A comparison between two simulation models for spread of foot-and-mouth disease.

Two widely used simulation models of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were used in order to compare the models' predictions in term of disease spread, consequence, and the ranking of the applied control strategies, and to discuss the effect of the way disease spread is modeled on the predicted outc...

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Autores principales:	Tariq Halasa, Anette Boklund, Anders Stockmarr, Claes Enøe, Lasse E Christiansen
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2014
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/c56fe092e5e84b9fa3dae5f6a3caa47f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:c56fe092e5e84b9fa3dae5f6a3caa47f2021-11-18T08:26:19ZA comparison between two simulation models for spread of foot-and-mouth disease.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0092521https://doaj.org/article/c56fe092e5e84b9fa3dae5f6a3caa47f2014-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24667525/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Two widely used simulation models of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were used in order to compare the models' predictions in term of disease spread, consequence, and the ranking of the applied control strategies, and to discuss the effect of the way disease spread is modeled on the predicted outcomes of each model. The DTU-DADS (version 0.100), and ISP (version 2.001.11) were used to simulate a hypothetical spread of FMD in Denmark. Actual herd type, movements, and location data in the period 1st October 2006 and 30th September 2007 was used. The models simulated the spread of FMD using 3 different control scenarios: 1) A basic scenario representing EU and Danish control strategies, 2) pre-emptive depopulation of susceptible herds within a 500 meters radius around the detected herds, and 3) suppressive vaccination of susceptible herds within a 1,000 meters radius around the detected herds. Depopulation and vaccination started 14 days following the detection of the first infected herd. Five thousand index herds were selected randomly, of which there were 1,000 cattle herds located in high density cattle areas and 1,000 in low density cattle areas, 1,000 swine herds located in high density swine areas and 1,000 in low density swine areas, and 1,000 sheep herds. Generally, DTU-DADS predicted larger, longer duration and costlier epidemics than ISP, except when epidemics started in cattle herds located in high density cattle areas. ISP supported suppressive vaccination rather than pre-emptive depopulation, while DTU-DADS was indifferent to the alternative control strategies. Nonetheless, the absolute differences between control strategies were small making the choice of control strategy during an outbreak to be most likely based on practical reasons.Tariq HalasaAnette BoklundAnders StockmarrClaes EnøeLasse E ChristiansenPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 9, Iss 3, p e92521 (2014)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Tariq Halasa Anette Boklund Anders Stockmarr Claes Enøe Lasse E Christiansen A comparison between two simulation models for spread of foot-and-mouth disease.
description	Two widely used simulation models of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were used in order to compare the models' predictions in term of disease spread, consequence, and the ranking of the applied control strategies, and to discuss the effect of the way disease spread is modeled on the predicted outcomes of each model. The DTU-DADS (version 0.100), and ISP (version 2.001.11) were used to simulate a hypothetical spread of FMD in Denmark. Actual herd type, movements, and location data in the period 1st October 2006 and 30th September 2007 was used. The models simulated the spread of FMD using 3 different control scenarios: 1) A basic scenario representing EU and Danish control strategies, 2) pre-emptive depopulation of susceptible herds within a 500 meters radius around the detected herds, and 3) suppressive vaccination of susceptible herds within a 1,000 meters radius around the detected herds. Depopulation and vaccination started 14 days following the detection of the first infected herd. Five thousand index herds were selected randomly, of which there were 1,000 cattle herds located in high density cattle areas and 1,000 in low density cattle areas, 1,000 swine herds located in high density swine areas and 1,000 in low density swine areas, and 1,000 sheep herds. Generally, DTU-DADS predicted larger, longer duration and costlier epidemics than ISP, except when epidemics started in cattle herds located in high density cattle areas. ISP supported suppressive vaccination rather than pre-emptive depopulation, while DTU-DADS was indifferent to the alternative control strategies. Nonetheless, the absolute differences between control strategies were small making the choice of control strategy during an outbreak to be most likely based on practical reasons.
format	article
author	Tariq Halasa Anette Boklund Anders Stockmarr Claes Enøe Lasse E Christiansen
author_facet	Tariq Halasa Anette Boklund Anders Stockmarr Claes Enøe Lasse E Christiansen
author_sort	Tariq Halasa
title	A comparison between two simulation models for spread of foot-and-mouth disease.
title_short	A comparison between two simulation models for spread of foot-and-mouth disease.
title_full	A comparison between two simulation models for spread of foot-and-mouth disease.
title_fullStr	A comparison between two simulation models for spread of foot-and-mouth disease.
title_full_unstemmed	A comparison between two simulation models for spread of foot-and-mouth disease.
title_sort	comparison between two simulation models for spread of foot-and-mouth disease.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2014
url	https://doaj.org/article/c56fe092e5e84b9fa3dae5f6a3caa47f
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A comparison between two simulation models for spread of foot-and-mouth disease.

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