtHeike SchwermerCamilla SguottiRudi VossMartin QuaasNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Christian Möllmann Xochitl Cormon Steffen Funk Saskia A. Otto Jörn O. Schmidt Heike Schwermer Camilla Sguotti Rudi Voss Martin Quaas Tipping point realized in cod fishery
description	Abstract Understanding tipping point dynamics in harvested ecosystems is of crucial importance for sustainable resource management because ignoring their existence imperils social-ecological systems that depend on them. Fisheries collapses provide the best known examples for realizing tipping points with catastrophic ecological, economic and social consequences. However, present-day fisheries management systems still largely ignore the potential of their resources to exhibit such abrupt changes towards irreversible low productive states. Using a combination of statistical changepoint analysis and stochastic cusp modelling, here we show that Western Baltic cod is beyond such a tipping point caused by unsustainable exploitation levels that failed to account for changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, climate change stabilizes a novel and likely irreversible low productivity state of this fish stock that is not adapted to a fast warming environment. We hence argue that ignorance of non-linear resource dynamics has caused the demise of an economically and culturally important social-ecological system which calls for better adaptation of fisheries systems to climate change.
format	article
author	Christian Möllmann Xochitl Cormon Steffen Funk Saskia A. Otto Jörn O. Schmidt Heike Schwermer Camilla Sguotti Rudi Voss Martin Quaas
author_facet	Christian Möllmann Xochitl Cormon Steffen Funk Saskia A. Otto Jörn O. Schmidt Heike Schwermer Camilla Sguotti Rudi Voss Martin Quaas
author_sort	Christian Möllmann
title	Tipping point realized in cod fishery
title_short	Tipping point realized in cod fishery
title_full	Tipping point realized in cod fishery
title_fullStr	Tipping point realized in cod fishery
title_full_unstemmed	Tipping point realized in cod fishery
title_sort	tipping point realized in cod fishery
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/c45dd2ce88074eae849c5db322718119
work_keys_str_mv	AT christianmollmann tippingpointrealizedincodfishery AT xochitlcormon tippingpointrealizedincodfishery AT steffenfunk tippingpointrealizedincodfishery AT saskiaaotto tippingpointrealizedincodfishery AT jornoschmidt tippingpointrealizedincodfishery AT heikeschwermer tippingpointrealizedincodfishery AT camillasguotti tippingpointrealizedincodfishery AT rudivoss tippingpointrealizedincodfishery AT martinquaas tippingpointrealizedincodfishery
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Tipping point realized in cod fishery

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